- Start
- Dec 9, 202675% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting
- The FOMC's final 2026 meeting runs 8–9 December, the last of the year's eight regularly scheduled meetings and one of the four accompanied by a Summary of Economic Projections[2]
- Kalshi's “Fed decision in December?” market makes a 25bp hike the favourite at 67%, with the Fed maintaining rates at 31% and a hike of more than 25bps at 3%[1]
- Polymarket agrees almost exactly: a 25 bps increase at 68%, no change at 31%, a 25 bps decrease at about 1.8% and a 50+ bps increase at about 1.4%[3]
- Kalshi's own page is inconsistent with itself: the outcome list shows Hike 25bps at 67% while the order ticket alongside it reads “Odds 69% chance”[1]
- Kalshi's post-meeting rate strikes put the fed funds rate above 4.00% at 85%, above 4.25% at 35% and above 4.50% at 1%[1]
- The Kalshi market opened on 29 September 2025, closes on 9 December 2026 at 1:59pm EST with projected payout at 2:09pm EST, and has $623,940 of volume; the Polymarket contract opened on 29 July 2026 and has $1,101,823[1][3]
- Polymarket defines the rate as the upper bound of the target federal funds range and resolves on the FOMC's statement after the 8–9 December meeting, rounding any change up to the nearest 25 bps, and resolving to “No change” if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting[3]
- Kalshi resolves each strike from the Federal Reserve as mutually exclusive outcomes, and if a scheduled FOMC meeting is cancelled the “Fed maintains rate” strike resolves Yes[1]
- The setup is the September hike: the Fed raised rates on 16 September to a 3.75-4.00% target range, “the first time since July 2023” per Bloomberg, and “the first rate hike in 3 years” per MarketWatch, with the median dot plot now at 4.1% for year-end 2026[1][3][4]
- The Fed “penciled in an additional hike before the end of the year”, though officials are “divided on next move” and chairman Kevin M. Warsh “left open-ended how much more interest rates may have to rise to tame inflation”; MarketWatch reads the projections as only one more move higher through 2027[1][4]
- Polymarket's note cites persistent August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, resilient GDP growth and unemployment near 4.1% as reinforcing upside inflation risks[3]
- Beyond December, Kalshi's January 2027 market has the Fed maintaining rates at 61%, a 25bp hike at 31% and a cut at 4%; Polymarket's related markets show a 25 bps hike at the October 2026 meeting at 56% and a 4.25% upper bound at the end of 2026 at 53%[3][4]
- On the Schwab Network on 17 September 2026, Jason England called the September 25bp hike warranted given the FOMC's prior 75 bps of cuts, said it gives Chair Kevin Warsh slack to reclaim the 2% inflation target while arguing the fed funds rate “is much higher than it should be”, and expected lasting volatility in equities and bonds ahead of a “tough” tentative October hike[5]
References 578% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]75%kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26deckalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Dec 9, 2026 ✓· 20% of score
The Federal Reserve’s[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s[4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.
- [2]95%Federal Reserve: Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov· Added Sep 20, 2026· 20% of score
The Federal Reserve’s own FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9, 2026 meeting, which fixes the decision on December 9.
- [3]80%Polymarket: Fed Decision in December?polymarket.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 20% of score
Polymarket runs the same December decision as its own book and closes it on December 9, 2026, independently confirming the date and pricing a 25 bps increase at 67.5%.
- [4]70%Kalshi: Fed decision in Jan 2027?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 20% of score
The next meeting’s Kalshi[1] book (hold 61%) is what traders think comes after December, and it dates the following decision to January 27, 2027.
- [5]72%Schwab Network: Fed’s Rate Hike Sets Up "Tough" October Meeting Amid Equity, Yield Volatilitypodcasts.apple.com· Published Sep 17, 2026· 20% of score
Schwab Network’s September 17, 2026 episode has Jason England calling the 25 bps September hike warranted and setting up a tough October meeting, which is the run-up the December decision follows.[1]
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