Venezuela's Leader Is Decided at the End of 2026

选举发布于 2026/09/202026/09/20 14:59@OddsDesk 去时间线

开始于 2026/12/31

Venezuela's Leader Is Decided at the End of 2026 · Chronopin

Polymarket’s event “Venezuela leader end of 2026?”, filed under “Politics · Trump-Machado”, settles on whoever “officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET”, and is marked mutually exclusive^[1]
The market opened on Jan 4, 2026 at 1:09 PM ET and carries an End Date of Dec 31, 2026, though a chart label reads Dec 30, 2026 and the FAQ says it “is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 30, 2026”^[1]
Total volume is $97,046,435, which the FAQ rounds to “$97 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026”; there are 419 comments^[1]
The page prices Maduro and Rodríguez as near neighbours but does not agree with itself on the numbers: the headline list gives Nicolás Maduro 50.1% and Delcy Rodríguez 47%, while the outcome row gives Maduro 47% against a Buy Yes price of 52.9¢ and shows no percentage for Rodríguez at all beside her Buy Yes price of 48¢ – a price in cents, not a chance^[1]
Everyone else is priced out: “No Head of State” at about 1% and María Corina Machado at under 1% (0.2¢), with Edmundo González at 0.2¢ and Diosdado Cabello Rondón at 0.1¢, even though several long-shot names carry far larger volumes than the two front-runners – Richard Grenell $32,790,723 and Frank Donovan $25,841,140 against Maduro’s $3,114,172 and Rodríguez’s $2,031,565^[1]
The resolution rules turn on formality, not control: “officially holds” means formally appointed, confirmed if required, and sworn in, or otherwise confirmed by official government information, with official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela as the primary source; if Venezuela does not state clearly who is head of state, the market falls back to the UN’s protocol list, and where more than one is listed, to the one with primary status or else whoever first assumed the position^[1]
That distinction is the whole contest here, because Rodríguez and Maduro both claim the office – Rodríguez called Maduro Venezuela’s “only president” on Venezolana de Televisión, and “both he and Rodríguez claim that he remains the legal officeholder”, while Trump announced she had been “sworn in”^[2]
Polymarket lists a separate market, “Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?”, at 95% – far above her roughly 47% on the official-holder question, the gap between de facto power and formal title^[1]
How she got there: on 3 January 2026 at about 2:00 AM VET the United States struck targets in Venezuela including Caracas, detained Maduro and flew him to New York City; the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice ordered her that day to “assume and exercise, as interim president, all the powers, duties, and faculties inherent to the office” to guarantee administrative continuity, without initially setting a fixed term^[2]
She was sworn in on 5 January 2026 by her brother Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly, becoming “the first woman in Venezuelan history to perform the duties of the presidency”; CBS News dates the swearing-in to “early Monday”, two days after Maduro’s capture and while he awaited arraignment in a US federal court on drug smuggling charges^[2][3]
The Wikipedia infobox dates her interim presidency from 5 January 2026 while the Supreme Tribunal ordered her to assume it on 3 January, a two-day gap the article notes as “Designated by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice to ensure administrative continuity on 3 January, formally sworn in two days later”^[2]
Recognition has moved in her favour over the year: the European Union said on 5 January 2026 that it does not recognize her legitimacy, and Marco Rubio said on ABC the administration did not consider her or her cohorts to have a legitimate claim to power – “legitimacy for their system of government will come about through a period of transition and real elections” – but the United States formally recognized her authority on 12 March 2026^[2][3]
The newer Wikipedia account adds what the January reporting could not: the release of political prisoners on 8 January, the Amnesty Law for Democratic Coexistence signed 30 January 2026, the 29 January 2026 reform ending PDVSA’s monopoly, $300 million received on 20 January 2026 under a $500 million oil export agreement with the United States, and state visits to Grenada, Barbados, The Hague, India and Suriname through 10 September 2026^[2]
Her position was built on the vice presidency she held from 14 June 2018, and CBS notes she has not been indicted in the US although she was sanctioned during Trump’s first term for helping Maduro “maintain power and solidify his authoritarian rule”; in February 2026 EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said she would propose lifting the EU sanctions on her^[2][3]
Polymarket’s own context note, stamped Sep 20, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC and labelled an “Experimental AI-generated summary”, reads the narrow spread as trader assessment of consolidation risks for the interim government, opposition leverage in US-backed transition talks involving her brother Jorge, and uncertainty over whether elections or other institutional shifts happen before year-end, with the timing and format of any presidential vote still unresolved^[1]
Wikipedia’s presidents navbox records the same unsettled position in its final entry: “Maduro (de jure), Rodríguez (de facto)”^[2]

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Venezuela's Leader Is Decided at the End of 2026

参考资料 3可信度 78%

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Argentina Votes for a President and Congress

Angola Elects a National Assembly and President

The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office

Brazil Votes in the First Round of Its Presidential Election

France Votes in the 2027 Presidential Election

El Salvador Votes Under Its New Re-election Rules

Spain Holds Its Nationwide Local Election Day

The 2026 Ballon d'Or Is Awarded in London

Mexico Elects a New Chamber of Deputies

The 2026 F1 Constructors' Title Is Settled at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Americans Vote in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election

Norwegian Nobel Committee Names the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner

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参考资料 3可信度 78%

建议更正

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