Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?
Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine
ESTIMÉCONFIANCE 64 %No date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.
Polymarket
Polymarket
On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.
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