- Start
- Oct 31, 202650% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Will the US-Iran Ceasefire Last Through October 31?
- The U.S. and Iran agreed an initial ceasefire in April; a June memorandum meant to end the war within 60 days became nearly defunct after Iran struck three commercial vessels in July.
- As of September 18 the fire pause had entered its ninth day with no Iranian missile or drone attack reported, while the two sides remain between ceasefire and all-out war.
- Polymarket's ladder: through September 20 97%, September 25 84%, September 30 80%, October 31 46%.
References 368% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptptpolymarket.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Oct 31, 2026 ✓· 33% of score
October 31 is the latest date on Polymarket's ceasefire ladder, where traders price it at 46%; the ceasefire could end sooner.
- [2]80%2026 Iran war - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org· Added Sep 20, 2026· 33% of score
Background on the April ceasefire and the conflict's course.[1]
- [3]75%Iran War 2026 - Day 203 Update - 18 September 2026globalsecurity.org· Published Sep 18, 2026· 33% of score
Reports the fire pause in its ninth day through September 18.[1]
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