THE NUMBERS, WITH RECEIPTS.
1 Disaster forecasts on Chronopin: cited projections and data, each with its publisher, date and quote.
Approximate global annual disaster count if the trajectory used in the 2022 assessment continues, not a prediction of where or when an individual disaster will occur. This is an older conditional projection, restated in a November 2025 UNDP article; it is not a new 2026 model run.
“If we continue this trajectory, by 2030, the world will face some 560 disasters per year”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-28
560 /year (2030)
Approximate global annual disaster count if the trajectory used in the 2022 assessment continues, not a prediction of where or when an individual disaster will occur. This is an older conditional projection, restated in a November 2025 UNDP article; it is not a new 2026 model run.