- Russians vote for a new State Duma across three days, 18–20 September 2026[1][5][6]
- Polymarket's winner market gives United Russia a 99.8% chance of taking the most seats, with the Communist Party (KPRF), A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) and the LDPR all under 1%; the same page shows United Russia at 99.8% in its headline list and 100% in its outcome row (Buy Yes 99.8¢)[1]
- The companion seat-count market puts United Russia on 340–354 seats at 43% and 325–339 at 34%, with 310–324 at 10%, 355+ at about 9.5%, 295–309 at 3%, 280–294 at 2% and under 280 at 1%[5]
- The under-280 bracket carries the largest volume of any outcome ($428,914) while trading at just 1%[5]
- The market's own summary says the contest between the 325–339 and 340–354 ranges turns on “whether the party matches or exceeds its 2021 result of 324 seats”[5]
- That summary also reports that “Kremlin targets for the party-list vote have been adjusted downward to around 45-50 percent amid reports of stagnating ratings, economic strains, and war fatigue, while state pollsters project shares that could secure roughly 300-350 total seats depending on turnout and proportional allocation”, with independent surveys showing lower support[5]
- The winner market's summary attributes United Russia's position to incumbency and alignment with the presidential administration against a fragmented systemic opposition, and notes that “measures such as the Supreme Court removal of Yabloko's federal list have narrowed the range of alternatives”[1]
- Both markets opened on 7 January 2026 and carry an end date of 20 September 2026; volume is $4,648,609 on the winner market and $1,412,993 on the seat-count market[1][5]
- Resolution rests on a consensus of credible reporting and, where ambiguous, solely on official Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission; if results are not definitive the winner market resolves to “Other” after 30 September 2027 and the seat market to the lowest bracket after 31 May 2027[1][5]
- Related markets put the KPRF second in seats at 98%, and split the LDPR between third (52%) and fourth (48%)[1]
- Two podcast episodes frame it as the first Duma election since the outbreak of the war: The Monocle Daily's episode of 18 September 2026, “Why the first Duma elections since the outbreak of the Ukraine war matter to Russia”, opens with “Russians go to the polls across three days to elect a new State Duma”, and Fact & Spin's episode 1148 of 17 September 2026 leads with “Russia votes in the first Duma election since the Ukraine War”[6][7]
- Neither podcast page gives any election date, party, result or turnout figure beyond those one-line summaries[6][7]
Boundary research — 2026-10-25
Research checked 25 October 2026. Boundary coverage remains unverified.
The required map is the 225 single-member constituencies for the 2026 State Duma election. Older Duma district plans cannot establish the current boundaries.
The inspected Yabloko 2026 map bundle contains 99 constituency records across 43 regional diagrams. Its rings use local image coordinates rather than geographic longitude/latitude. It therefore does not supply a complete georeferenced national layer.
Still needed: all 225 geographic district polygons, matched to the enacted 2026 plan. No unverified boundary layer has been attached.
A further inspected 2026 map at duma.vollper.com explicitly describes approximate boundaries derived from precinct coordinates and Natural Earth regions, with schematic boundaries in Bashkortostan and Leningrad Oblast. It covers 214 constituencies on internationally recognized Russian territory and is not a verified complete 225-district legal polygon layer.
Research sources:
