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Starship launches Starlink Group 31-1 (Starship Flight 14)
SCHEDULED79% CONFIDENCEin 5 daysSpaceX[1], quoted 22 Sep 2026: "Now targeting to launch Starship Flight 14 as early as Monday, September 28, pending regulatory approval. The 75-minute launch window will open at 7:15 a.m. CT." Already slipped once from 22 Sep, and the FAA licence was still pending.KalshiPolymarket14th test flight of the two-stage Starship launch vehicle. 3rd flight of Starship V3 and the first Starship flight to deploy satellites (a group of Starlink satellites known as Starlink Group 31-1) into stable Low Earth Orbit. The ship is expected to fly at an altitude approximately 275 km above Earth and complete approximately 6 orbits around the planet for nearly 10 hours, with splashdown targeted in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile. The booster’s primary test objective on Flight 14 will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf. Starship will deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit for the first time, which aim to greatly expand the network's capacity and user speeds. Each Starlink V3 satellite will add 1 Tbps of capacity to the constellation. Lifts off from Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Gulf of Mexico.0.63SpaceX Closes Out Its 2026 Launch Count
SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysAn annual count is settled when the year ends: Kalshi[1] expires the 2026 event on December 31, 2026 and Polymarket[2] closes its version at 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, so the date follows the market’s terms rather than an estimate.KalshiPolymarketKalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.0.62Kinetica 1 launches 9 satellites
SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCE3 days agoLaunch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.[1]Share-ride of 9 commercial Earth observation and technology demonstration satellites to SSO, details TBD. Lifts off from Launch Area 130, Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, People's Republic of China to Sun-Synchronous Orbit.0.62International Space Station Deorbit
ESTIMATED52% CONFIDENCEin 4.3 yearsGiven as a target, not a fixed date, per the pin description: "…ructive reentry over the South Pacific. Estimated date.…"After more than three decades in orbit, the ISS is to be steered into a controlled destructive reentry over the South Pacific. Estimated date.$150B0.62Arianespace Launches Ariane 5 on Its Final Flight, VA261
CONFIRMED85% CONFIDENCE3.2 years agoSpaceflight Now[3] and ESA both confirm Ariane 5 flight VA261, the rocket's final launch, lifted off on 5 July 2023.Arianespace flew Europe's Ariane 5 heavy-lift rocket for the last time from the Guiana Space Centre, retiring the launcher after 27 years and 117 missions. The final flight, VA261, carried Germany's Heinrich Hertz communications satellite and France's Syracuse 4B military satellite to orbit.0.62International Space Station Set for Controlled Deorbit
SCHEDULED77% CONFIDENCEin 4.3 yearsGiven as scheduled, per the source[1]: "NASA[3] and its international partners are planning to intentionally deorbit the orbiting laboratory around 2030 or shortly thereafter."NASA plans to retire the 25-year-old ISS by guiding it into a remote stretch of the South Pacific using a purpose-built SpaceX deorbit vehicle.$843M0.61ITER Starts Research Operations
ESTIMATED68% CONFIDENCEin 8.3 yearsITER's[1] updated 2024 baseline gives 2034 for the start of research activities. Only the year is stated, so the pin takes its last day.ITER's 2024 baseline puts the start of research operations in 2034, opening a period of hydrogen and deuterium plasma experiments at the fusion reactor in southern France.0.61Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment Begins
ESTIMATED63% CONFIDENCEin 4.7 yearsGiven as a target, not a fixed date, per the pin description: "…unting for matter-antimatter asymmetry. Estimated date.…"A neutrino beam fired 1,300 km from Fermilab to detectors a mile underground in South Dakota, hunting for matter-antimatter asymmetry. Estimated date.$5B0.61Arianespace Launches Ariane 6 on Its Maiden Flight, VA262
CONFIRMED87% CONFIDENCE2.2 years agoArianespace's newsroom and Wikipedia's[2][3] Ariane flight VA262 article confirm Ariane 6's maiden flight lifted off from Kourou on 9 July 2024.Europe's new heavy-lift launcher Ariane 6, built by ArianeGroup, flew for the first time from the Guiana Space Centre. The inaugural flight met its main objectives despite an anomaly in an upper-stage auxiliary unit late in the mission.0.60Falcon 9 launches USSF-385
SCHEDULED77% CONFIDENCEin 3 daysSpaceflight Now[3] (checked 2026-09-23): "Window opens at 4:56 a.m. PDT (7:56 a.m. EDT / 1156 UTC)" on 26 September from SLC-4E, Vandenberg; launches slip.A classified mission for the United States Space Force. It is possibly a batch of classified LEO satellites based on SpaceX’s Starshield satellite bus, based on locations of rocket stage drop zones being exact fits with previous Starlink Group 15 launches. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Of Course I Still Love You.0.60Virgin Hyperloop Runs Its First Passenger Test
CONFIRMED90% CONFIDENCE5.9 years agoHappened as dated, per the source[1]: "Transportation history was made Nov. 8 in the Nevada desert, where Virgin Hyperloop tested human travel in a hyperloop pod for the first time".Virgin Hyperloop carried its first human passengers, Josh Giegel and Sara Luchian, through its DevLoop test tube in the Nevada desert at 107mph.0.60Dragonfly Launches for Titan
A nuclear-powered rotorcraft that will fly between sites on Saturn's moon Titan, arriving in the 2030s. Scheduled date.$3.4B0.60
