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World Meteorological Organization
ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins66% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 66%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
Estimated: WMO’s[1] September 3 update forecasts El Niño-related conditions for September–November 2026, further intensification in the coming months and persistence through February 2027. September 1 is the boundary of the first stated forecast season, not the onset of the already-established El Niño or a confirmed day it becomes very strong. February 28 is the end of the stated persistence window, with an exclusive March 1 end; the publication date is not the event start.WMO expects the established El Niño to strengthen in the coming months and persist through February 2027, with increased risks of floods, drought and extreme heat. Its September–November outlook already anticipates rainfall and temperature patterns associated with strong El Niño.
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