Will the US-Iran Ceasefire Last Through October 31?

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Modificato21/10/2026 alle 22:19di @ThePinGang
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On October 21, 2026, Polymarket’s US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? market reported US$19,569,075 event volume and priced October 22 97%; October 24 93.5%; October 28 86%; October 31 81.5%. These are dated market-implied probabilities, not confirmed outcomes.
On October 20, 2026, Polymarket’s US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? market reported US$19,008,688 event volume and priced October 22 93%; October 24 87.5%; October 28 81.5%; October 31 78.5%. These are dated market-implied probabilities, not confirmed outcomes.
The U.S. and Iran agreed an initial ceasefire in April; a June memorandum meant to end the war within 60 days became nearly defunct after Iran struck three commercial vessels in July.
As of September 18 the fire pause had entered its ninth day with no Iranian missile or drone attack reported, while the two sides remain between ceasefire and all-out war.
Polymarket's ladder: through September 20 97%, September 25 84%, September 30 80%, October 31 46%.
Modificato21/10/2026 alle 15:26di @ThePinGang
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On October 20, 2026, Polymarket’s US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? market reported US$19,008,688 event volume and priced October 22 93%; October 24 87.5%; October 28 81.5%; October 31 78.5%. These are dated market-implied probabilities, not confirmed outcomes.
The U.S. and Iran agreed an initial ceasefire in April; a June memorandum meant to end the war within 60 days became nearly defunct after Iran struck three commercial vessels in July.
As of September 18 the fire pause had entered its ninth day with no Iranian missile or drone attack reported, while the two sides remain between ceasefire and all-out war.
Polymarket's ladder: through September 20 97%, September 25 84%, September 30 80%, October 31 46%.
Modificato20/10/2026 alle 14:24di @ThePinGang
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The U.S. and Iran agreed an initial ceasefire in April; a June memorandum meant to end the war within 60 days became nearly defunct after Iran struck three commercial vessels in July.
As of September 18 the fire pause had entered its ninth day with no Iranian missile or drone attack reported, while the two sides remain between ceasefire and all-out war.
Polymarket's ladder: through September 20 97%, September 25 84%, September 30 80%, October 31 46%.

Will the US-Iran Ceasefire Last Through October 31?

21,3 Mln USD scambiati

Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.

On October 21,2026 at 22:02 UTC, Polymarket’s US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? market reported US$20,860,043 event volume and priced October 22 86.7%; October 24 79%; October 28 74.5%; October 31 73%. These are market-implied probabilities, not confirmed outcomes.^[1]
On October 20, 2026, Polymarket’s US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? market reported US$19,008,688 event volume and priced October 22 93%; October 24 87.5%; October 28 81.5%; October 31 78.5%. These are dated market-implied probabilities, not confirmed outcomes.^[1]
The U.S. and Iran agreed an initial ceasefire in April; a June memorandum meant to end the war within 60 days became nearly defunct after Iran struck three commercial vessels in July.
As of September 18 the fire pause had entered its ninth day with no Iranian missile or drone attack reported, while the two sides remain between ceasefire and all-out war.
Polymarket's ladder: through September 20 97%, September 25 84%, September 30 80%, October 31 46%.

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Will the US-Iran Ceasefire Last Through October 31?

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