Pins matching tag:Geopolitics

Latvians elect the 100-seat Saeima on 3 October 2026. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' United List leads the September polls at 22.7-23.8%, about ten points clear of the next party.

Brazil’s October 4 first round gave Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, sending both to an October 25 runoff. Lula later won the separate runoff event.

Bosnians elect the three-member Presidency, the state parliament, both entities' governments and the cantonal assemblies on 4 October 2026, the first general election since Milorad Dodik was removed from office in 2025.

Quebecers elect all 127 members of the National Assembly on 5 October 2026. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's Parti Québécois leads every late poll at about 30% and has promised a referendum on sovereignty.

Fiji, Tuvalu and Australia host the Pre-COP31 in Nadi from 5 to 8 October 2026, a preparatory meeting where Pacific governments will push to keep 1.5°C within reach, speed climate finance and put oceans on the negotiating agenda before COP31 in Antalya in November.

Taiwan's former president Tsai Ing-wen opens the Fourth Annual Stanford Conference on Tech and National Security on Wednesday 7 October 2026, on her first US trip since leaving office. The Hoover Institution has invited her to speak the next day.

Voters in Starmer's former London seat choose his successor on 8 October, with Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green leader Zack Polanski and 13 others.

OFAC issued General License 135 on October 9, authorizing Russian-origin diesel transactions, including US imports, until April 7, 2027, with specified state-account restrictions.

Five candidates, among them Raphaël Glucksmann, Olivier Faure and Ségolène Royal, compete in the first round of the centre-left primary on 9-10 October 2026, online and at about 1,000 tablet booths. A second round on 16-17 October names the candidate for the 2027 presidential election.

After talks in Beijing on 8-9 October 2026, the EU and China reached an understanding that Sefcovic said will halve Chinese hybrid and plug-in hybrid exports to the bloc, leaving the EV tariff dispute open.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee names South African jurist Navi Pillay as the 2026 peace laureate, recognising her work for peace and international law.

The Republic of China's National Day ceremony takes place on 10 October 2026 in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei, with honour guard performances, civic parades, an air force flyby and fireworks in Taitung.

Saudi authorities reported 12 deaths and 309 injuries after the October 10 attack on King Khalid International Airport. Airport operations were temporarily suspended; the toll is the October 11 update.

The October 15–16 European Council meets in Brussels on energy costs, the next EU budget and support for Ukraine. Published previews describe negotiating positions; summit conclusions remain ahead.

The Antarctic fisheries commission meets in Hobart from 19 to 30 October 2026 to set conservation measures for the 2026/27 season, after two straight early closures of the krill fishery.

Lula wins Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff. The electoral authority’s 99.9%-counted snapshot gives him 51.77% of valid votes; the Chamber reports Flávio Bolsonaro at 48.23%.

Vučić concedes defeat to Serbia’s student-led movement after the October 25 election. Reuters reports his sample-based estimate of 135–140 Student List seats, while final results and government formation remain outstanding.

The 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party meets in Beijing from 26 to 29 October 2026 for its fifth plenary session, centred on 'full and rigorous Party self-governance'.

Ottawa’s complete unofficial count returns Mark Sutcliffe with 139,354 votes (44.65%), ahead of Jeff Leiper’s 105,819 (33.90%). The clerk’s certification remains separate.

Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.

Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.

California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.

Polymarket asks whether the United States launches a qualifying air or missile strike on Iran by 11:59 PM ET on November 3, 2026. On November 2 traders priced 'Yes, the ceasefire holds' at 95.5%; by 03:30 UTC on November 3, after a reported US strike on Qeshm Island, the Yes price had fallen to 0.5%.

Texas votes for a U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Democrat James Talarico at 60% against Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, and its companion market gave Democrats a 61% chance of taking the chamber.

The 31st UN climate conference runs 9-20 November 2026 at the Antalya Expo Center, hosted by Türkiye, with about 100,000 participants expected.

WHO's IHR Emergency Committee on the Bundibugyo Ebola epidemic is due to reconvene, roughly three months after its 18 August meeting, to say whether the emergency still stands. WHO counts 7,890 confirmed cases and 3,799 deaths in the DRC as of 23 September 2026.

The 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting is scheduled for 18-19 November 2026 in Shenzhen, the third time China hosts, preceded by the APEC CEO Summit on 17-18 November.

WHO extended the polio Temporary Recommendations for a further three months from 21 August 2026, so the IHR Emergency Committee is expected to review whether polio remains a public health emergency around late November. Wild poliovirus type 1 stays confined to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

PAHO's Regional Verification Commission will decide in November 2026 whether the United States and Mexico, each a year into sustained measles transmission, keep their elimination status; Canada and the Americas region already lost theirs in November 2025.

The six-month joint Africa CDC and WHO continental Ebola preparedness and response plan, which sought US$518 million, covers June to November 2026 and so runs out at the end of November. Africa CDC's advisers still advise keeping the continental emergency in place.

On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.

The October 2025 Busan truce (a 10-point cut to the US fentanyl tariff, general licences for Chinese rare-earth exports, US soybean purchases, paused port fees) now lapses on January 10, 2027. Scott Bessent announced the two-month extension from November 10 as Xi Jinping landed in Washington.

Nigerians elect a president, vice president, senators and members of the House of Representatives on 16 January 2027, with governorship and state assembly votes following on 6 February.

Kyrgyzstan holds a presidential election on 27 January 2027, brought forward after parliament reset the date. Incumbent Sadyr Japarov has said he will seek a second term.

The Munich Security Conference, the annual gathering of heads of government, defence and foreign ministers at Munich's Hotel Bayerischer Hof, returns for its 2027 edition from 12 to 14 February.

Salvadorans elect a president and the Legislative Assembly on 28 February 2027, the first national vote since the country scrapped presidential term limits in 2025.

The Federated States of Micronesia holds general elections on 2 March 2027 for its 14-member Congress, with its ten district seats up for election; the four state senators, elected in 2025, are not on the ballot.

The annual 'Two Sessions' are expected to open in Beijing in early March 2027, with the NPC convening on about 5 March after the 2026 session approved the 15th Five-Year Plan.

Gambians elect the 53 constituency seats of the National Assembly on 10 April 2027, a date announced by the Independent Electoral Commission.

Emmanuel Macron's second term ends on May 13, 2027; the government has set the first round for Sunday, April 18 and the runoff for May 2. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's 128-name market had Marine Le Pen at 37%, Edouard Philippe at 25% and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 13%.

Finns elect the 200 members of the Eduskunta on 18 April 2027, the first parliamentary election since Finland joined NATO in 2023.

Every Spanish municipality votes on 23 May 2027, alongside regional elections in twelve autonomous communities on the same day.

The World Health Assembly opens in Geneva on 23 May 2027 with the Pandemic Agreement's pathogen access and benefit-sharing (PABS) annex due for consideration after member states extended the negotiations in 2026.

Mexicans elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies on 6 June 2027, the midterm test of Claudia Sheinbaum's supermajority, held alongside state elections.

Mongolia holds its ninth presidential election since democratisation in the first half of June 2027. Incumbent Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh cannot stand again.