業界予測 · DisasterAnnual disasters by 2030: continuation-of-trend scenario
UNDRR Global Assessment Report 2022 / COP27 call to action 2030: 560 /year(予測)
Approximate global annual disaster count if the trajectory used in the 2022 assessment continues, not a prediction of where or when an individual disaster will occur. This is an older conditional projection, restated in a November 2025 UNDP article; it is not a new 2026 model run.