References 665% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%ent.china.com.cn/2026-09/23/content_43495909.shtmlent.china.com.cn· Posted Sep 27, 2026· Starts Jun 23, 2027 ✓· 24% of score
Estimated: iQIYI has given no date or window. The drama has had its distribution licence (30 episodes) since mid-2025 and released its first trailer on 23 September 2026, when iQIYI showed it on its 2027 slate. Liu Cixin's other long-delayed series, Three-Body, premiered 14 months after its first trailer and 7 months after its second, while it still waited for approval; Ball Lightning is already licensed, so this uses about nine months after the first trailer: 23 June 2027. Highly uncertain. Re-date when iQIYI announces.
- [2]75%球状闪电 (电视剧) - 维基百科zh.wikipedia.org· Added Sep 27, 2026· 24% of score
Gives the filming period of April to August 2022, the producers and the director.[1]
- [3]75%三体 (2023年电视剧) - 维基百科zh.wikipedia.org· Added Sep 27, 2026· 24% of score
Liu Cixin's Three-Body series: first trailer in November 2021, second in June 2022, premiere on 15 January 2023; the comparison for the estimate.[1]
- [4]85%爱奇艺科幻剧《球状闪电》首支预告公布：刘慈欣小说改编，陈思诚监制_手机新浪网finance.sina.cn· Published Sep 23, 2026· 24% of score
IT之家 on the first trailer at iQIYI's 2027 slate launch, the producers, director and leads, and the 30-episode licence.[1]
- [5]85%爱奇艺网剧《球状闪电》获发行许可：刘慈欣科幻小说改编、陈思诚监制_新浪科技_新浪网finance.sina.com.cn· Published Jul 14, 2025· 4% of score
The drama's distribution licence (30 episodes) in the April-June 2025 list, the missed 2023 slot and the registered synopsis.[1]
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