References 180% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 80%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 1 reference, the source included, supports the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

• [1]80%
  Polymarket: Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...?

  polymarket.com· Posted Oct 15, 2026· Starts Nov 30, 2026 ✓· 100% of score

  Google has announced nothing. On Polymarket’s ladder for Google’s next Gemini Flash-Lite model (version 3.6 or higher), the probability trades at 16% by October 31 and rises to 55.5% by November 30, 2026, putting the majority probability threshold at the end of November.

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