行业预测 · ReligionUS Christian population share in 2070: Pew 2022 scenario
Pew Religious Landscape Study reported: 62%(2024 · 实际)
Pew Research Center, 2022 steady-switching scenario 2070: 46%(预测)
A conditional demographic scenario, explicitly not a prediction: religious switching and other assumptions remain at the rates used in Pew’s 2020 baseline. Includes children; not worldwide religious composition. This is a 2022 scenario, not a refreshed 2026 forecast. Pew’s February 2025 observations found that the US Christian decline had slowed or may have leveled off, so the old scenario should not be read as inevitable. History: Share of US adults identifying as Christian in the three Religious Landscape Studies (the 2023-24 survey is plotted at 2024); note the 2022 projection scenario started from a different 2020 baseline (about 64%) so the lines are not on identical survey bases.