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Guatemala Votes for a President and Congress
ESTIMATED60% CONFIDENCEin 280 daysWikipedia[1] gives "June and August 2027 (presumptive)" and states the first round will be held "in June 2027" with a runoff in August; with only the month fixed, the pin takes the last day of June.Guatemalans elect a president, all 160 seats in Congress and 340 municipal governments in June 2027, with a presidential runoff in August if nobody wins outright.0.67Finland Elects Its First Post-NATO Parliament
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 207 daysThe Ministry of Justice's own election service gives the election day as "Sunday 18 April 2027", matching Wikipedia's[1] "Parliamentary elections will be held in Finland on 18 April 2027".Finns elect the 200 members of the Eduskunta on 18 April 2027, the first parliamentary election since Finland joined NATO in 2023.0.66Kenya Votes for a President, Senate and Assembly
SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 321 daysWikipedia[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in Kenya on 10 August 2027", the second Tuesday in August that Kenya's constitution fixes for a general election.Kenyans elect a president and the members of the National Assembly and Senate on 10 August 2027. Incumbent William Ruto is seeking a second term.0.65Argentina Votes for a President and Congress
SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsWikipedia[1] states "General elections are scheduled to take place in Argentina on 24 October 2027", the fourth Sunday of October that Argentine law sets for a general election.Argentines choose a president and renew Congress on 24 October 2027, the first presidential election since Javier Milei's 2023 win.0.64El Salvador Votes Under Its New Re-election Rules
SCHEDULED82% CONFIDENCEin 158 daysThe Wikipedia[1] article's infobox gives the election date as 28 February 2027, the same day as the legislative election.Salvadorans elect a president and the Legislative Assembly on 28 February 2027, the first national vote since the country scrapped presidential term limits in 2025.0.63Mexico Elects a New Chamber of Deputies
SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 256 daysWikipedia[1] states "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico on 6 June 2027", the first Sunday of June set by Mexican electoral law.Mexicans elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies on 6 June 2027, the midterm test of Claudia Sheinbaum's supermajority, held alongside state elections.0.63Spain Holds Its Nationwide Local Election Day
SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 242 daysThe Wikipedia[1] article's infobox gives 23 May 2027, the date fixed by Spain's electoral law for the simultaneous local and regional polling day.Every Spanish municipality votes on 23 May 2027, alongside regional elections in twelve autonomous communities on the same day.0.61Nigeria Votes for a President and National Assembly
SCHEDULED80% CONFIDENCEin 115 daysWikipedia[1] states "General elections will be held in Nigeria on 16 January 2027 to elect the president and vice president, members of the Senate and House of Representatives", and INEC's own published election calendar carries the same date.Nigerians elect a president, vice president, senators and members of the House of Representatives on 16 January 2027, with governorship and state assembly votes following on 6 February.0.60Morocco Votes for a New House of Representatives
CONFIRMED88% CONFIDENCETodayConfirmed as under way, per maroc.ma[1][3][6]: "Jour du scrutin : Vote sur l'ensemble du territoire national pour l'élection des membres de la Chambre des représentants" on "23 septembre 2026", and AP: "Voting centers across the North African kingdom are open from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time" (Morocco has been on GMT since 20 September).Moroccans vote from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Wednesday 23 September 2026 for all 395 seats in the House of Representatives, with results due the next day. It is the first national vote since the deadly youth-led Gen Z protests.0.60The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker
United States Capitol, Washington, DC
SCHEDULED72% CONFIDENCEin 102 daysThe Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.KalshiPolymarketThe Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.0.59Israelis Elect the Next Knesset
Knesset, Kiryat Ben-Gurion, Jerusalem
SCHEDULED72% CONFIDENCEin 34 daysPolymarket's[1][3] rules state "Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026", a Tuesday, the weekday Israeli elections are always held on.PolymarketKalshiIsrael's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.0.57The Gambia Elects a National Assembly
SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 199 daysWikipedia[1] states "Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in The Gambia on 10 April 2027", citing the IEC's announcement of its 2026-2027 election dates.Gambians elect the 53 constituency seats of the National Assembly on 10 April 2027, a date announced by the Independent Electoral Commission.0.57
Junta Electoral Central
