L’IPO di Anthropic raggiunge un traguardo di conferma definito dal mercato

FinanzaPubblicato 20/09/202620/09/2026 alle 15:27@OddsDesk

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Anthropic

Inizia il 16/11/2026

Anthropic, 500 Howard St, San Francisco, CA

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Questo pin segue le notizie: mostra ciò che si sa ora, e qui trovi cosa è cambiato e da dove.

Modificato27/10/2026 alle 23:44di @ThePinGang
Titolo
Anthropic Announces an IPOAnthropic’s IPO Reaches a Market-Defined Confirmation Milestone
Riepilogo
riscritto
Prima
On October 27, 2026 Kalshi bid/ask midpoints implied about 1% before November 1, 12% before November 16, 87% before December 1 and 93% before January 1, 2027. The November 16 to December 1 interval is now the largest quoted increase (about 75 points), so the modal announcement window has moved from early November to the second half of the month. Active contracts have traded roughly 2.3 million contracts in total; this is a contract count, not reported cash turnover. A qualifying SEC effectiveness declaration, IPO pricing or assigned ticker can resolve the contract before shares begin trading.
The bullets below were read on October 21, 2026 and are kept for comparison.
On October 21, 2026 Kalshi bid/ask midpoints implied 0.5% before November 1 and 73% before December 1. The November interval is the largest remaining quoted increase, with an estimated US$519,314.98 in contract-count-times-last-price dollar volume across active contracts. This estimate is not reported cash turnover. A qualifying SEC effectiveness declaration, IPO pricing or assigned ticker can resolve the contract before shares begin trading.
Polymarket separately priced actual listed shares opening for trading at 8.1% by November 15, 64.5% by November 30 and 80.5% by December 31, on US$5,189,588.61 event volume. Its largest remaining interval is November 16–30; this listing contract is not interchangeable with Kalshi’s earlier IPO-confirmation trigger.
On October 20, 2026 the Kalshi announcement ladder quoted before November1 at 0.5% and before December1 at 60% by bid/ask midpoints, placing 59.5 percentage points in November. November1 is the estimated start of that modal month, not a scheduled announcement day. Estimated contracts-times-last-price dollar amount was US$461,641.53; it is not exchange-reported turnover. Expired strikes with 0/1 quotes are not treated as 50% forecasts.
Kalshi lists a market under its IPOS category asking "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?" - series KXIPOANTHROPIC, event KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE, with the KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26DEC01 strike highlighted and $2,515,906 of volume shown; the page notes "11 more" strikes beyond the three displayed
The three strikes shown are Before Dec 1, 2026 at 50% (down 7), Yes 52¢ / No 49¢; Before Jan 1, 2027 at 74% (up 1), Yes 74¢ / No 27¢; and Before Feb 1, 2027 at 83% (down 3), Yes 85¢ / No 18¢
The order ticket at the foot of the page prices the same "Before Dec 1, 2026" contract at YES 52¢ / NO 49¢ but reads "Odds 54% chance", against the 50% quoted in the list above it; its max payout date is Mar 31, 2027
Resolution: "An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it", and any of those resolves the market Yes immediately "even if the company does not start trading until after Dec 1, 2026"; the outcome is verified from the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg "and 5 others"
The market opened Apr 1, 2026 at 10:00am EDT and closes after the outcome occurs, with payout projected 30 minutes later: "This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Nov 30, 2026 at 11:59pm EST."
Headlines carried on the market page: the New York Times on Sep 18, "Anthropic Pursues IPO Despite Its A.I. Safety Warnings", saying the company is expected to generate $100 billion in annualized revenue this year even as chief executive Dario Amodei calls for slowing down development of some advanced A.I. models; Fool.com the same day, "Anthropic Is Expected to Go Public in October"; and CNBC on Sep 13, "Anthropic walks tightrope to Nasdaq, pushing for a slowdown while pursuing $2 trillion valuation"
More recently, the Access IPOs Podcast episode #77 published on 19 September 2026 says "The Anthropic IPO is still on track for the end of October" and that host Craig does not think it will be delayed again, with segments on Anthropic listing on Nasdaq, NVIDIA as an anchor investor and whether Anthropic is profitable; it argues that by disclosing potential catastrophic risks Anthropic lowers its securities fraud liabilities
Translations completed using Gemini 3.8 Flash.
- Anthropic files S-1 with the SEC for proposed initial public offeringanthropic.comAFFIDABILITÀ 95%
Modificato27/10/2026 alle 16:13di @ThePinGang
Sommario
riscritto
Prima
October 21 Kalshi midpoints imply 73% for a qualifying IPO confirmation before December 1. Estimated dollar volume US$519,314.98; November 1 marks the modal announcement window, not a fixed listing day.
Inizio
1 nov 202616 nov 2026
Riepilogo
riscritto
Prima
On October 21, 2026 Kalshi bid/ask midpoints implied 0.5% before November 1 and 73% before December 1. The November interval is the largest remaining quoted increase, with an estimated US$519,314.98 in contract-count-times-last-price dollar volume across active contracts. This estimate is not reported cash turnover. A qualifying SEC effectiveness declaration, IPO pricing or assigned ticker can resolve the contract before shares begin trading.
Polymarket separately priced actual listed shares opening for trading at 8.1% by November 15, 64.5% by November 30 and 80.5% by December 31, on US$5,189,588.61 event volume. Its largest remaining interval is November 16–30; this listing contract is not interchangeable with Kalshi’s earlier IPO-confirmation trigger.
On October 20, 2026 the Kalshi announcement ladder quoted before November1 at 0.5% and before December1 at 60% by bid/ask midpoints, placing 59.5 percentage points in November. November1 is the estimated start of that modal month, not a scheduled announcement day. Estimated contracts-times-last-price dollar amount was US$461,641.53; it is not exchange-reported turnover. Expired strikes with 0/1 quotes are not treated as 50% forecasts.
Kalshi lists a market under its IPOS category asking "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?" - series KXIPOANTHROPIC, event KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE, with the KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26DEC01 strike highlighted and $2,515,906 of volume shown; the page notes "11 more" strikes beyond the three displayed
The three strikes shown are Before Dec 1, 2026 at 50% (down 7), Yes 52¢ / No 49¢; Before Jan 1, 2027 at 74% (up 1), Yes 74¢ / No 27¢; and Before Feb 1, 2027 at 83% (down 3), Yes 85¢ / No 18¢
The order ticket at the foot of the page prices the same "Before Dec 1, 2026" contract at YES 52¢ / NO 49¢ but reads "Odds 54% chance", against the 50% quoted in the list above it; its max payout date is Mar 31, 2027
Resolution: "An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it", and any of those resolves the market Yes immediately "even if the company does not start trading until after Dec 1, 2026"; the outcome is verified from the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg "and 5 others"
The market opened Apr 1, 2026 at 10:00am EDT and closes after the outcome occurs, with payout projected 30 minutes later: "This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Nov 30, 2026 at 11:59pm EST."
Headlines carried on the market page: the New York Times on Sep 18, "Anthropic Pursues IPO Despite Its A.I. Safety Warnings", saying the company is expected to generate $100 billion in annualized revenue this year even as chief executive Dario Amodei calls for slowing down development of some advanced A.I. models; Fool.com the same day, "Anthropic Is Expected to Go Public in October"; and CNBC on Sep 13, "Anthropic walks tightrope to Nasdaq, pushing for a slowdown while pursuing $2 trillion valuation"
More recently, the Access IPOs Podcast episode #77 published on 19 September 2026 says "The Anthropic IPO is still on track for the end of October" and that host Craig does not think it will be delayed again, with segments on Anthropic listing on Nasdaq, NVIDIA as an anchor investor and whether Anthropic is profitable; it argues that by disclosing potential catastrophic risks Anthropic lowers its securities fraud liabilities
Modificato21/10/2026 alle 15:24di @ThePinGang
Sommario
riscritto
Prima
October20 Kalshi bid/ask midpoints favour a November IPO announcement, with 60% before December1. Estimated dollar volume US$461,641.53. November1 marks a forecast window, not a firm date.
Riepilogo
riscritto
Prima
On October 20, 2026 the Kalshi announcement ladder quoted before November1 at 0.5% and before December1 at 60% by bid/ask midpoints, placing 59.5 percentage points in November. November1 is the estimated start of that modal month, not a scheduled announcement day. Estimated contracts-times-last-price dollar amount was US$461,641.53; it is not exchange-reported turnover. Expired strikes with 0/1 quotes are not treated as 50% forecasts.
Kalshi lists a market under its IPOS category asking "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?" - series KXIPOANTHROPIC, event KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE, with the KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26DEC01 strike highlighted and $2,515,906 of volume shown; the page notes "11 more" strikes beyond the three displayed
The three strikes shown are Before Dec 1, 2026 at 50% (down 7), Yes 52¢ / No 49¢; Before Jan 1, 2027 at 74% (up 1), Yes 74¢ / No 27¢; and Before Feb 1, 2027 at 83% (down 3), Yes 85¢ / No 18¢
The order ticket at the foot of the page prices the same "Before Dec 1, 2026" contract at YES 52¢ / NO 49¢ but reads "Odds 54% chance", against the 50% quoted in the list above it; its max payout date is Mar 31, 2027
Resolution: "An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it", and any of those resolves the market Yes immediately "even if the company does not start trading until after Dec 1, 2026"; the outcome is verified from the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg "and 5 others"
The market opened Apr 1, 2026 at 10:00am EDT and closes after the outcome occurs, with payout projected 30 minutes later: "This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Nov 30, 2026 at 11:59pm EST."
Headlines carried on the market page: the New York Times on Sep 18, "Anthropic Pursues IPO Despite Its A.I. Safety Warnings", saying the company is expected to generate $100 billion in annualized revenue this year even as chief executive Dario Amodei calls for slowing down development of some advanced A.I. models; Fool.com the same day, "Anthropic Is Expected to Go Public in October"; and CNBC on Sep 13, "Anthropic walks tightrope to Nasdaq, pushing for a slowdown while pursuing $2 trillion valuation"
More recently, the Access IPOs Podcast episode #77 published on 19 September 2026 says "The Anthropic IPO is still on track for the end of October" and that host Craig does not think it will be delayed again, with segments on Anthropic listing on Nasdaq, NVIDIA as an anchor investor and whether Anthropic is profitable; it argues that by disclosing potential catastrophic risks Anthropic lowers its securities fraud liabilities

Mostra 1 aggiornamento precedente

Modificato20/10/2026 alle 14:25di @ThePinGang
Sommario
riscritto
Prima
On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s Anthropic IPO ladder went from a 9% chance of an announcement before November 1 to 50% before December 1, putting 41 points of probability on November 2026 alone — by far the single likeliest month. By April 2027 the market had the announcement at 91%.
Inizio
30 nov 20261 nov 2026
Riepilogo
riscritto
Prima
Kalshi lists a market under its IPOS category asking "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?" - series KXIPOANTHROPIC, event KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE, with the KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26DEC01 strike highlighted and $2,515,906 of volume shown; the page notes "11 more" strikes beyond the three displayed
The three strikes shown are Before Dec 1, 2026 at 50% (down 7), Yes 52¢ / No 49¢; Before Jan 1, 2027 at 74% (up 1), Yes 74¢ / No 27¢; and Before Feb 1, 2027 at 83% (down 3), Yes 85¢ / No 18¢
The order ticket at the foot of the page prices the same "Before Dec 1, 2026" contract at YES 52¢ / NO 49¢ but reads "Odds 54% chance", against the 50% quoted in the list above it; its max payout date is Mar 31, 2027
Resolution: "An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it", and any of those resolves the market Yes immediately "even if the company does not start trading until after Dec 1, 2026"; the outcome is verified from the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg "and 5 others"
The market opened Apr 1, 2026 at 10:00am EDT and closes after the outcome occurs, with payout projected 30 minutes later: "This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Nov 30, 2026 at 11:59pm EST."
Headlines carried on the market page: the New York Times on Sep 18, "Anthropic Pursues IPO Despite Its A.I. Safety Warnings", saying the company is expected to generate $100 billion in annualized revenue this year even as chief executive Dario Amodei calls for slowing down development of some advanced A.I. models; Fool.com the same day, "Anthropic Is Expected to Go Public in October"; and CNBC on Sep 13, "Anthropic walks tightrope to Nasdaq, pushing for a slowdown while pursuing $2 trillion valuation"
More recently, the Access IPOs Podcast episode #77 published on 19 September 2026 says "The Anthropic IPO is still on track for the end of October" and that host Craig does not think it will be delayed again, with segments on Anthropic listing on Nasdaq, NVIDIA as an anchor investor and whether Anthropic is profitable; it argues that by disclosing potential catastrophic risks Anthropic lowers its securities fraud liabilities

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Fonti 4AFFIDABILITÀ 74%Affidabilità complessiva: 74%Quanto la fonte e le altre fonti del pin ne confermano le date.Media ponderata di quanto 4 fonti, compresa quella principale, confermano gli orari di inizio e fine del pin; una fonte conta la metà per ogni 180 giorni in più rispetto alla più recenteMostra tutti i pin con affidabilità dal 50% al 74%

La prima voce è sempre la fonte del pin. L’affidabilità complessiva è una media ponderata di quanto ogni fonte conferma gli orari di inizio e fine indicati sopra; una fonte conta la metà per ogni 180 giorni in più rispetto alla più recente.

[1]50%
kalshi.com/markets/kxipoanthropic/anthropic-ipo/kxipoanthropic-date
kalshi.com· Postato il 20 set 2026· Inizio 16 nov 2026 ✓· 24% del punteggio
Stima: il 27 ottobre 2026 i punti medi bid/ask di Kalshi^[3] implicavano circa l'1% prima del 1 novembre, il 12% prima del 16 novembre, l'87% prima del 1 dicembre e il 93% prima del 1 gennaio 2027. L'intervallo dal 16 novembre al 1 dicembre è ora il maggiore aumento quotato (circa 75 punti), quindi la finestra modale dell'annuncio è stata spostata dall'inizio di novembre alla seconda metà del mese. I contratti attivi hanno scambiato circa 2,3 milioni di contratti in totale; questo è un conteggio del contratto, non un fatturato in contanti riportato. Una dichiarazione di efficacia qualificata della SEC, un prezzo IPO o un ticker assegnato possono risolvere il contratto prima che le azioni inizino a essere negoziate.
[2]95%
Anthropic files S-1 with the SEC for proposed initial public offering
anthropic.com· Pubblicato il 26 ott 2026· Aggiunto da@ThePinGang· 28% del punteggio
Separates confirmed public filing from the predicted confirmation trigger.^[1]
[3]75%
Kalshi: When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
kalshi.com· Aggiunto il 20 set 2026· 24% del punteggio
The matching market for Anthropic’s^[2] closest rival is what makes the November timing striking — OpenAI is only 5% before January 2027 where Anthropic is 74%.
[4]75%
Access IPOs Podcast #77: Anthropic IPO Countdown — The Latest Progress + OpenAI IPO Delayed
podcasts.apple.com· Pubblicato il 19 set 2026· 24% del punteggio
The September 19, 2026 episode is a countdown to the Anthropic^[2] listing that asks whether it slips again, which is exactly the timing risk the November rung on Kalshi^[1][3] prices.

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L’IPO di Anthropic raggiunge un traguardo di conferma definito dal mercato

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