The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
Russian law holds federal elections on a single voting day, the third Sunday of September, which is September 20 in 2026; Monocle reports voting runs across the three days from September 18, and Polymarket’s[2] market on the winner ends September 20.
Polymarket's[1] seat-count market states that legislative elections are scheduled in Russia in September 2026 and brackets United Russia's result, with 340-354 seats the favourite at 43%.
The Monocle Daily, recorded on September 18, 2026, says "Russians go to the polls across three days to elect a new State Duma", which is what dates the vote to September 18-20 rather than the single Sunday.[1]
Fact & Spin leads its September 17, 2026 episode with "Russia votes in the first Duma election since the Ukraine War", confirming the vote is under way that week.[1]
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