- Start
- Dec 31, 203075% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
International Space Station Set for Controlled Deorbit
- NASA has committed to fully use and safely operate the ISS through 2030 under its 2022 transition plan, shifting low Earth orbit operations to commercial destinations[3]
- The station will be deorbited in a controlled way around 2030 or shortly after, with a splashdown in an uninhabited part of the Pacific[2][3]
- NASA selected SpaceX to develop the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle, contracted for up to $843 million; studies showed Progress spacecraft alone were insufficient[2][3]
- Alternatives were rejected: disassembly (assembly took 27 shuttle flights over 13 years), boosting to a higher orbit, and random re-entry given the 1-in-10,000 public risk limit[3]
- The method is orbital decay and lowering altitude, then a large re-entry burn after crew return; the station is about 415 km high and over 430,000 kg[3]
- CASIS extended its ISS National Laboratory agreement through 2030[2]
References 377% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]75%youtube.com/watch?v=cohVHaVMBl8youtube.com· Posted Sep 14, 2026· Starts Dec 31, 2030 ✓· 72% of score
Given as scheduled, per the source: "NASA[3] and its international partners are planning to intentionally deorbit the orbiting laboratory around 2030 or shortly thereafter."
- [2]80%International Space Station prepares for new commander, heads into final five years of planned operationsspaceflightnow.com· Published Dec 5, 2025· 24% of score
Spaceflight Now could not be fetched due to a network restriction, but its headline about the ISS "heading into final five years of planned operations" and 5 December 2025 publish date support the pin's stored end-of-2030 deorbit date, implying operations wind down around then.
- [3]90%FAQs: The International Space Station Transition Plannasa.gov· Published Jul 18, 2024· 3% of score
NASA's own FAQ confirms it "has committed to fully use and safely operate the space station through 2030" before deorbit, consistent with the pin's stored 31 December 2030 scheduled date, though the document stops short of naming an exact deorbit date.
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