The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
Tesla has not announced the date (Benzinga, 17 Sept 2026: "Tesla has not announced its Q3 delivery date. Its second-quarter tally arrived two days after the quarter ended."); it released Q3 2025 figures on 2 October 2025 and Q1 and Q2 2026 figures on 2 April and 2 July 2026, so 2 October 2026 is estimated from that pattern.
Benzinga via Yahoo Finance: Q3 2026 forecasts (Goldman 435,000, Visible Alpha 456,000, Kalshi near 480,000) and that Tesla[1] has not announced its Q3 delivery date.
Tesla's[1] own Q2 2026 release as filed with the SEC[6] (the IR page 403s to scripts): 451,758 produced, 480,126 delivered, 13.5 GWh deployed, and the 22 July earnings webcast date.
CNBC on the Q2 2026 report: deliveries versus Tesla[1]-compiled and StreetAccount consensus, and storage deployments versus expectations.
Electrek on Tesla's[1] company-compiled delivery consensus, published on its IR page from 22 sell-side analysts about a week before the report.
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In a conference call following the release of the results, CEO Elon Musk made new comments announcing that Tesla plans to hold a “handover event,” which generally means the first deliveries of a new car, toward “the end of the third quarter.”
This would put the first Tesla Cybertruck deliveries around September 2023. It’s the most precise timing of Cybertruck deliveries that Tesla has released to date.
Based on the launch of Tesla’s most recent models, especially the Model Y, we should expect Tesla to only deliver a few Cybertrucks during the delivery event, likely only to Tesla insiders, and we can expect months between the event and the start of deliveries to customers.
Interestingly, Musk also said that Cybertruck reservation holders should expect to get an update on specs and pricing at that event at the end of Q3.
In previous comments, Musk indicated that the Cybertruck would be available in a new top-of-the-line variant with quad motors rather than the tri-motor powertrain originally announced.
Several test prototypes have already been spotted with camouflaged front and rear ends, suggesting the Model 3 is in for some major visual updates. But Tesla's compact sedan will get more than that. According to a "trusted insider" who offered an exclusive insight to Not A Tesla App, the Project Highland will bring significant changes inside and out.
Starting with the design, the report notes the headlights will have a different shape, which means the front bumper will be redesigned as well. It will be more aerodynamic and will now house a single camera in the center area of the lower grille, in similar fashion to the Cybertruck.
Out back, the refreshed Tesla Model 3 is also getting a redesigned bumper, although the changes will likely be purely for aesthetic reasons.
The source also said the side mirrors will be subtly updated and the Project Highland will be getting more cameras to take advantage of the new Hardware 4.0 Autopilot supercomputer. Three new cameras will reportedly be added to the Model 3: one in the center of the front bumper and two on the sides of the car.