Adakah Gencatan Senjata AS-Iran Akan Bertahan Sepanjang Separuh Penggal?

GeopolitikDisiarkan 02/11/202602/11/2026, 2:47 PTG

Bermula 03/11/2026 12:00 PG UTC

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Disunting03/11/2026, 3:31 PGoleh @OddsDesk
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ditulis semula 22 ditambah, 1 dibuang
…2 traders priced 'Yes, the ceasefire holds' at ~~95.5%.~~95.5%; by 03:30 UTC on November 3, after a reported US strike on Qeshm Island, the Yes price had fallen to 0.5%.
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ditulis semula 158 ditambah, 8 dibuang
Observed November ~~2, 2026:~~ 3, 2026 at 03:30 UTC: Polymarket's 'US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?' priced Yes at ~~95.5%~~0.5% and No at ~~4.5%,~~99.5%, with ~~US$1,878,972~~US$2,044,212 traded in total and about ~~US$50,200~~US$173,000 in the previous 24 hours. These are market-implied probabilities, not a confirmed outcome. Earlier on November 2 the same market priced Yes at 95.5% and No at 4.5%, with US$1,878,972 traded and about US$50,200 in the previous 24 hours; the 95-point fall followed Axios's report, timestamped 02:10 GMT on November 3, that a US fighter jet destroyed an IRGC surface-to-air missile launcher on Qeshm Island on Monday night after the IRGC fired a missile at a US aircraft over the Strait of Hormuz, which a US official described as self-defense. The market resolves No if the United States …operations, naval gunfire and artillery do not count. Whether the Qeshm strike meets that definition has not been settled; the price implies traders think it does. Asked on Monday whether he was considering striking Iran after the midterms, President Trump said “no” while administration officials told the WSJ he was still weighing options; he told Axios he was “in no rush” to decide on resuming fighting, adding “One way or the other, we will do something.” It continues the thread from the earlier Polymarket …market closes and a note on whether the ~~95.5% reading~~market’s price at close held.
- Iran International live blog: Trump says Iran deal could happen, US strikes Qeshm Islandiranintl.com80% KEYAKINAN

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Rujukan 465% KEYAKINANKeyakinan keseluruhan: 65%Sejauh mana sumber dan rujukan pin menyokong tarikhnya.Purata berpemberat bagi sejauh mana 4 rujukan, termasuk sumber, menyokong masa mula dan tamat pin; sesebuah rujukan diambil kira separuh kurang bagi setiap 180 hari lebih lama daripada yang terbaharuTunjuk semua pin daripada keyakinan 50% hingga 74%

Entri pertama sentiasa sumber pin. Keyakinan keseluruhan ialah purata berpemberat bagi sejauh mana setiap rujukan menyokong masa mula dan tamat yang digunakan di atas; sesebuah rujukan diambil kira separuh kurang bagi setiap 180 hari lebih lama daripada yang terbaharu.

[1]50%
polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midterms
polymarket.com· Disiarkan 2 Nov 2026· Bermula 3 Nov 2026 ✓· Berakhir 4 Nov 2026 ✓· 25% daripada skor
Anggaran: tetingkap pasaran ditutup pada 11:59 PM ET pada 3 November 2026 (04:59 UTC pada 4 November); pin bertarikh pada hari pilihan raya, permulaan hari terakhir tingkap pemerhatian, dan mogok boleh menamatkan gencatan senjata lebih awal.
[2]80%
Iran International live blog: Trump says Iran deal could happen, US strikes Qeshm Island
iranintl.com· Diterbitkan 3 Nov 2026· 25% daripada skor
Relays Axios (3 November, 02:10 GMT): a US fighter jet destroyed an IRGC SAM launcher on Qeshm Island after the IRGC fired at a US aircraft; Trump's statements on resuming strikes.^[1]
[3]85%
Polymarket: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? (earlier ladder, pin 1952)
polymarket.com· Ditambah 2 Nov 2026· 25% daripada skor
The earlier market on the same ceasefire, linked as the thread's parent.^[1]
[4]95%
Polymarket API: US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
gamma-api.polymarket.com· Diterbitkan 2 Nov 2026· 25% daripada skor
Opened 2 November 2026: Yes 95.5%, US$1,878,972 traded, resolution rules defining a qualifying strike.^[1]

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Adakah Gencatan Senjata AS-Iran Akan Bertahan Sepanjang Separuh Penggal?

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