Pins matching tag:Predicted

Prediction-market traders expected Anthropic to ship the successor to Claude Opus 5 (released July 24, 2026) within days. On 19 September 2026 Polymarket's per-day market made September 21 the single likeliest day at 31%, ahead of September 22 at 25%, and its deadline market gave a release by September 30 an 83% chance and by October 31 98%. Anthropic had not announced the model; the “Opus 5.1” name comes from leaked early-access identifiers and early tester reports.

Billboard's Hot 100 dated 10 October 2026, revealed on 5 October, is expected to open with 'Patient Zero' at No. 1. Kalshi prices the debut at 98%; it would be Swift's 16th No. 1 and tie Drake's record of ten No. 1 debuts.

Kalshi’s October 21 page priced Si Woo Kim at 12%, Eugenio López-Chacarra at 10% and Sungjae Im at 8.1%, displaying US$1,007,881 volume. The tournament runs October 22–25 at Woo Jeong Hills; no golfer holds a majority.

An October 23 Polymarket snapshot gives Lorne Doerkson a 92% chance of becoming British Columbia’s next premier, versus David Eby at 8.3%, on US$228,628 volume. Official polls open October 24 at 8 a.m. Pacific; the forecast is not an election result.

October 21 Polymarket prices put Iliana Iotova at 90.5% to win Bulgaria’s next presidential election, on US$1,305,441.59 event volume. Voting begins October 25; the contract includes any runoff and does not forecast a first-round win.

An October 23 Polymarket snapshot prices United Serbia at 69.5% and Students Win at 31%, on US$3,241,711.13 event volume. The forecast concerns the most seats, not a guaranteed majority or automatic appointment as prime minister.

The October 26 Ballon d’Or ceremony starts at 20:00 GMT at the London Palladium. An October 23 Polymarket snapshot favours Harry Kane at 77.4%, ahead of Lamine Yamal at 14.5%, on US$60,669,080 event volume.

October 21, 2026 snapshot: October 27: 31.65%; No release by October 31: 28.8%; October 29: 9.4%; October 28: 8.9%, on US$229,384.86 total event volume. October 27 is now the modal remaining individual release day at 31.65%, below a majority; no qualifying Anthropic release is confirmed by these prices.

On October 21, Kalshi’s 25-basis-point hike contract quoted 71–72¢ versus 26–27¢ for a hold. Estimated dollar volume was US$156,982.09; the official decision is due October 28 at 09:45 Eastern, with the outcome still uncertain.

On October 22, Kalshi priced an ECB hold at 96% and a 1–25 bp hike at 3%; its public page displayed US$63,620 event volume. The policy outcome remains unconfirmed ahead of the October 29 decision.

October 23 evening Brent forecast: leading implied band US$108.99–110.99/bbl; nearest 50% threshold US$110.99. Estimated dollar turnover US$97,930.48; October 30 observation remains ahead.

Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.

October 21 Kalshi midpoints imply 73% for a qualifying IPO confirmation before December 1. Estimated dollar volume US$519,314.98; November 1 marks the modal announcement window, not a fixed listing day.

October 21 Polymarket odds favour a November window for Opus 5.6 or higher: 60.5% by November 30 on US$11,087.15 event volume. November 1 is the estimated window boundary, not an official release date.

October 21 market odds imply the largest remaining interval in November, but only 13% by November 30 on US$1,660,393.97 volume. November 1 is a low-confidence window boundary, not an announced release.

October 21 launch odds favour the November 16–30 window: 53 percentage points, with 73.5% by November 30. The event traded US$37,948.11; no firm SpaceX day is announced.

On October 22, Polymarket’s public Taipei winner page showed Chiang Wan-an at 63% and Puma Shen at 37.6%, with US$1,761,117 total event volume. The November 28 vote is scheduled; the winner remains a prediction.

On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.

Polymarket traders price a 55.5% chance that Google will release its next Gemini Flash-Lite model (version 3.6 or higher) by November 30, 2026, up from 16% by October 31.

On October 17, Polymarket priced a replacement announcement by November 30 at 62.5%, versus 18.5% by October 31 and 82.5% by December 31, with US$229,217 traded. November 30 is an estimated timeline marker, not an official appointment date.

Polymarket traders price an 82.5% chance that Google will release its next Gemini Flash model (version 3.9 or higher) by November 30, 2026, with the largest single probability bracket falling across November after a 33% mark by October 31.

Polymarket traders price a 40% chance that DeepSeek will release its next Pro model by November 30, 2026, on over $24,000 in volume.

Spotify's annual Wrapped report closes the streaming year, and on 20 September 2026 Polymarket already treated it as settled: Bad Bunny was priced at 86%, with Drake at 7% and Taylor Swift at 3%. Wrapped has landed in the first week of December in recent years.

An October18 market gives Kimi Antonelli a97.6% chance of the2026 drivers’ title on US$204.43 million traded. December6 is an estimated season-end marker; the title could be clinched earlier.

Amazon MGM's search for the seventh James Bond is one of the most heavily traded entertainment markets on either exchange. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Jack Lowden at 42% and Callum Turner at 20% - but also a 20% chance no Bond is named by 31 December 2026 at all; Kalshi's longer market had Lowden in the mid-40s and Turner in the high 30s.

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.