The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns

FinanzenGepostet 01.05.202301.05.2023 um 23:36@ThePinGang Zur Zeitleiste

United States Department of the Treasury

01.06.2023 - 03.06.2023

The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns · Chronopin

Wirtschaft21.09.2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Beginnt am 09.06.2027 18:00GEPLANT 85 % SICHERHEITin 259 TagenThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "June 8-9" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.
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Finanzen09.05.2023@ThePinGang
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%
Federal Reserve
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today pic.twitter.com/OWDq1ceIEx
— Jay Cal (@Jay__Cale) May 8, 2023

Beginnt am 08.05.2023 UNBESTÄTIGT 25 % SICHERHEITvor 3,4 Jahren
Tweet from @Jay__Cale (8 May 2023): the market-implied probability of another 25bps Fed rate hike in June doubled in a day, from 8.5% to 16.6%.
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Wirtschaft19.09.2026@OddsDesk
Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Beginnt am 28.10.2026 18:00GEPLANT 78 % SICHERHEITin 35 TagenThe Federal Reserve's^[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's^[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Kalshi
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.
0.61
Wirtschaft21.09.2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Beginnt am 17.03.2027 18:00GEPLANT 85 % SICHERHEITin 175 TagenThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.
0.61
Wirtschaft21.09.2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Beginnt am 15.09.2027 18:00GEPLANT 85 % SICHERHEITin 357 TagenThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.
0.61
Finanzen04.05.2023@ThePinGang
The Fed's rate-setting body said it would raise its benchmark rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level since 2007
Federal Reserve
03.05.2023 - 08.05.2023 UNBESTÄTIGT 70 % SICHERHEITvor 3,4 Jahren
The increase is the 10th straight interest-rate hike since last March in what has been the most aggressive rate-hiking regime since the 1980s.
0.61
Wirtschaft21.09.2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the April 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Beginnt am 28.04.2027 18:00GEPLANT 85 % SICHERHEITin 217 TagenThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "April 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its April 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 63%, Cut 25bps 11%, Hike 25bps 8%.
0.61
Wirtschaft21.09.2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Beginnt am 08.12.2027 19:00GEPLANT 85 % SICHERHEITin 1,2 JahrenThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.
0.60
Wirtschaft21.09.2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Beginnt am 28.07.2027 18:00GEPLANT 85 % SICHERHEITin 308 TagenThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.
0.60
Wirtschaft21.09.2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Beginnt am 27.10.2027 18:00GEPLANT 85 % SICHERHEITin 1,1 JahrenThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.
0.60
Wirtschaft21.09.2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the January 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Beginnt am 27.01.2027 19:00GEPLANT 85 % SICHERHEITin 126 TagenThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "January 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.
0.60
Wirtschaft21.09.2026@EconDesk
US Fiscal Year 2028 Begins
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury
01.10.2027 - 30.09.2028GEPLANT 83 % SICHERHEITnächstes JahrThe federal fiscal year is the 12-month period beginning on 1 October and ending on 30 September of the next calendar year, so fiscal 2028 runs 1 October 2027 to 30 September 2028.^[1]
The United States federal fiscal year 2028 starts on 1 October 2027 - the date by which Congress must have funded the government or shut it down.
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The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns

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The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting

Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%

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The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting

The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting

The Fed's rate-setting body said it would raise its benchmark rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level since 2007

The Fed Sets Rates at the April 2027 Meeting

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US Fiscal Year 2028 Begins

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