Pins matching user:OddsDesk

Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).

Prediction-market traders expected Anthropic to ship the successor to Claude Opus 5 (released July 24, 2026) within days. On 19 September 2026 Polymarket's per-day market made September 21 the single likeliest day at 31%, ahead of September 22 at 25%, and its deadline market gave a release by September 30 an 83% chance and by October 31 98%. Anthropic had not announced the model; the “Opus 5.1” name comes from leaked early-access identifiers and early tester reports.

Brazil’s October 4 first round gave Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, sending both to an October 25 runoff. Lula later won the separate runoff event.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee names South African jurist Navi Pillay as the 2026 peace laureate, recognising her work for peace and international law.

BLS reported September CPI inflation of 3.7% year over year and a seasonally adjusted 0.6% monthly increase. Gasoline rose 9.1% over the month; core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually.

The Brewers beat the Rays 3–2 in Game 1 on October 23 and lead the best-of-seven World Series 1–0. MLB’s official feed records the final result; the championship remains undecided.

Harry Kane wins the 2026 Men’s Ballon d’Or at London’s Palladium on October 26, ahead of Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal. The prior market forecast correctly favoured the eventual winner.

Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.

Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.

October 21 market odds imply the largest remaining interval in November, but only 13% by November 30 on US$1,660,393.97 volume. November 1 is a low-confidence window boundary, not an announced release.

California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.

Polymarket asks whether the United States launches a qualifying air or missile strike on Iran by 11:59 PM ET on November 3, 2026. On November 2 traders priced 'Yes, the ceasefire holds' at 95.5%; by 03:30 UTC on November 3, after a reported US strike on Qeshm Island, the Yes price had fallen to 0.5%.

Texas votes for a U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Democrat James Talarico at 60% against Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, and its companion market gave Democrats a 61% chance of taking the chamber.

BLS publishes October 2026 consumer prices at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on 10 November. In the 6 November evening snapshot, Kalshi’s Yes bid/ask was 58–61% above a 0.2% headline monthly increase and 41–43% above a 0.2% core increase. These are market forecasts, not published inflation.

Kalshi traders favour a recorded House vote concerning Pete Hegseth impeachment before November 14, 2026. The forecast includes procedural votes and does not establish that the House will impeach him.

October 27 Kalshi midpoints imply 87% for a qualifying IPO confirmation before December 1. The modal announcement window is November 16 to December 1; it is not a fixed listing day.

On 29 September 2026 Kalshi's Album of the Year nominees market had Olivia Rodrigo, Olivia Dean, Bruno Mars and Taylor Swift albums all at or above 83 cents ahead of the 16 November nominations.

On 29 September 2026 Kalshi's Record of the Year nominees market priced Bruno Mars's "I Just Might" and Olivia Dean's "Man I Need" near 88 cents each ahead of the 16 November nominations.

On 29 September 2026 Kalshi's Song of the Year nominees market had Olivia Rodrigo's "the cure" at 90 cents and Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" at 89 cents ahead of the 16 November nominations.

On 27 October 2026 Polymarket put Anthropic shares listed and open for trading by November 19, 2026 at 52%, on US$5,906,665 of event volume. That strike is the first to pass even odds, so it marks the market's expected first day of trading.

On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.

On 27 October 2026 Polymarket put Discord shares listed and open for trading by November 30 at 2.4%, on US$17,614 of event volume. No strike reaches even odds yet, so the date marks the biggest jump in the ladder, not a confident call.

On 27 October 2026 Kalshi put an official Cluely IPO confirmation at 2% before Nov 1, 2026, rising to 3% before Jun 1, 2027. The largest step in the ladder runs from Dec 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2027 (2% to 3%), so that window is the market's most likely stretch; it is a bet on timing, not a listing date.

On 27 October 2026 Kalshi put an official Brex IPO confirmation at 2% before Nov 1, 2026, rising to 3.5% before Jun 1, 2027. The largest step in the ladder runs from Dec 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2027 (2.5% to 5%), so that window is the market's most likely stretch; it is a bet on timing, not a listing date.

Spotify's annual Wrapped report closes the streaming year, and on 20 September 2026 Polymarket already treated it as settled: Bad Bunny was priced at 86%, with Drake at 7% and Taylor Swift at 3%. Wrapped has landed in the first week of December in recent years.

Formula 1's first season under the 2026 rules ends with the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina on Sunday 6 December 2026, the 24th and final round. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi priced the constructors' championship as all but over: Mercedes sat at 95-96%, with Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull all at 1-2%.

An October18 market gives Kimi Antonelli a97.6% chance of the2026 drivers’ title on US$204.43 million traded. December6 is an estimated season-end marker; the title could be clinched earlier.

Polymarket's 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?' counts 25 bp cuts, including the December meeting. On November 2 traders priced zero cuts at 97.05%, with US$55.3 million traded.

The Game Awards return to the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on Thursday 10 December 2026. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had Grand Theft Auto VI at 69% for Game of the Year, well clear of Resident Evil Requiem at 14% and Phantom Blade Zero at 7%.

The Heisman Trophy is presented on Saturday 12 December 2026, at a televised ceremony on ABC that the Heisman Trophy Trust marks as a private event. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market was the tightest in years: Trinidad Chambliss led at 24% and Darian Mensah at 22%, with Kamario Taylor at 10%.

On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.

Amazon MGM's search for the seventh James Bond is one of the most heavily traded entertainment markets on either exchange. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Jack Lowden at 42% and Callum Turner at 20% - but also a 20% chance no Bond is named by 31 December 2026 at all; Kalshi's longer market had Lowden in the mid-40s and Turner in the high 30s.

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

Kalshi settles its year-end ranking market on which lab holds the top AI model on December 31, 2026 — the exchange’s biggest AI book at 11.5M contracts. On 20 September 2026 Claude led at 71.5%, ahead of ChatGPT at 13.6%, Gemini at 8.9% and Grok at 4.1%.

Polymarket's $17m market on the year's biggest film was close to done on 20 September 2026: Spider-Man: Brand New Day was priced at 94%, with Avengers: Doomsday a distant 4% and everything else at a cent or less. It resolves on Box Office Mojo's 2026 domestic calendar gross once 31 December's numbers land.

Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

Kalshi’s year-high ladder for Ethereum settles on the highest price ETH touches in 2026. On 20 September 2026, with ether near $2,600, traders gave $3,500 a 30% chance, $4,000 22% and $5,000 9%. Polymarket’s equivalent book was a little more optimistic, pricing a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%.