- Start
- Dec 31, 202650% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
The Next James Bond Is Announced
- Both exchanges are running markets on who Amazon MGM will name as the next James Bond, and they are among the most heavily traded entertainment contracts on either book: $968,768 total volume on Polymarket's 24-outcome event and $2,312,690 on Kalshi's KXBOND-30[1][2]
- Jack Lowden leads on both but at different prices: Polymarket has him at 42% (41.7% on the summary strip, 41.9% in the page's own AI-generated note) while Kalshi shows 46%, down 5, with its trade panel reading "Odds 48% chance" against the 46¢ YES[1][2]
- The gap is wider on the second name: Callum Turner is 19.8-20% on Polymarket but 31% (down 3) on Kalshi, where the YES price is 39¢[1][2]
- The two markets are not asking quite the same question, which explains much of the difference: Polymarket resolves on an official announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, while Kalshi's contract asks whether the actor is cast "before Jan 1, 2030" and is titled for 2029[1][2]
- Polymarket therefore carries a "No Bond chosen" outcome at 20% - and it is the single most traded line on the page at $445,256, more than double Lowden's $169,240 - capturing the chance that nobody is named in time at all[1]
- Beyond the leaders, Polymarket prices Jack Barton at 9%, Harris Dickinson at 3%, Tom Francis at 2% and Theo James at 1%, with Jack O'Connell, Richard Madden, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Josh O'Connor, Henry Cavill, Tom Hardy, Paul Mescal, Jacob Elordi, Pierce Brosnan, Tom Holland and Michael B Jordan all under a cent or two; Kalshi's displayed board has only Lowden, Turner and Dickinson at 14%[1][2]
- Polymarket's market context note, updated Sep 20, 2026, attributes Lowden's surge to "recent comments from his Slow Horses co-star Gary Oldman suggesting the role has already been cast and expressing hope it goes to Lowden", alongside his spy-thriller credentials, and says producers Amy Pascal and director Denis Villeneuve "have signaled a methodical process with an expected announcement by year's end"[1]
- Resolution rules differ too: Polymarket settles on the first official announcement "regardless of any changes made thereafter", sourcing Amazon MGM Studios or a consensus of credible reporting, while Kalshi verifies from Variety and restricts the question to the next film in the series going back to Dr. No (1962), excluding spin-offs and unauthorized productions[1][2]
- The Polymarket event opened May 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET and is dated to end Dec 31, 2026 (its chart label and FAQ say Dec 30, 2026); the Kalshi market opened Jun 26, 2025, 1:00pm EDT and closes early on the outcome, otherwise by Jan 1, 2030 at 10:00am EST[1][2]
References 260% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%polymarket.com/event/next-james-bond-actor-398polymarket.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Dec 31, 2026 ✓· 50% of score
No casting date has been announced. Polymarket's market runs to 31 December 2026 and prices a one-in-five chance that no Bond is named by then, so the end of 2026 is a market-implied estimate rather than a scheduled event.
- [2]70%Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond (before 2030) - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 50% of score
The second exchange on the same casting question, over a longer window; its top two names match Polymarket's[1], which is why both are cited.
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