Pins matching tag:Polymarket

The Brewers beat the Rays 3–2 in Game 1 on October 23 and lead the best-of-seven World Series 1–0. MLB’s official feed records the final result; the championship remains undecided.

B.C. Conservatives are projected to form a majority government. Elections BC’s preliminary count shows leads in 64 of 93 districts; final counting begins November 6, and a swearing-in date is not yet established.

Lula wins Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff. The electoral authority’s 99.9%-counted snapshot gives him 51.77% of valid votes; the Chamber reports Flávio Bolsonaro at 48.23%.

Vučić concedes defeat to Serbia’s student-led movement after the October 25 election. Reuters reports his sample-based estimate of 135–140 Student List seats, while final results and government formation remain outstanding.

October 21 Polymarket prices put Iliana Iotova at 90.5% to win Bulgaria’s next presidential election, on US$1,305,441.59 event volume. Voting begins October 25; the contract includes any runoff and does not forecast a first-round win.

Toronto’s complete unofficial count gives Olivia Chow 532,201 votes (54.16%), ahead of Brad Bradford’s 404,013 (41.11%). Certification is separate from this election-night result.

Harry Kane wins the 2026 Men’s Ballon d’Or at London’s Palladium on October 26, ahead of Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal. The prior market forecast correctly favoured the eventual winner.

Ottawa’s complete unofficial count returns Mark Sutcliffe with 139,354 votes (44.65%), ahead of Jeff Leiper’s 105,819 (33.90%). The clerk’s certification remains separate.

Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.

October 21, 2026 snapshot: October 27: 31.65%; No release by October 31: 28.8%; October 29: 9.4%; October 28: 8.9%, on US$229,384.86 total event volume. October 27 is now the modal remaining individual release day at 31.65%, below a majority; no qualifying Anthropic release is confirmed by these prices.

Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.

The Rolex Paris Masters, an ATP Masters 1000 event, runs 31 October to 8 November 2026 at Paris La Défense Arena, its second year at the new home.

October 21 market odds imply the largest remaining interval in November, but only 13% by November 30 on US$1,660,393.97 volume. November 1 is a low-confidence window boundary, not an announced release.

October 21 Polymarket odds favour a November window for Opus 5.6 or higher: 60.5% by November 30 on US$11,087.15 event volume. November 1 is the estimated window boundary, not an official release date.

Voters nationwide decide control of the U.S. House and Senate in the first midterm election of Donald Trump's second term. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, along with the generic congressional ballot, have swung toward Democrats over the course of 2026, a reversal from the start of the cycle, as Trump's approval rating slid and voters cited cost-of-living pressures as a top concern.

Texas votes for a U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Democrat James Talarico at 60% against Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, and its companion market gave Democrats a 61% chance of taking the chamber.

An October 30 Polymarket snapshot gives California Proposition 40 a 22.5% passage chance on USD 4.48 million reported volume. Voters decide November 3; competing measures could affect implementation.

California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.

Mayor Karen Bass faces Councilmember Nithya Raman in the 3 November 2026 general municipal election, the first all-Democrat runoff for LA mayor after Raman edged out Spencer Pratt in June; the winner starts a four-year term on 14 December.

Polymarket asks whether the United States launches a qualifying air or missile strike on Iran by 11:59 PM ET on November 3, 2026. On November 2 traders priced 'Yes, the ceasefire holds' at 95.5%; by 03:30 UTC on November 3, after a reported US strike on Qeshm Island, the Yes price had fallen to 0.5%.

Godzilla Minus Zero opened in North America on November 6, 2026. On November 7 evening Pacific, Polymarket’s US$31–34 million opening-weekend bracket led at 54%, with US$185,057.04 traded; final receipts remained unknown.

New Zealand’s November 7 preliminary count projected National with 42 seats and Labour with 36, despite Labour leading the party vote. Official results are due November 27; the most-seats market remains a forecast.

Polymarket priced Christopher Luxon at 83% on November 7, 2026, while preliminary election results left government formation unresolved. Official results are due November 27; no new government is declared here.

Ontario Liberals vote online November 9–20, 2026, with results on November 21. On November 7, Polymarket priced Lee Fairclough around 65% and Navdeep Bains around 34% from US$19,830 traded.

SpaceX is targeting no earlier than November 13, 2026 for Starship Flight 15, according to Eric Berger’s November 5 report of launch vice president Kiko Dontchev’s UP.Summit remarks. No final liftoff time is announced.

Cabo Verde holds its presidential election on November 15, 2026, with a runoff on November 29 if no candidate wins a majority. On November 9 Polymarket priced incumbent José Maria Neves at about 95%, ahead of Joana Rosa at about 5%, on roughly $42,000 traded.

Ljubljana elects its mayor on November 15, 2026, with a runoff on November 29 if nobody wins a majority. On November 9 Polymarket priced incumbent Zoran Janković at about 63% and The Left's Luka Mesec at about 36%, on roughly $275,000 traded.

Rockstar's return to Vice City, the most anticipated game release in years, after slipping from an earlier 2026 target. Announced date.

On 27 October 2026 Polymarket put Anthropic shares listed and open for trading by November 19, 2026 at 52%, on US$5,906,665 of event volume. That strike is the first to pass even odds, so it marks the market's expected first day of trading.

On October 22, Polymarket’s public Taipei winner page showed Chiang Wan-an at 63% and Puma Shen at 37.6%, with US$1,761,117 total event volume. The November 28 vote is scheduled; the winner remains a prediction.

Polymarket traders price an 82.5% chance that Google will release its next Gemini Flash model (version 3.9 or higher) by November 30, 2026, with the largest single probability bracket falling across November after a 33% mark by October 31.

Polymarket traders price a 40% chance that DeepSeek will release its next Pro model by November 30, 2026, on over $24,000 in volume.

On 27 October 2026 Polymarket put Discord shares listed and open for trading by November 30 at 2.4%, on US$17,614 of event volume. No strike reaches even odds yet, so the date marks the biggest jump in the ladder, not a confident call.

Polymarket traders price a 55.5% chance that Google will release its next Gemini Flash-Lite model (version 3.6 or higher) by November 30, 2026, up from 16% by October 31.

On October 17, Polymarket priced a replacement announcement by November 30 at 62.5%, versus 18.5% by October 31 and 82.5% by December 31, with US$229,217 traded. November 30 is an estimated timeline marker, not an official appointment date.

Spotify's annual Wrapped report closes the streaming year, and on 20 September 2026 Polymarket already treated it as settled: Bad Bunny was priced at 86%, with Drake at 7% and Taylor Swift at 3%. Wrapped has landed in the first week of December in recent years.

An October18 market gives Kimi Antonelli a97.6% chance of the2026 drivers’ title on US$204.43 million traded. December6 is an estimated season-end marker; the title could be clinched earlier.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.

Polymarket's 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?' counts 25 bp cuts, including the December meeting. On November 2 traders priced zero cuts at 97.05%, with US$55.3 million traded.

Nashville leads the October 30 Polymarket snapshot at 22%, ahead of Miami at 16.5%. MLS schedules its final for December 18; the finalists and host remain undecided.

On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.

Amazon MGM's search for the seventh James Bond is one of the most heavily traded entertainment markets on either exchange. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Jack Lowden at 42% and Callum Turner at 20% - but also a 20% chance no Bond is named by 31 December 2026 at all; Kalshi's longer market had Lowden in the mid-40s and Turner in the high 30s.

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

Kalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.

Polymarket's $17m market on the year's biggest film was close to done on 20 September 2026: Spider-Man: Brand New Day was priced at 94%, with Avengers: Doomsday a distant 4% and everything else at a cent or less. It resolves on Box Office Mojo's 2026 domestic calendar gross once 31 December's numbers land.

Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

Kalshi’s year-high ladder for Ethereum settles on the highest price ETH touches in 2026. On 20 September 2026, with ether near $2,600, traders gave $3,500 a 30% chance, $4,000 22% and $5,000 9%. Polymarket’s equivalent book was a little more optimistic, pricing a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%.

Polymarket traders price a 39.5% chance that xAI will release Grok 5 by December 31, 2026, following the release of Grok 4.7 in September.