ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
Cowen's own timeline, not a confirmed date: he expects the bottom about a year after the cycle's October 2025 top, the same gap as the prior two cycles, unless a deep capitulation event pulls it forward to around May 2026. He has separately named $40,000 - where Realized Price and Balanced Price converge - as the level he watches for that bottom.[1]Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, argues Bitcoin's current cycle should bottom around October 2026 — about a year after its October 2025 peak near $126,000, matching the gap between top and bottom in each of Bitcoin's two prior cycles. He leaves room for an earlier low around May 2026 only if a sharp capitulation event pushes the year's returns well outside the range typical of past midterm-cycle years; CryptoQuant's on-chain models point to a similar September-November window.
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