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Dự báo ngành · BusinessWorld merchandise trade volume growth

WTO reported (merchandise trade volume, annual % change): 4.6% (2025 · Thực tế)
WTO Global Trade Outlook, October 2026 2026: 3.9% (Dự báo)
WTO Global Trade Outlook, October 2026 2027: 4.1% (Dự báo)

Annual volume growth in goods trade, not trade value or commercial services. The same October update forecasts 4.1% in 2027; shipping disruption and energy costs remain risks. History: Annual % growth in world merchandise trade volume; 2023 (-0.9) is from the Oct 2025 vintage, 2024 and 2025 from the March 2026 vintage (WTO revised 2024 from 2.8 to 2.7). Only three points verified.

Nguồn

WTO Global Trade Outlook, October 2026 · 2026-10-08
“merchandise trade volume is now expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026”
WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Update, October 2025 (Table 1, Historical) · 2025-10-07
“Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and GDP growth, 2023-2026 ... Historical 2023 2024 ... World Trade a -0.9 2.8 2.4 0.5”
WTO Annual Report 2026 Spotlight: Global trade developments and outlook · 2026-03-19
“World trade grew faster than expected in 2025, with the volume of world merchandise trade rising 4.6 per cent in volume terms (up from 2.7 per cent in 2024)”

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Kiểm tra 2026-10-28

World merchandise trade volume growth
3.9% (2026) → 4.1% (2027) → -0.9% (2023) → 2.7% (2024) → 4.6% (2025)
Annual volume growth in goods trade, not trade value or commercial services. The same October update forecasts 4.1% in 2027; shipping disruption and energy costs remain risks. History: Annual % growth in world merchandise trade volume; 2023 (-0.9) is from the Oct 2025 vintage, 2024 and 2025 from the March 2026 vintage (WTO revised 2024 from 2.8 to 2.7). Only three points verified.
- WTO Global Trade Outlook, October 2026 · 2026-10-08 “merchandise trade volume is now expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026”
- WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Update, October 2025 (Table 1, Historical) · 2025-10-07 “Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and GDP growth, 2023-2026 ... Historical 2023 2024 ... World Trade a -0.9 2.8 2.4 0.5”
- WTO Annual Report 2026 Spotlight: Global trade developments and outlook · 2026-03-19 “World trade grew faster than expected in 2025, with the volume of world merchandise trade rising 4.6 per cent in volume terms (up from 2.7 per cent in 2024)”

World merchandise trade volume growth

3.9% (2026) → 4.1% (2027) → -0.9% (2023) → 2.7% (2024) → 4.6% (2025)

WTO Global Trade Outlook, October 2026 · 2026-10-08 “merchandise trade volume is now expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026”

WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Update, October 2025 (Table 1, Historical) · 2025-10-07 “Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and GDP growth, 2023-2026 ... Historical 2023 2024 ... World Trade a -0.9 2.8 2.4 0.5”

WTO Annual Report 2026 Spotlight: Global trade developments and outlook · 2026-03-19 “World trade grew faster than expected in 2025, with the volume of world merchandise trade rising 4.6 per cent in volume terms (up from 2.7 per cent in 2024)”