The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
Polymarket's[3] rules state "Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026", a Tuesday, the weekday Israeli elections are always held on.
Kalshi's government-formation ladder is what dates the aftermath: 28% for a confidence vote before December 23, 2026 and 92% before February 3, 2027, so the market expects weeks of coalition talks.
Polymarket's[1] Netanyahu market is a coin flip at 51% for him leaving office by December 31, 2026, which is the same question the election answers.
The Times of Israel's daily briefing of September 15, 2026 is given over to Israel's upcoming election and the smaller parties that could decide it, which matches the open field Polymarket[1][3] prices behind Eizenkot and Netanyahu.
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Junta Electoral Central