THE NUMBERS, WITH RECEIPTS.
1 Crime forecasts on Chronopin: cited projections and data, each with its publisher, date and quote.
Approximately 25% lower global intentional-homicide rate in 2030 relative to 2015 if current trends continue; a cumulative rate reduction, not a 25% annual decline, all-crime forecast or number of deaths. The source’s “one quarter” is represented as 25%. Regional trajectories vary; the target is not treated as achieved. History: Same unit as the panel (cumulative % decline in global intentional-homicide rate relative to 2015) taken from three successive UN reports, so earlier values may reflect later data revisions; 2015 baseline is 0 by definition (rates: 5.9 per 100,000 in 2015, 5.1 in 2024).
“the global homicide rate in 2030 will be around one quarter lower than in 2015”
“The global homicide rate declined by 5 per cent between 2015 and 2022.”
“While global homicide rates fell by 12 per cent between 2015 and 2023.”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-28
25% (2030) → 5% (2022) → 12% (2023) → 14% (2024)
Approximately 25% lower global intentional-homicide rate in 2030 relative to 2015 if current trends continue; a cumulative rate reduction, not a 25% annual decline, all-crime forecast or number of deaths. The source’s “one quarter” is represented as 25%. Regional trajectories vary; the target is not treated as achieved. History: Same unit as the panel (cumulative % decline in global intentional-homicide rate relative to 2015) taken from three successive UN reports, so earlier values may reflect later data revisions; 2015 baseline is 0 by definition (rates: 5.9 per 100,000 in 2015, 5.1 in 2024).