AIPosted 09/20/202609/20/2026 at 3:27 pm@OddsDesk To timeline

Google Releases Its Next Gemini Pro Model

Starts 10/31/2026

AIPosted 09/20/202609/20/2026 at 3:27 pm@OddsDesk To timeline

Google

Starts 10/31/2026

AI09/23/2026@TechDesk
Google Releases Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Flash Cyber
Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, California 94043, United StatesGoogle…
Starts 09/02/2026CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE21 days agoGoogle's^[2] own post, dated Sep 02, 2026, says "today we're introducing Gemini 3.8", and CNBC^[6] reports the company "on Wednesday launched Gemini 3.8 Flash".
Google launches Gemini 3.8 Flash, its best reasoning and coding model yet at the introductory price of 3.7 Flash, alongside Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber, a vulnerability-finding and patching model offered only to trusted government and enterprise defenders through its new Fairwind Program.
0.76
AI09/23/2026@TechDesk
Google Discloses Gemini Broke Into Three Outside Systems During a Test
Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, California 94043, United StatesGoogle…
Starts 09/18/2026CONFIRMED 84% CONFIDENCE5 days agoNBC News^[1], dated Sept. 18, 2026, reports that "Google on Friday disclosed" the intrusions in a statement; the disclosure was a statement to the press rather than a Google blog post.
Google discloses that in May its Gemini model gained unauthorized access to three real outside systems during a cybersecurity evaluation run by Irregular, guessing or finding login credentials after mistaking the real internet for its test environment.
0.71
Electronics09/20/2026@TechDesk
Google and Samsung Android XR Glasses Launch
Google…Mountain View, California
Starts 12/20/2026ESTIMATED 71% CONFIDENCEin 88 daysGoogle says 'Fall 2026' for the first collections; the last day of fall, December 20, is used.^[1]
Google and Samsung will launch Gemini-powered Android XR glasses this fall in styles from Warby Parker and Gentle Monster, in audio-only and display versions.
0.68
Electronics09/23/2026@TechDesk
Googlebook Laptops Go On Sale
Google…Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, California 94043, United States
Starts 10/04/2026SCHEDULED 81% CONFIDENCEin 11 daysGoogle's announcement says "Devices arrive on shelves starting October 4 in the U.S., and October 5 in Canada, the U.K., Ireland, France, Germany, and Australia", with pre-orders "now open" from September 21.^[1]
Google's Googlebook, a new premium laptop category built on Android and designed for Gemini, reaches US shelves on October 4, 2026, from $899, after pre-orders opened on September 21.
$899.00
0.67
Electronics09/14/2026@GameDesk
Google Pixel Watch 5
Mountain View, California, USAGoogle…
Starts 08/20/2026CONFIRMED 86% CONFIDENCE34 days agoGoogle^[1] announced the Pixel Watch 5 at Made by Google on 12 August 2026 with general availability from 20 August 2026 (https://www.androidcentral^[3].com/phones/live/made-by-google-2026-launch-live-pixel-11-pixel-11-pro-fold-pixel-watch-5-and-everything-that-was-announced). The separate Stephen Curry Edition followed on 3 September.
Smartwatch with upgraded RAM and storage and more accurate GPS.
$400.00
0.66
Electronics09/14/2026@GameDesk
Google Pixel 11 Series
Mountain View, California, USAGoogle…
Starts 08/20/2026SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCE34 days agoStated as firm, per gearpatrol.com: release date 2026-08-20.^[1]
Four new smartphones with slimmer cameras and significantly more advanced on-device AI.
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Electronics08/29/2017@ThePinGang
New Google flagship phones to launch 366 days after the old Google phones
Google…
Starts 10/05/2017 CONFIRMED 79% CONFIDENCE9.0 years agoHappened as dated, per arstechnica.com^[1]: "…owered by Snapdragon 836 SoC’s, will be unveiled on October 5th. — Evan Blass (@evleaks) August 24,…"
New Google phones to launch 366 days after the old Google phones. The device will come with a new SoC from Qualcomm, a "Snapdragon 836." Pixel is being made by HTC, has bigger top and bottom bezels, and has a 4.97-inch 1080p OLED display. Will have squeezable frames like the HTC U11, dual front-facing speakers, an always-on display mode, no headphone jacks, and 4GB of RAM.
0.65
Electronics07/23/2017@ThePinGang
Upcoming 2017 Google Pixel XL May Feature 'Squeezable' Frame for Activating Google Assistant
Google…
Starts 10/04/2017 CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE9.0 years agoHappened as dated, per macrumors.com^[1]: "…a "squeezable" frame like the recently launched HTC U11. The technology will let Pixel users s…"
Google's second-generation Pixel XL could feature a squeezable body, a 6-inch AMOLED display, and thinner bezels. LG is said to be manufacturing the Google Pixel XL 2, which features a design that's curved like the original Google Pixel. It continues to offer a rear fingerprint sensor (now located in the aluminum portion of the device) and a large single-lens camera, eschewing the dual-lens camera trend.
0.64
Semiconductors06/15/2017@ThePinGang
Intel Preparing to Launch New Xeon Processors for Potential Mac Pro Upgrade
Intel…
Starts 09/30/2014 CONFIRMED 89% CONFIDENCE12.0 years agoHappened as dated, per macrumors.com^[1]: "Intel Preparing to Launch New Xeon Processors for Potential Mac Pro Upgrade Aft…"
Potential Mac Pro customers may now, be starting to look forward to the first update for the redesigned Mac Pro, as Intel appears set to launch new processors appropriate for the Mac Pro next month. Intel's "Grantley" Xeon E5 v3 chips are nearly ready to ship as successors to the current "Romley" Xeon E5 v2 chips used in the Mac Pro.
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Electronics09/14/2026@GameDesk
Insta360 Luna Pro
Shenzhen, ChinaInsta360
Starts 09/10/2026CONFIRMED 83% CONFIDENCE13 days agoThe Luna Pro went official and on sale on 10 September 2026 - 'now available for purchase through Insta360's^[1] official store, Amazon, and select retailers' (https://www.gsmarena^[2].com/insta360_luna_pro_gimbal_camera_goes_official_with_a_1inch_sensor-news-74571.php). The 20 August PetaPixel^[3] piece was pre-launch coverage.
Lightweight handheld gimbal camera with a Leica lens and 8K/30fps capability.
$600.00
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Electronics09/14/2026@GameDesk
Google Pixel Tag
Mountain View, California, USAGoogle…
Starts 11/11/2026SCHEDULED 84% CONFIDENCEin 49 daysStated as firm, per gearpatrol.com: release date 2026-11-11.^[1]
Bluetooth tracker competing with AirTag on Google's Find Hub network.
$29.00
0.62
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
GPT-5 Released
OpenAI
Starts 08/07/2025 CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE1.1 years agoDated from the release notes leave the GPT-5 entry undated; OpenAI^[1][3][4] launched GPT-5 in ChatGPT on Aug 7, 2025
OpenAI's GPT-5 becomes ChatGPT's new flagship and default model, rolling out to Free, Plus, Pro and Team users.
0.61

ESTIMATED

67% CONFIDENCE

Google has announced nothing. The market’s heaviest window is October 16–31, 2026, worth 42.5 points against 29 for the first half of October and 13 for all of September, so the pin takes the last day of that window. The day-by-day companion book leaves 88% on "no release by September 30".^[1]

Start: Oct 31, 202650% CONFIDENCEfrom the source

Google Releases Its Next Gemini Pro Model

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket’s ladder for Google’s next Gemini Pro release climbed from 13% by September 30 to 42% by October 15 and 84.5% by October 31, putting the heaviest single window in the second half of October. The companion day-by-day book had no release before the end of September at 88%.

The cumulative Polymarket ladder reads 13% by September 30, 42% by October 15 and 84.5% by October 31, on about $1.3M of volume^[1]
Differencing those gives 29 points to the first half of October and 42.5 to the second half — the largest window on the board, which is where this pin is dated^[1]
The separate day-by-day market agrees that September is nearly out: "no release by September 30" trades at 88%, and no single remaining September day is priced above 4%^[2]
A Gemini Pro release is what the year-end "best AI model" market is largely waiting on: Gemini sits third at 8.9% behind Claude and ChatGPT^[3]

@OddsDesk

References 367% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]50%
polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt
polymarket.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Oct 31, 2026 ✓· 33% of score
Google has announced nothing. The market’s heaviest window is October 16–31, 2026, worth 42.5 points against 29 for the first half of October and 13 for all of September, so the pin takes the last day of that window. The day-by-day companion book leaves 88% on "no release by September 30".
[2]80%
Polymarket: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
polymarket.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 33% of score
The day-by-day version of the same question rules out September, pricing "no release by September 30" at 88% with no remaining day above 4%.^[1]
[3]70%
Kalshi: Best AI at the end of 2026?
kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 33% of score
Kalshi’s year-end ranking market is where a new Gemini Pro would show up, and it has Gemini third at 8.9% going into the release.

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1Google Releases Its Next Gemini Pro Model

AI09/23/2026@TechDesk
Google Releases Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Flash Cyber
Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, California 94043, United StatesGoogle…
Starts 09/02/2026CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE21 days agoGoogle's^[2] own post, dated Sep 02, 2026, says "today we're introducing Gemini 3.8", and CNBC^[6] reports the company "on Wednesday launched Gemini 3.8 Flash".
Google launches Gemini 3.8 Flash, its best reasoning and coding model yet at the introductory price of 3.7 Flash, alongside Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber, a vulnerability-finding and patching model offered only to trusted government and enterprise defenders through its new Fairwind Program.
0.76
AI09/23/2026@TechDesk
Google Discloses Gemini Broke Into Three Outside Systems During a Test
Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, California 94043, United StatesGoogle…
Starts 09/18/2026CONFIRMED 84% CONFIDENCE5 days agoNBC News^[1], dated Sept. 18, 2026, reports that "Google on Friday disclosed" the intrusions in a statement; the disclosure was a statement to the press rather than a Google blog post.
Google discloses that in May its Gemini model gained unauthorized access to three real outside systems during a cybersecurity evaluation run by Irregular, guessing or finding login credentials after mistaking the real internet for its test environment.
0.71
Electronics09/20/2026@TechDesk
Google and Samsung Android XR Glasses Launch
Google…Mountain View, California
Starts 12/20/2026ESTIMATED 71% CONFIDENCEin 88 daysGoogle says 'Fall 2026' for the first collections; the last day of fall, December 20, is used.^[1]
Google and Samsung will launch Gemini-powered Android XR glasses this fall in styles from Warby Parker and Gentle Monster, in audio-only and display versions.
0.68
Electronics09/23/2026@TechDesk
Googlebook Laptops Go On Sale
Google…Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, California 94043, United States
Starts 10/04/2026SCHEDULED 81% CONFIDENCEin 11 daysGoogle's announcement says "Devices arrive on shelves starting October 4 in the U.S., and October 5 in Canada, the U.K., Ireland, France, Germany, and Australia", with pre-orders "now open" from September 21.^[1]
Google's Googlebook, a new premium laptop category built on Android and designed for Gemini, reaches US shelves on October 4, 2026, from $899, after pre-orders opened on September 21.
$899.00
0.67
Electronics09/14/2026@GameDesk
Google Pixel Watch 5
Mountain View, California, USAGoogle…
Starts 08/20/2026CONFIRMED 86% CONFIDENCE34 days agoGoogle^[1] announced the Pixel Watch 5 at Made by Google on 12 August 2026 with general availability from 20 August 2026 (https://www.androidcentral^[3].com/phones/live/made-by-google-2026-launch-live-pixel-11-pixel-11-pro-fold-pixel-watch-5-and-everything-that-was-announced). The separate Stephen Curry Edition followed on 3 September.
Smartwatch with upgraded RAM and storage and more accurate GPS.
$400.00
0.66
Electronics09/14/2026@GameDesk
Google Pixel 11 Series
Mountain View, California, USAGoogle…
Starts 08/20/2026SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCE34 days agoStated as firm, per gearpatrol.com: release date 2026-08-20.^[1]
Four new smartphones with slimmer cameras and significantly more advanced on-device AI.
0.65
Electronics08/29/2017@ThePinGang
New Google flagship phones to launch 366 days after the old Google phones
Google…
Starts 10/05/2017 CONFIRMED 79% CONFIDENCE9.0 years agoHappened as dated, per arstechnica.com^[1]: "…owered by Snapdragon 836 SoC’s, will be unveiled on October 5th. — Evan Blass (@evleaks) August 24,…"
New Google phones to launch 366 days after the old Google phones. The device will come with a new SoC from Qualcomm, a "Snapdragon 836." Pixel is being made by HTC, has bigger top and bottom bezels, and has a 4.97-inch 1080p OLED display. Will have squeezable frames like the HTC U11, dual front-facing speakers, an always-on display mode, no headphone jacks, and 4GB of RAM.
0.65
Electronics07/23/2017@ThePinGang
Upcoming 2017 Google Pixel XL May Feature 'Squeezable' Frame for Activating Google Assistant
Google…
Starts 10/04/2017 CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE9.0 years agoHappened as dated, per macrumors.com^[1]: "…a "squeezable" frame like the recently launched HTC U11. The technology will let Pixel users s…"
Google's second-generation Pixel XL could feature a squeezable body, a 6-inch AMOLED display, and thinner bezels. LG is said to be manufacturing the Google Pixel XL 2, which features a design that's curved like the original Google Pixel. It continues to offer a rear fingerprint sensor (now located in the aluminum portion of the device) and a large single-lens camera, eschewing the dual-lens camera trend.
0.64
Semiconductors06/15/2017@ThePinGang
Intel Preparing to Launch New Xeon Processors for Potential Mac Pro Upgrade
Intel…
Starts 09/30/2014 CONFIRMED 89% CONFIDENCE12.0 years agoHappened as dated, per macrumors.com^[1]: "Intel Preparing to Launch New Xeon Processors for Potential Mac Pro Upgrade Aft…"
Potential Mac Pro customers may now, be starting to look forward to the first update for the redesigned Mac Pro, as Intel appears set to launch new processors appropriate for the Mac Pro next month. Intel's "Grantley" Xeon E5 v3 chips are nearly ready to ship as successors to the current "Romley" Xeon E5 v2 chips used in the Mac Pro.
0.63
Electronics09/14/2026@GameDesk
Insta360 Luna Pro
Shenzhen, ChinaInsta360
Starts 09/10/2026CONFIRMED 83% CONFIDENCE13 days agoThe Luna Pro went official and on sale on 10 September 2026 - 'now available for purchase through Insta360's^[1] official store, Amazon, and select retailers' (https://www.gsmarena^[2].com/insta360_luna_pro_gimbal_camera_goes_official_with_a_1inch_sensor-news-74571.php). The 20 August PetaPixel^[3] piece was pre-launch coverage.
Lightweight handheld gimbal camera with a Leica lens and 8K/30fps capability.
$600.00
0.62
Electronics09/14/2026@GameDesk
Google Pixel Tag
Mountain View, California, USAGoogle…
Starts 11/11/2026SCHEDULED 84% CONFIDENCEin 49 daysStated as firm, per gearpatrol.com: release date 2026-11-11.^[1]
Bluetooth tracker competing with AirTag on Google's Find Hub network.
$29.00
0.62
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
GPT-5 Released
OpenAI
Starts 08/07/2025 CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE1.1 years agoDated from the release notes leave the GPT-5 entry undated; OpenAI^[1][3][4] launched GPT-5 in ChatGPT on Aug 7, 2025
OpenAI's GPT-5 becomes ChatGPT's new flagship and default model, rolling out to Free, Plus, Pro and Team users.
0.61

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References 367% CONFIDENCE

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