Pins zu tag:Economy

Fischer Black and Myron Scholes give a closed-form price for a European option in the Journal of Political Economy, in the same year the Chicago Board Options Exchange opens. The formula becomes the language of the derivatives market.

Public Law 106-286 ended the annual congressional fight over China's trade status and cleared the last American obstacle to its entry into the WTO. It is the single act that opened the United States market to Chinese manufacturing on permanent terms.

China became the WTO's 143rd member on 11 December 2001, fifteen years after applying. Its export share of world trade roughly quadrupled over the next two decades, and the bargain struck in Doha is still what the tariff argument is about.

Der US-Zoll erhob ab dem 6. Juli 2018 zusätzliche 25 Prozent auf 818 Zolltariflinien im Wert von rund 34 Milliarden Dollar chinesischer Importe — der Auftakt des Handelskriegs und das erste Mal seit den 1930er-Jahren, dass die USA einen großen Handelspartner in dieser Größenordnung besteuerten.

After eighteen months of escalating tariffs the two sides signed an 'historic and enforceable agreement' in the East Room on 15 January 2020 — purchase commitments, intellectual-property rules and a ban on forced technology transfer. Most of the tariffs stayed in place.

Four days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Biden ordered crude out of the SPR as the US share of an IEA release of 60 million barrels. It did not stop there: by that summer 180 million barrels had gone, the biggest emergency sale the reserve had ever made, and it left the stockpile at levels not seen since the 1980s.

Federal funding lapsed just after midnight on 1 October 2025 and stayed lapsed for 43 days, the longest shutdown ever, over a fight about expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.

A memorandum signed in Washington commits Taiwanese chipmakers such as TSMC to at least $250 billion of new US investment plus $250 billion in Taiwan credit guarantees, in return for a 15% tariff cap and Section 232 chip-tariff exemptions for companies building US fabs.

A stopgap covering six of the twelve appropriations bills expired on 31 January 2026, closing roughly half of federal agencies until the House passed a funding package 217-214 on 3 February.

A two-week stopgap for DHS alone ran out on 14 February 2026, and the department stayed unfunded for 76 days - the longest shutdown of a single agency in US history - until the President signed a bipartisan bill on 30 April.

The first tranche of the 172-million-barrel release went out as a request for proposals on 13 March 2026, covering 86 million barrels from Bryan Mound, West Hackberry and Bayou Choctaw. Bids were due the following Tuesday, and the borrowers must hand the oil back with extra barrels on top.

DOE went back to the market on 1 April 2026 for a third exchange, this one drawn entirely from the Bryan Mound caverns outside Freeport, Texas. Bidders had until the following Monday, and a limited Jones Act waiver let them move the crude on foreign-flagged ships to get it to refiners faster.

DOE had asked for up to 30 million barrels of sweet crude from West Hackberry on 9 April 2026; eight days later it awarded contracts for 26 million of them, with deliveries starting at once. By then more than 10 million barrels of the wider exchange had already reached the market.

After soliciting up to 92.5 million barrels from all four storage sites - the largest single exchange in the reserve's history - DOE awarded contracts for 53.3 million on 11 May 2026, at a return premium of about 28 per cent. That is 15.1 million extra barrels owed back to the stockpile.

Weekly Energy Department data published on 10 August 2026 put the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 298.7 million barrels, down 6.1 million in a week and the lowest reading in the EIA series since January 1983. The stockpile had held about 415 million barrels before the Iran war began.

H.R. 6500, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, was signed on 2 September 2026, four weeks before the fiscal year ran out. Its appropriations run from 1 October to 11 December 2026, pushing the next shutdown fight past the midterm elections.

Fiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September’s Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 14, the inflation print the Fed sees before its October 28 decision. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi put headline CPI above 3.4% at 93% and above 3.6% at 46%, so the market was centred on a 3.5–3.6% year-over-year rate.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.

The stopgap signed in September expires on 11 December 2026, the deadline for Congress to enact the twelve fiscal 2027 appropriations bills or pass another continuing resolution before agencies shut down.

Der gesetzliche Mindestlohn in Deutschland steigt zum 1. Januar 2027 auf 14,60 Euro pro Stunde – die zweite Stufe der größten je von der Mindestlohnkommission empfohlenen Erhöhung.

The BLS Employment Situation report for December 2026, out at 8:30 a.m. ET on January 8, 2027, fixes the unemployment rate the year closes on. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had U-3 above 4.0% at 81% but only 5% above 5.0%, so traders expected a labour market that has loosened without cracking.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.

India's finance minister presents the Union Budget for 2027-28 in the Lok Sabha, by convention on 1 February at 11am.

The statutory deadline for the President to send the fiscal 2028 budget to Congress is the first Monday in February 2027 - a deadline no president has met in over a decade.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its April 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 63%, Cut 25bps 11%, Hike 25bps 8%.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.

The United States federal fiscal year 2028 starts on 1 October 2027 - the date by which Congress must have funded the government or shut it down.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.

Kalshi’s recession market for 2027 prices the chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates — despite the KXRECSSNBER ticker, no NBER call is involved. On 20 September 2026 it sat at 25%, its 2026 contract at 6%, and Polymarket’s cumulative "recession by end of 2027" book, which also counts an NBER announcement, was higher still at 34.5%.