Pandemic: upcoming dates

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• Health09/21/2026@HealthDesk

  WHO Calls COVID-19 a Pandemic

  World Health Organization, Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva, SwitzerlandWorld Health Organization

  

  Starts 03/11/2020CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins90% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 90%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better6.6 years agoThe Director-General used the word at the media briefing of 11 March 2020, the date the WHO's^[2] own COVID-19 timeline carries.

  Six weeks after declaring a public health emergency, the WHO's Director-General told a Geneva briefing that COVID-19 could be characterised as a pandemic - 118,000 cases in 114 countries at the time. Most of the world's lockdowns began within a fortnight.

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• Health09/21/2026@HealthDesk

  The 1918 Flu Surfaces at Camp Funston

  Camp Funston, Fort Riley, Kansas, United States

  

  Starts 03/04/1918ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins68% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 68%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence108.6 years ago4 March 1918 is the first recorded case at Camp Funston, which is the earliest documented outbreak rather than a proven origin - the pandemic's beginning is genuinely disputed.^[1]

  A camp cook reported sick at Fort Riley's Camp Funston in Kansas, and within days hundreds of soldiers were down with influenza. It is the first recorded outbreak of the pandemic that killed more people than the war it travelled with - somewhere between 25 and 50 million.

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• Health09/21/2026@HealthDesk

  The Black Death Reaches Europe at Messina

  Messina, Sicily, Italy

  

  10/01/1347 - 10/31/1347ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence679.0 years agoThe sources agree on the month, not the day: the plague ships are recorded as reaching Messina in October 1347, so the pin covers that month rather than claiming a date.^[1]

  Genoese galleys carrying plague from the Black Sea put in at Messina in Sicily, and the disease went ashore with them. Over the next seven years it killed perhaps a third of Europe - up to 50 million people - and took two centuries to be made good.

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