ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins5 months late67% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 67%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence34 days agoMusk said production starts 'late July or August' 2026; no reveal had been confirmed as of Aug 10, 2026, so the end of that window is used.[1]
Tesla's third-generation Optimus humanoid was due to be revealed mid-2026, with production at Fremont starting late July or August; the reveal has slipped repeatedly from an original Q1 2026 target.