PROGRAMADO73% DE CONFIANZARussian law holds federal elections on a single voting day, the third Sunday of September, which is September 20 in 2026; Monocle reports voting runs across the three days from September 18, and Polymarket’s[1][2] market on the winner ends September 20.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).
Anthropic, 500 Howard Street, San Francisco, CAAnthropic
ESTIMADO65% DE CONFIANZANo official date: September 21 is the day Polymarket's[1][2] per-day market prices highest, at 31% on its outcome row (the page header reads 30.5%), with September 22 at 25% and September 24 at 15%, and “No release by September 30” at 22%. The figures are the chance on each row, not the Buy Yes or Buy No prices in cents beside them.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Prediction-market traders expected Anthropic to ship the successor to Claude Opus 5 (released July 24, 2026) within days. On 19 September 2026 Polymarket's per-day market made September 21 the single likeliest day at 31%, ahead of September 22 at 25%, and its deadline market gave a release by September 30 an 83% chance and by October 31 98%. Anthropic had not announced the model; the “Opus 5.1” name comes from leaked early-access identifiers and early tester reports.
Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USASpaceX
PROGRAMADO79% DE CONFIANZASpaceX[1], citada el 22 de septiembre de 2026: "Ahora se apunta a lanzar el Vuelo 14 de Starship tan pronto como el lunes 28 de septiembre, a la espera de la aprobación regulatoria. La ventana de lanzamiento de 75 minutos se abrirá a las 7:15 a. m. CT". Ya se retrasó una vez desde el 22 de septiembre y la licencia de la FAA seguía pendiente.
Kalshi
Polymarket
14.º vuelo de prueba del vehículo de lanzamiento Starship de dos etapas. 3.er vuelo de la Starship V3 y primer vuelo de Starship que desplegará satélites (un grupo de satélites Starlink conocido como Starlink Group 31-1) en una órbita terrestre baja estable.
Se espera que la nave vuele a unos 275 km de altitud sobre la Tierra y complete aproximadamente 6 órbitas alrededor del planeta durante casi 10 horas, con un amerizaje previsto en el océano Pacífico, al oeste de Chile.
El objetivo principal de prueba del propulsor en el Vuelo 14 será ejecutar con éxito el lanzamiento, el ascenso, la separación de etapas, el encendido de retorno (boostback) y el encendido de aterrizaje en un punto de amerizaje mar adentro, en el Golfo.
Starship llevará por primera vez 26 satélites Starlink V3 a órbita, con los que se busca ampliar en gran medida la capacidad de la red y las velocidades para los usuarios. Cada satélite Starlink V3 añadirá 1 Tbps de capacidad a la constelación. Despega desde la Plataforma de Lanzamiento Orbital 2, SpaceX Starbase, Texas, EE. UU., hacia una órbita terrestre baja. El propulsor debe amerizar en el golfo de México.
PROGRAMADO84% DE CONFIANZAThe US federal fiscal year runs 1 October to 30 September, so fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026 and ends on 30 September 2027.[1]
Polymarket
Fiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.
Palacio do Planalto, Praca dos Tres Poderes, Brasilia, Brazil
PROGRAMADO73% DE CONFIANZAPolymarket's[1][2] rules open with "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026", which is the first Sunday of October, the date Brazilian law sets.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's winner market, which includes any second round, had Flavio Bolsonaro at 58% and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 42%; a runoff, if no one clears 50%, falls on October 25.
London Palladium, 8 Argyll Street, London W1F 7TF, United Kingdom
PROGRAMADO71% DE CONFIANZAYahoo[3] Sports and Athlon both give Monday 26 October 2026 for the ceremony, and Polymarket's[2] Ballon d'Or market ends 26 October, so the date is firm even though organisers had not formally confirmed the venue.
Kalshi
Polymarket
For the first time the Ballon d'Or leaves Paris: the 2026 ceremony is on Monday 26 October 2026 in London, marking 70 years since the first award. On 20 September 2026 Harry Kane was a clear favourite on both exchanges at 55-56%, with Lamine Yamal at 22% and Kylian Mbappé at 8%.
PROGRAMADO72% DE CONFIANZAPolymarket's[1][3] rules state "Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026", a Tuesday, the weekday Israeli elections are always held on.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.
ESTIMADO68% DE CONFIANZAEl 31 de octubre es la fecha más lejana de la escala de Polymarket[1] sobre el alto el fuego, que los operadores valoran en un 46%; el alto el fuego podría romperse antes.
Polymarket
Polymarket se pregunta cuánto aguantará el frágil alto el fuego entre EE. UU. e Irán. El 20 de septiembre de 2026 los operadores daban un 97% a que sobreviviera al 20 de septiembre, un 80% hasta el 30 de septiembre y un 46% hasta el 31 de octubre, después de que un memorando de junio quedara estancado e Irán atacara buques comerciales en julio.
ESTIMADO67% DE CONFIANZAGoogle no ha anunciado nada. La ventana de mayor peso del mercado es del 16 al 31 de octubre de 2026, con 42,5 puntos frente a 29 de la primera mitad de octubre y 13 de todo septiembre, por lo que el pin toma el último día de esa ventana. El mercado paralelo día a día deja un 88% en "sin lanzamiento antes del 30 de septiembre".[1]
Polymarket
Polymarket
El 20 de septiembre de 2026, la escala de probabilidades de Polymarket sobre el próximo lanzamiento de Gemini Pro de Google subía del 13% para el 30 de septiembre al 42% para el 15 de octubre y al 84,5% para el 31 de octubre, situando la ventana individual de mayor peso en la segunda mitad de octubre. El mercado paralelo día a día daba un 88% a que no hubiera lanzamiento antes de que acabara septiembre.
PROGRAMADO80% DE CONFIANZAElection Day for federal midterms is fixed by federal law as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November; the source[1] article states the 2026 midterms fall on Nov. 3, 2026.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Voters nationwide decide control of the U.S. House and Senate in the first midterm election of Donald Trump's second term. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, along with the generic congressional ballot, have swung toward Democrats over the course of 2026, a reversal from the start of the cycle, as Trump's approval rating slid and voters cited cost-of-living pressures as a top concern.
Texas State Capitol, 1100 Congress Avenue, Austin, Texas
PROGRAMADO72% DE CONFIANZAPolymarket[1][2] resolves on "the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election"; federal law sets Election Day on November 3, 2026, and the market's own end date is that day.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Texas votes for a U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Democrat James Talarico at 60% against Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, and its companion market gave Democrats a 61% chance of taking the chamber.
California State Capitol, 1315 10th Street, Sacramento, California
PROGRAMADO70% DE CONFIANZAPolymarket's[1][2] rules name "the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026", the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Polymarket
Polymarket
California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.
Spotify, Regeringsgatan 19, 111 53 Stockholm, Sweden
ESTIMADO65% DE CONFIANZASpotify[2] has not announced when 2026's Wrapped drops. The 2025 report - the source Polymarket[1] names - was published on 3 December 2025, and recent editions have all landed in the first days of December, so early December 2026 is an estimate.
Polymarket
Spotify's annual Wrapped report closes the streaming year, and on 20 September 2026 Polymarket already treated it as settled: Bad Bunny was priced at 86%, with Drake at 7% and Taylor Swift at 3%. Wrapped has landed in the first week of December in recent years.
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
PROGRAMADO78% DE CONFIANZAThe Federal Reserve’s[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.
PROGRAMADO78% DE CONFIANZAPolymarket[1] resolves the market on who leads Venezuela at the end of 2026, with the end date set to December 31, 2026.
Polymarket
On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.
ESTIMADO60% DE CONFIANZANo casting date has been announced. Polymarket's[1] market runs to 31 December 2026 and prices a one-in-five chance that no Bond is named by then, so the end of 2026 is a market-implied estimate rather than a scheduled event.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Amazon MGM's search for the seventh James Bond is one of the most heavily traded entertainment markets on either exchange. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Jack Lowden at 42% and Callum Turner at 20% - but also a 20% chance no Bond is named by 31 December 2026 at all; Kalshi's longer market had Lowden in the mid-40s and Turner in the high 30s.
Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine
ESTIMADO64% DE CONFIANZANo date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.
Polymarket
Polymarket
On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.
PROGRAMADO75% DE CONFIANZAAn annual count is settled when the year ends: Kalshi[1] expires the 2026 event on December 31, 2026 and Polymarket[2] closes its version at 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, so the date follows the market’s terms rather than an estimate.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Kalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.
Sony Pictures Studios, 10202 West Washington Boulevard, Culver City, CA 90232, USA
PROGRAMADO72% DE CONFIANZAThe 2026 calendar year closes on 31 December, and Polymarket's[1] own rules tie settlement to Box Office Mojo's[2] 2026 calendar-gross table once that day's data is available.
Polymarket
Polymarket's $17m market on the year's biggest film was close to done on 20 September 2026: Spider-Man: Brand New Day was priced at 94%, with Avengers: Doomsday a distant 4% and everything else at a cent or less. It resolves on Box Office Mojo's 2026 domestic calendar gross once 31 December's numbers land.
Presidential Office Building, 122 Chongqing South Road, Taipei, Taiwan
ESTIMADO63% DE CONFIANZANothing is scheduled: the pin is dated to the market's own deadline, December 31, 2026, the last day the contract can resolve Yes, and the market page shows that only a 4% chance.[1]
Polymarket
Polymarket
Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.
PROGRAMADO78% DE CONFIANZAA year-high market is decided when the year ends: Kalshi[1] expires the event at 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2027, which makes December 31, 2026 the last day it can be settled on. The date is fixed by the market’s own terms, not estimated.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Kalshi’s year-high ladder for Ethereum settles on the highest price ETH touches in 2026. On 20 September 2026, with ether near $2,600, traders gave $3,500 a 30% chance, $4,000 22% and $5,000 9%. Polymarket’s equivalent book was a little more optimistic, pricing a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%.
PROGRAMADO72% DE CONFIANZAThe Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.
Elysee Palace, 55 Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honore, Paris, France
PROGRAMADO78% DE CONFIANZAThe French government announced the date after a cabinet meeting on 30 June 2026, and the official service-public.gouv.fr[2] page now gives the rounds as "April 18 and May 2, 2027". This replaces the earlier reading, which derived April 11 from the constitutional window because Polymarket[1][3] said only "around April 2027".
Polymarket
Polymarket
Emmanuel Macron's second term ends on May 13, 2027, which puts the first round on Sunday, April 11 and the runoff on April 25. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's 128-name market had Marine Le Pen at 37%, Edouard Philippe at 25% and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 13%.
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA
ESTIMADO74% DE CONFIANZAThe market asks only whether the two negative quarters fall anywhere between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, so there is no single day to hang it on; by the convention for a year-only date the pin takes the last day of 2027. Kalshi[1][3] does not expire it until January 31, 2028, when the advance estimate for Q4 2027 is due. The 25% is the chance on Kalshi’s trade panel, which sits beside a 24¢ Yes price.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Kalshi’s recession market for 2027 prices the chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates — despite the KXRECSSNBER ticker, no NBER call is involved. On 20 September 2026 it sat at 25%, its 2026 contract at 6%, and Polymarket’s cumulative "recession by end of 2027" book, which also counts an NBER announcement, was higher still at 34.5%.
ESTIMADO69% DE CONFIANZANo docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s[2] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s[1][3] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Docking two Starships is the step that makes orbital propellant transfer — and with it Artemis and Mars — possible. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi gave it a 69% chance before 2028, while Polymarket’s dated ladder put only 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 against 51.5% by the end of 2027.
The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC
PROGRAMADO72% DE CONFIANZAFederal law sets Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, which falls on November 7 in 2028.[1]
Kalshi
Polymarket
Election Day for the 2028 U.S. presidential race is November 7, 2028, and Kalshi's winner market was still wide open on 20 September 2026: J.D. Vance led at 22%, followed by Jon Ossoff at 12% and Marco Rubio at 9.6%. The winner takes office on January 20, 2029.
