Will the US-Iran Ceasefire Last Through October 31?

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• Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?

  Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine

  

  Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATED64% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysNo date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's^[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.

   Polymarket

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   Polymarket

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  On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  Government Funding Runs Out Again on December 11

  United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Congress

  

  Starts 12/11/2026SCHEDULED86% CONFIDENCEin 79 daysH.R. 6500 funds federal agencies through 11 December 2026, so the continuing resolution expires at the end of that day.^[1]

  The stopgap signed in September expires on 11 December 2026, the deadline for Congress to enact the twelve fiscal 2027 appropriations bills or pass another continuing resolution before agencies shut down.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  Trump Signs the Stopgap That Funds the Government to December 11

  The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, D.C., United StatesThe White House

  

  09/02/2026 - 12/11/2026CONFIRMED90% CONFIDENCE21 days agoThe White House^[1] statement dates the signing of H.R. 6500 to Wednesday, September 2, 2026. The act is in force from that day and its appropriations run to 11 December 2026, the date named in section 106(3) of the enrolled text.

  H.R. 6500, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, was signed on 2 September 2026, four weeks before the fiscal year ran out. Its appropriations run from 1 October to 11 December 2026, pushing the next shutdown fight past the midterm elections.

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• Policy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  Homeland Security Goes Dark for a Record 76 Days

  Department of Homeland Security Headquarters, St. Elizabeths West Campus, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of Homeland Security

  

  02/14/2026 - 04/30/2026CONFIRMED88% CONFIDENCE221 days agoDHS was without routine funding from 14 February 2026 until the President signed the funding bill on 30 April 2026, a record 76 days.^[1]

  A two-week stopgap for DHS alone ran out on 14 February 2026, and the department stayed unfunded for 76 days - the longest shutdown of a single agency in US history - until the President signed a bipartisan bill on 30 April.

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• Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk

  Trump Orders 172 Million Barrels Out as Hormuz Chokes

  US Department of EnergyJames Forrestal Building, 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States

  Starts 03/11/2026CONFIRMED88% CONFIDENCE196 days agoDOE's press release carries Secretary Wright's statement and is dated 11 March 2026, the day the IEA agreed the collective release.^[1]

  Thirty-two IEA member nations agreed on 11 March 2026 to release 400 million barrels between them after Iranian attacks slowed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The American share was 172 million barrels, the largest US release ever ordered, and Secretary Wright said it would take about 120 days to deliver.

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• Labour09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The UAW's Detroit Three Contracts Expire

  Detroit, Michigan, United StatesUnited Auto Workers

  

  Starts 04/30/2028SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 1.6 yearsThe four-and-a-half-year agreements ratified in late 2023 expire on 30 April 2028, a date union leaders set deliberately so that workers could strike on 1 May, International Workers' Day.^[1]

  The UAW's contracts with General Motors, Ford and Stellantis run out on 30 April 2028 - a date the union chose so members could strike on May Day.

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• Labour09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The UPS-Teamsters Contract Runs Out

  UPS headquarters, Atlanta, Georgia, United StatesUnited Parcel Service·…

  

  Starts 07/31/2028SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 1.9 yearsThe contract agreed in 2023 runs to 31 July 2028; FreightWaves^[1] reports Teamsters president Sean O'Brien saying the union is ready to strike when it expires.

  The five-year UPS-Teamsters agreement covering some 340,000 workers expires on 31 July 2028, and the union's president has already said a strike is coming.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Longest Government Shutdown in US History Begins

  United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Congress

  

  10/01/2025 - 11/12/2025CONFIRMED89% CONFIDENCE357 days agoThe shutdown began just after midnight on 1 October 2025 and ended on 12 November 2025 when the President signed the stopgap, a span of 43 days.^[1]

  Federal funding lapsed just after midnight on 1 October 2025 and stayed lapsed for 43 days, the longest shutdown ever, over a fight about expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.

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• Geopolitics05/11/2023@ThePinGang

  Ukraine counteroffensive: Mud season should end last week of May or first week of June before Ukraining can move

  05/29/2023 - 06/04/2023CONFIRMED83% CONFIDENCE3.3 years agoHappened as dated, per dw.com^[1]: "…will the mud season end? Kyiv plans to launch a counteroffensive against Russia this spring. A form…"

  Kyiv plans to launch a counteroffensive against Russia this spring. A former US military meteorologist has taken to Twitter to provide valuable predictions as to when ground conditions will be right.

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• Aerospace09/15/2026@BuildDesk

  Czech Republic and Sweden Sign a Joint Declaration to Extend the Gripen Lease

  Čáslav, Czech RepublicSaab

  

  Starts 08/31/2024CONFIRMED75% CONFIDENCE2.1 years agoDefence trade press dates the Czech-Swedish joint declaration on extending the Gripen lease beyond 2027 to 31 August 2024. The binding contract, for 12 jets to 2035, was still under evaluation in April 2025, so this date is the declaration and not the lease contract.^[1]

  Prague and Stockholm signed a joint declaration to keep the Čáslav-based Saab JAS 39 Gripen fleet flying beyond the lease's 2027 expiry, until Czech F-35s arrive; the binding contract covering 12 jets to 2035 was still being negotiated the following year. The deal underpins the fleet's ongoing depot-level overhauls, which strip and rebuild each jet roughly every few years.

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• Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Canadians Vote in the Next Federal Election

  Centre Block, Parliament Hill, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

  

  Starts 10/15/2029SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 3.1 yearsThe Canada Elections Act fixes polling day as the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election, which is October 15, 2029; Kalshi's^[1] event ticker carries the same date.

   Kalshi

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  Canada's fixed-date law puts the next general election on the third Monday of October 2029, which is October 15. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had the Liberal Party at 60%, the Conservative Party at 38% and the NDP at 3.5%; a lost confidence vote would bring the date forward.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  Half the Government Shuts Down for Four Days

  United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Congress

  

  01/31/2026 - 02/03/2026CONFIRMED87% CONFIDENCE235 days agoThe funding lapse ran from 31 January 2026, when the continuing resolution expired, to 3 February 2026, when the House passed the package 217-214 and the President signed it.^[1]

  A stopgap covering six of the twelve appropriations bills expired on 31 January 2026, closing roughly half of federal agencies until the House passed a funding package 217-214 on 3 February.

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