The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
Nothing is scheduled: the pin is dated to the market's own deadline, December 31, 2026, the last day the contract can resolve Yes, and the market page shows that only a 4% chance.
The clash market sets a far lower bar than an invasion - any use of force between the two militaries - and still only reaches 5.8%, which is what puts the invasion price in context.[1]
Rebecca Grant and Gordon Chang describe Indo-Pacific Command's "Hellscape" framework built to counter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which is the deterrence the market's low price is reading.[1]
Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most.
Now, that doesn’t mean that they will invade in 2027, but certainly implies a significant milestone.
