THE NUMBERS, WITH RECEIPTS.
7 Food forecasts on Chronopin: cited projections and data, each with its publisher, date and quote.
Billions of tonnes of annual cereal production, under the baseline outlook. Weather, energy and fertilizer shocks can change the projection. This is not seafood production. History: FAO's own world cereal production (wheat + coarse grains + milled rice), million tonnes converted to billions of tonnes (/1000, 3 decimals); FAO footnote says production refers to the calendar year of the first year shown; 2025 is the latest season (2026 is only a forecast and omitted); the panel's projection is the OECD-FAO Outlook, a different compilation.
“Global cereal (grain) production is projected to increase steadily, reaching a record 3.22 billion tonnes by 2035.”
“World cereal market, Production (million tonnes): 2017/18 2690.8; 2018/19 2635.0; 2019/20 2711.1; 2020/21 2769.7; 2021/22 2809.0; 2022/23 2811.0; 2023/24 2863.3; 2024/25 2870.7; 2025/26 3042.0 (2026/27 forecast 2979.1)”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-28
Nominal US dollars, annual average ($/kg); 2019-2025 are World Bank reported annual averages, 2026-2027 are the World Bank's April 2026 forecasts (estimates, not outcomes). Forecasts rest on assumptions about the Middle East conflict and may be revised in the October 2026 update. October 2026 edition supersedes April; annual forecasts in the published native unit.
“Commodity Unit 2024 2025 2026f 2027f ... Cocoa $/kg 7.33 7.80 3.80 4.20”
“Cocoa ($/kg), annual nominal: 2019 2.34; 2020 2.37; 2021 2.43; 2022 2.39; 2023 3.28; 2024 7.33; 2025 7.8”
“Cocoa $/kg 7.33 7.80 4.90 5.40 5.35 -37.2 10.2 -0.9 3.80 4.20”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-29
Nominal US dollars, annual average ($/kg); 2019-2025 are World Bank reported annual averages, 2026-2027 are the World Bank's April 2026 forecasts (estimates, not outcomes). Forecasts rest on assumptions about the Middle East conflict and may be revised in the October 2026 update. October 2026 edition supersedes April; annual forecasts in the published native unit.
“Commodity Unit 2024 2025 2026f 2027f ... Coffee, Arabica $/kg 5.62 8.47 7.25 7.00”
“Coffee, Arabica ($/kg), annual nominal: 2019 2.88; 2020 3.32; 2021 4.51; 2022 5.63; 2023 4.54; 2024 5.62; 2025 8.47”
“Coffee, Arabica $/kg 5.62 8.47 7.35 7.20 7.00 -13.2 -2.0 -2.8 7.25 7.00”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-29
Nominal US dollars, annual average ($/mt); 2019-2025 are World Bank reported annual averages, 2026-2027 are the World Bank's April 2026 forecasts (estimates, not outcomes). Urea is the Eastern Europe benchmark. Forecasts rest on assumptions about the Middle East conflict and may be revised in the October 2026 update. October 2026 edition supersedes April; annual forecasts in the published native unit.
“Commodity Unit 2024 2025 2026f 2027f ... Urea, E. Europe $/mt 338 423 675 500”
“Urea ($/mt), annual nominal: 2019 245.3; 2020 229.1; 2021 483.2; 2022 700; 2023 358; 2024 338.3; 2025 422.7”
“Urea, E. Europe $/mt 338 423 510 429 368 20.6 -15.9 -14.2 675 500”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-29
Nominal US dollars, annual average ($/mt); 2019-2025 are World Bank reported annual averages, 2026-2027 are the World Bank's April 2026 forecasts (estimates, not outcomes). Benchmark is Thai 5% broken white rice. Forecasts rest on assumptions about the Middle East conflict and may be revised in the October 2026 update. October 2026 edition supersedes April; annual forecasts in the published native unit.
“Commodity Unit 2024 2025 2026f 2027f ... Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 588 408 401 413”
“Rice, Thai 5% ($/mt), annual nominal: 2019 418; 2020 496.8; 2021 458.3; 2022 436.8; 2023 553.7; 2024 588.4; 2025 407.8”
“Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 588 408 448 500 468 9.8 11.6 -6.4 401 413”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-29
Million tonnes. OECD-FAO data are in thousand tonnes and shown here divided by 1,000, rounded to 0.1. 2015-2024 are historical values; 2025 belongs to the Outlook's 2023-25 base period and is an estimate; 2026-2035 are projections.
“Global wheat production is projected to increase by 74 Mt from current levels to reach 877 Mt by 2035.”
“OECD Data Explorer, DF_OUTLOOK_2026_2035, World, Wheat production (thousand tonnes): 2024 799.4; 2025 817.2; 2030 841.6; 2035 877.0”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-28
Million tonnes ready-to-cook equivalent; OECD-FAO data are in thousand tonnes divided by 1,000. 2015-2024 historical, 2025 base-period estimate, 2026-2035 projection. Highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks are a stated downside risk.
“Poultry consumption is projected to reach 177 Mt ready‑to‑cook (rtc) by 2035, accounting for around two‑thirds of the additional meat consumed globally over the Outlook period”
“OECD Data Explorer, DF_OUTLOOK_2026_2035, World, Poultry meat consumption (thousand tonnes): 2024 147.9; 2025 152.4; 2030 164.7; 2035 176.9”
Projections are the cited publishers’ forecasts, not ChronoPin’s.
Checked 2026-10-28
3.22B tonnes (2035) → 2.69B tonnes (2017) → 2.64B tonnes (2018) → 2.71B tonnes (2019) → 2.77B tonnes (2020) → 2.81B tonnes (2021) → 2.81B tonnes (2022) → 2.86B tonnes (2023) → 2.87B tonnes (2024) → 3.04B tonnes (2025)
Billions of tonnes of annual cereal production, under the baseline outlook. Weather, energy and fertilizer shocks can change the projection. This is not seafood production. History: FAO's own world cereal production (wheat + coarse grains + milled rice), million tonnes converted to billions of tonnes (/1000, 3 decimals); FAO footnote says production refers to the calendar year of the first year shown; 2025 is the latest season (2026 is only a forecast and omitted); the panel's projection is the OECD-FAO Outlook, a different compilation.
$4.9/kg (2026) → $5.4/kg (2027) → $5.35/kg (2028) → $2.34/kg (2019) → $2.37/kg (2020) → $2.43/kg (2021) → $2.39/kg (2022) → $3.28/kg (2023) → $7.33/kg (2024) → $7.8/kg (2025)
Nominal US dollars, annual average ($/kg); 2019-2025 are World Bank reported annual averages, 2026-2027 are the World Bank's April 2026 forecasts (estimates, not outcomes). Forecasts rest on assumptions about the Middle East conflict and may be revised in the October 2026 update. October 2026 edition supersedes April; annual forecasts in the published native unit.
$7.35/kg (2026) → $7.2/kg (2027) → $7/kg (2028) → $2.88/kg (2019) → $3.32/kg (2020) → $4.51/kg (2021) → $5.63/kg (2022) → $4.54/kg (2023) → $5.62/kg (2024) → $8.47/kg (2025)
Nominal US dollars, annual average ($/kg); 2019-2025 are World Bank reported annual averages, 2026-2027 are the World Bank's April 2026 forecasts (estimates, not outcomes). Forecasts rest on assumptions about the Middle East conflict and may be revised in the October 2026 update. October 2026 edition supersedes April; annual forecasts in the published native unit.
$510/t (2026) → $429/t (2027) → $368/t (2028) → $245/t (2019) → $229/t (2020) → $483/t (2021) → $700/t (2022) → $358/t (2023) → $338/t (2024) → $423/t (2025)
Nominal US dollars, annual average ($/mt); 2019-2025 are World Bank reported annual averages, 2026-2027 are the World Bank's April 2026 forecasts (estimates, not outcomes). Urea is the Eastern Europe benchmark. Forecasts rest on assumptions about the Middle East conflict and may be revised in the October 2026 update. October 2026 edition supersedes April; annual forecasts in the published native unit.
$448/t (2026) → $500/t (2027) → $468/t (2028) → $418/t (2019) → $497/t (2020) → $458/t (2021) → $437/t (2022) → $554/t (2023) → $588/t (2024) → $408/t (2025)
Nominal US dollars, annual average ($/mt); 2019-2025 are World Bank reported annual averages, 2026-2027 are the World Bank's April 2026 forecasts (estimates, not outcomes). Benchmark is Thai 5% broken white rice. Forecasts rest on assumptions about the Middle East conflict and may be revised in the October 2026 update. October 2026 edition supersedes April; annual forecasts in the published native unit.
817Mt (2025) → 807Mt (2026) → 814Mt (2027) → 825Mt (2028) → 833Mt (2029) → 842Mt (2030) → 849Mt (2031) → 856Mt (2032) → 863Mt (2033) → 870Mt (2034) → 877Mt (2035) → 737Mt (2015) → 766Mt (2016) → 760Mt (2017) → 730Mt (2018) → 760Mt (2019) → 775Mt (2020) → 782Mt (2021) → 810Mt (2022) → 792Mt (2023) → 799Mt (2024)
Million tonnes. OECD-FAO data are in thousand tonnes and shown here divided by 1,000, rounded to 0.1. 2015-2024 are historical values; 2025 belongs to the Outlook's 2023-25 base period and is an estimate; 2026-2035 are projections.
152Mt (2025) → 155Mt (2026) → 158Mt (2027) → 160Mt (2028) → 162Mt (2029) → 165Mt (2030) → 167Mt (2031) → 170Mt (2032) → 172Mt (2033) → 174Mt (2034) → 177Mt (2035) → 116Mt (2015) → 119Mt (2016) → 123Mt (2017) → 126Mt (2018) → 132Mt (2019) → 136Mt (2020) → 138Mt (2021) → 140Mt (2022) → 144Mt (2023) → 148Mt (2024)
Million tonnes ready-to-cook equivalent; OECD-FAO data are in thousand tonnes divided by 1,000. 2015-2024 historical, 2025 base-period estimate, 2026-2035 projection. Highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks are a stated downside risk.