Pins zu tag:Geopolitics

Germany's 1,350-tonne Krupp-built railway gun Schwerer Gustav fired roughly 48 shells at the Soviet fortress city of Sevastopol in June 1942, its only combat use in the war. Trains as War Machines features the gun as an extreme case of rail warfare.

The International Military Tribunal read its judgment in Courtroom 600 of the Nuremberg Palace of Justice: nineteen of the twenty-two defendants were convicted, twelve were sentenced to death and three were acquitted. It was the first time the leaders of a state were tried by an international court for waging aggressive war and for crimes against humanity.

Richard Nixon spent 21 to 28 February 1972 in Beijing, Hangzhou and Shanghai, meeting Mao Zedong on the day he arrived. No sitting US president had set foot in the People's Republic, and the two governments had had no diplomatic relations for 23 years.

At the end of Nixon's visit the two governments published a joint statement setting out, separately, what each believed about Taiwan. Washington said it 'acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain that there is but one China' — the sentence US policy has rested on ever since.

From 1 January 1979 Washington recognised the People's Republic as the sole legal government of China and withdrew recognition from Taipei, ending thirty years in which the United States had treated the Republic of China on Taiwan as the government of all China.

Four weeks after relations began, Deng Xiaoping stood on the South Lawn for a full arrival ceremony — the first visit to Washington by a leader of Communist China. He went on to charm Congress and the press, and to be photographed in a ten-gallon hat at a Texas rodeo.

Three months after breaking relations with Taipei, Congress wrote the substitute into law: an unofficial relationship run through the American Institute in Taiwan, arms 'of a defensive character', and a declared US capacity to resist any resort to force against Taiwan. It has governed the question ever since.

Hours after announcing allied air attacks on Iraq, President Bush ordered the first emergency sale in the reserve's history. The Energy Department released its sales notice on 17 January 1991 and eventually sold 17.3 million barrels to 13 companies, half of what it offered: bids for sour crude came in too low to accept.

China became the WTO's 143rd member on 11 December 2001, fifteen years after applying. Its export share of world trade roughly quadrupled over the next two decades, and the bargain struck in Doha is still what the tariff argument is about.

China's Ministry of Commerce slashed its second-half 2010 rare earth export quotas by 72%, tightening its grip on the roughly 97% of global rare earth supply it mined at the time. The move, framed as an environmental crackdown on unregulated mining, sent rare earth prices soaring within days.

With Libyan production off the market, the International Energy Agency put 60 million barrels into it on 23 June 2011, and the US share came out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The auction was heavily oversubscribed: more than 90 offers came in for 30.2 million barrels of light sweet crude, and 15 companies took delivery.

Eight months after the first cases in Guinea, the WHO declared the Ebola epidemic in West Africa a public health emergency of international concern. It became the largest Ebola outbreak in history: more than 28,000 cases and 11,000 deaths across Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Four days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Biden ordered crude out of the SPR as the US share of an IEA release of 60 million barrels. It did not stop there: by that summer 180 million barrels had gone, the biggest emergency sale the reserve had ever made, and it left the stockpile at levels not seen since the 1980s.

The first Speaker of the House to visit Taiwan in 25 years touched down in Taipei on the night of 2 August 2022. Within hours the PLA's Eastern Theater Command began live-fire exercises around the island, opening the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.

The Commerce rule that took effect on 7 October 2022 put advanced computing chips, the tools to make them and the Americans who service them behind a licence. It is the sharpest single break in the technology relationship since 1979.

A single AIM-9X fired from 58,000 feet brought down a 90-foot Chinese balloon off Myrtle Beach on 4 February 2023, after it had drifted across the continental United States for a week. It was the F-22's first air-to-air kill, and it cost Antony Blinken his trip to Beijing.

September and October, Egypt will have food crisis as Russia kills off Ukraine's Agriculture industry and ability to export through it's ports. Black Sea likely becomes a no-go zone.

Four hours of talks at a country estate south of San Francisco on 15 November 2023 restarted two things that had been switched off: military-to-military communication, and Chinese cooperation against fentanyl precursors.

A memorandum signed in Washington commits Taiwanese chipmakers such as TSMC to at least $250 billion of new US investment plus $250 billion in Taiwan credit guarantees, in return for a 15% tariff cap and Section 232 chip-tariff exemptions for companies building US fabs.

Thirty-two IEA member nations agreed on 11 March 2026 to release 400 million barrels between them after Iranian attacks slowed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The American share was 172 million barrels, the largest US release ever ordered, and Secretary Wright said it would take about 120 days to deliver.

Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).

President Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen signed a pact at UN Headquarters letting the US add defense areas at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig and expand Pituffik Space Base. It bars non-NATO states from military installations in Greenland and has no end date.

Trump will meet Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews at about 4pm on 23 September 2026, a reception US presidents almost never give a visiting head of state. It opens Xi's 23-25 September state visit, his first to Washington since 2015.

479 military personnel from every branch, an Armed Forces Full Honor Cordon, a Rose Garden military review and a flyover by a B-2 and four F-22s: the formal welcome for Xi Jinping on the morning of 24 September 2026, his first White House arrival ceremony since 2015.

Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's winner market, which includes any second round, had Flavio Bolsonaro at 58% and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 42%; a runoff, if no one clears 50%, falls on October 25.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on 9 October at 11:00 CEST, choosing from 287 nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations). On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had no clear favourite: Doctors Without Borders at 13%, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 12% and Save the Children at 11%.

Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.

Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.

California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.

Texas votes for a U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Democrat James Talarico at 60% against Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, and its companion market gave Democrats a 61% chance of taking the chamber.

The 31st UN climate conference runs 9-20 November 2026 at the Antalya Expo Center, hosted by Türkiye, with about 100,000 participants expected.

On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.

Nigerians elect a president, vice president, senators and members of the House of Representatives on 16 January 2027, with governorship and state assembly votes following on 6 February.

Kyrgyzstan holds a presidential election on 27 January 2027, brought forward after parliament reset the date. Incumbent Sadyr Japarov has said he will seek a second term.

Salvadorans elect a president and the Legislative Assembly on 28 February 2027, the first national vote since the country scrapped presidential term limits in 2025.

The Federated States of Micronesia holds general elections on 2 March 2027 for its 14-member Congress, including the four state senators elected every four years.

Gambians elect the 53 constituency seats of the National Assembly on 10 April 2027, a date announced by the Independent Electoral Commission.

Emmanuel Macron's second term ends on May 13, 2027, which puts the first round on Sunday, April 11 and the runoff on April 25. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's 128-name market had Marine Le Pen at 37%, Edouard Philippe at 25% and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 13%.

Finns elect the 200 members of the Eduskunta on 18 April 2027, the first parliamentary election since Finland joined NATO in 2023.

Every Spanish municipality votes on 23 May 2027, alongside regional elections in twelve autonomous communities on the same day.

Mexicans elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies on 6 June 2027, the midterm test of Claudia Sheinbaum's supermajority, held alongside state elections.

Mongolia holds its ninth presidential election since democratisation in the first half of June 2027. Incumbent Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh cannot stand again.

Guatemalans elect a president, all 160 seats in Congress and 340 municipal governments in June 2027, with a presidential runoff in August if nobody wins outright.