References 365% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcmax100/when-will-bitcoin-hit-100k/kxbtcmax100-26kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Nov 30, 2026 ✓· 35% of score
This is a "by when" ladder with monthly rungs, not a scheduled event. November 2026 is the month the market prices highest (10% by November 1 rising to 23% by December 1, a 13-point month against 9 for October and 3 for December), and a month-only date takes its last day. The market gives the crossing only 26% before 2027 at all.
- [2]80%Kalshi: How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 35% of score
The year-high market prices "above $99,999.99 in 2026" at 28%, within a couple of points of this ladder’s 26%, so the two books agree on the odds of the level being reached.[1]
- [3]70%Markets Outlook: Bitcoin Breaks $70K — When Will It Hit a New All-Time High?podcasts.apple.com· Published Aug 20, 2026· 31% of score
CoinDesk’s August 20, 2026 Markets Outlook has 10x Research’s Markus Thielen turning bullish as Bitcoin passed $72K, the recovery this $100,000 ladder is priced off.[1]
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