THE NUMBERS, WITH RECEIPTS.
5 Finance forecasts on Chronopin: cited projections and data, each with its publisher, date and quote.
Share of US businesses on Ramp with a payment for an AI product or service in the month.
Checked 2026-10-28
Interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes, percent, calendar-year average (2023-2036 columns read from the xlsx). CBO February 2026 baseline, calendar years; 2026-2036 are CBO projections (estimates under current law), and CBO's most recent year (2025) may still be an estimate rather than final data. History and projection come from the same CBO release, so there is no definition break. Files were opened in Chrome (cbo.gov returns 403 to curl/WebFetch) and read from the xlsx and the historical CSV; history and projection values here are rounded to 1-2 decimals from the CSV (quotes show the raw digits).
“10-Year Treasury note Percent 3.956 4.208 4.288 4.126 4.253 4.302 4.328 4.341 4.351 4.359 4.365 4.373 4.381 4.387”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-28
Federal funds rate, percent, calendar-year average (2023-2036 columns read from the xlsx). This is CBO's annual average, not the year-end SEP midpoint. CBO February 2026 baseline, calendar years; 2026-2036 are CBO projections (estimates under current law), and CBO's most recent year (2025) may still be an estimate rather than final data. History and projection come from the same CBO release, so there is no definition break. Files were opened in Chrome (cbo.gov returns 403 to curl/WebFetch) and read from the xlsx and the historical CSV; history and projection values here are rounded to 1-2 decimals from the CSV (quotes show the raw digits).
“Federal funds rate Percent 5.024 5.142 4.205 3.452 3.388 3.39 3.388 3.387 3.383 3.362 3.347 3.339 3.334 3.331”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-28
Projection is the median participant view of the appropriate year-end federal funds rate under each participant's own policy assumption (columns 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, longer run 3.2, which is not plotted because it has no year). These are estimates, not a commitment. The history line is the monthly effective federal funds rate for December of each year (Board of Governors via FRED; 2019 1.55, 2020 0.09, 2021 0.08 read from the same file), a different definition from the SEP's year-end target midpoint, so the join is approximate: December 2025's effective rate 3.72 versus the SEP's 4.1 for end-2026 follows the September 2026 hike to a 3.75-4.00 range (reported). The FRED file was read via WebFetch (direct curl failed); the Fed table was read from the Fed's own HTML page.
“Memo: Projected appropriate policy path Federal funds rate 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.2 4.1–4.4 3.6–4.4 3.1–4.1 3.1–3.6 3.0–3.6 (June projection 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.1)”
“2022-12-01 4.10 / 2023-12-01 5.33 / 2024-12-01 4.48 / 2025-12-01 3.72 (Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US); Units: Percent)”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-28
Real (inflation-adjusted) annual growth in global direct premiums, per Swiss Re Institute sigma 2/2026, not nominal premium volume or other publishers' (for example Allianz euro nominal) series. 2026 and 2027 are Swiss Re forecasts (estimates); 2023-2025 are Swiss Re's own estimates from Figure 7 of the same report, read from the chart's data labels in the PDF text. Insurance is not one of the fixed categories, so the panel uses Finance, the closest. Only three history years are published in Figure 7.
“We estimate total premium growth (life and non-life) of 1.3% in real terms (2025: 3.9%) before a modest recovery to 1.6% in 2027 and a return to the long-term trend of 2% thereafter”
“Real premium growth, total, non-life and life, 2023-2027F. Source: Swiss Re Institute”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-28
33.85% (2023-06-01) → 34.65% (2023-07-01) → 36.07% (2023-08-01) → 36.57% (2023-09-01) → 37.39% (2023-10-01) → 38.53% (2023-11-01) → 40.67% (2023-12-01) → 42.09% (2024-01-01) → 42.73% (2024-02-01) → 43.06% (2024-03-01) → 42.75% (2024-04-01) → 43.07% (2024-05-01) → 44% (2024-06-01) → 45.48% (2024-07-01) → 46.96% (2024-08-01) → 46.68% (2024-09-01) → 47.09% (2024-10-01) → 47.94% (2024-11-01) → 48.4% (2024-12-01) → 50.2% (2025-01-01) → 52.46% (2025-02-01) → 53.38% (2025-03-01) → 54.99% (2025-04-01) → 56.64% (2025-05-01) → 57.31% (2025-06-01) → 57.66% (2025-07-01) → 58.03% (2025-08-01) → 58.14% (2025-09-01) → 58.49% (2025-10-01) → 58.34% (2025-11-01) → 58.1% (2025-12-01) → 60.4% (2026-01-01) → 65.3% (2026-02-01) → 68.79% (2026-03-01) → 70.29% (2026-04-01) → 72.08% (2026-05-01) → 72.53% (2026-06-01) → 72.34% (2026-07-01) → 73.12% (2026-08-01) → 73.69% (2026-09-01) → 25.66% (2023-06-01) → 24.53% (2023-07-01) → 25.39% (2023-08-01) → 26.49% (2023-09-01) → 27.25% (2023-10-01) → 28.16% (2023-11-01) → 29.41% (2023-12-01) → 30.4% (2024-01-01) → 30.64% (2024-02-01) → 31.19% (2024-03-01) → 30.8% (2024-04-01) → 31.16% (2024-05-01) → 31.37% (2024-06-01) → 31.83% (2024-07-01) → 32.06% (2024-08-01) → 32.9% (2024-09-01) → 33.52% (2024-10-01) → 34.17% (2024-11-01) → 34.5% (2024-12-01) → 35.56% (2025-01-01) → 36.66% (2025-02-01) → 37.49% (2025-03-01) → 39% (2025-04-01) → 40.3% (2025-05-01) → 41.18% (2025-06-01) → 42.54% (2025-07-01) → 43.49% (2025-08-01) → 43.8% (2025-09-01) → 43.61% (2025-10-01) → 44.43% (2025-11-01) → 44.5% (2025-12-01) → 45.52% (2026-01-01) → 47.74% (2026-02-01) → 50.15% (2026-03-01) → 51.98% (2026-04-01) → 53.24% (2026-05-01) → 53.98% (2026-06-01) → 54.84% (2026-07-01) → 55.24% (2026-08-01) → 55.86% (2026-09-01)
Share of US businesses on Ramp with a payment for an AI product or service in the month.
4.13% (2026) → 4.25% (2027) → 4.3% (2028) → 4.33% (2029) → 4.34% (2030) → 4.35% (2031) → 4.36% (2032) → 4.37% (2033) → 4.37% (2034) → 4.38% (2035) → 4.39% (2036) → 1.84% (2016) → 2.33% (2017) → 2.91% (2018) → 2.14% (2019) → 0.89% (2020) → 1.44% (2021) → 2.95% (2022) → 3.96% (2023) → 4.21% (2024) → 4.29% (2025)
Interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes, percent, calendar-year average (2023-2036 columns read from the xlsx). CBO February 2026 baseline, calendar years; 2026-2036 are CBO projections (estimates under current law), and CBO's most recent year (2025) may still be an estimate rather than final data. History and projection come from the same CBO release, so there is no definition break. Files were opened in Chrome (cbo.gov returns 403 to curl/WebFetch) and read from the xlsx and the historical CSV; history and projection values here are rounded to 1-2 decimals from the CSV (quotes show the raw digits).
3.45% (2026) → 3.39% (2027) → 3.39% (2028) → 3.39% (2029) → 3.39% (2030) → 3.38% (2031) → 3.36% (2032) → 3.35% (2033) → 3.34% (2034) → 3.33% (2035) → 3.33% (2036) → 0.4% (2016) → 1% (2017) → 1.83% (2018) → 2.16% (2019) → 0.38% (2020) → 0.08% (2021) → 1.68% (2022) → 5.02% (2023) → 5.14% (2024) → 4.21% (2025)
Federal funds rate, percent, calendar-year average (2023-2036 columns read from the xlsx). This is CBO's annual average, not the year-end SEP midpoint. CBO February 2026 baseline, calendar years; 2026-2036 are CBO projections (estimates under current law), and CBO's most recent year (2025) may still be an estimate rather than final data. History and projection come from the same CBO release, so there is no definition break. Files were opened in Chrome (cbo.gov returns 403 to curl/WebFetch) and read from the xlsx and the historical CSV; history and projection values here are rounded to 1-2 decimals from the CSV (quotes show the raw digits).
4.1% (2026) → 4.1% (2027) → 3.9% (2028) → 3.6% (2029) → 1.55% (2019) → 0.09% (2020) → 0.08% (2021) → 4.1% (2022) → 5.33% (2023) → 4.48% (2024) → 3.72% (2025)
Projection is the median participant view of the appropriate year-end federal funds rate under each participant's own policy assumption (columns 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, longer run 3.2, which is not plotted because it has no year). These are estimates, not a commitment. The history line is the monthly effective federal funds rate for December of each year (Board of Governors via FRED; 2019 1.55, 2020 0.09, 2021 0.08 read from the same file), a different definition from the SEP's year-end target midpoint, so the join is approximate: December 2025's effective rate 3.72 versus the SEP's 4.1 for end-2026 follows the September 2026 hike to a 3.75-4.00 range (reported). The FRED file was read via WebFetch (direct curl failed); the Fed table was read from the Fed's own HTML page.
1.3% (2026) → 1.6% (2027) → 3.5% (2023) → 5.9% (2024) → 3.9% (2025)
Real (inflation-adjusted) annual growth in global direct premiums, per Swiss Re Institute sigma 2/2026, not nominal premium volume or other publishers' (for example Allianz euro nominal) series. 2026 and 2027 are Swiss Re forecasts (estimates); 2023-2025 are Swiss Re's own estimates from Figure 7 of the same report, read from the chart's data labels in the PDF text. Insurance is not one of the fixed categories, so the panel uses Finance, the closest. Only three history years are published in Figure 7.