Pins matching tag:Kalshi

The Norwegian Nobel Committee names South African jurist Navi Pillay as the 2026 peace laureate, recognising her work for peace and international law.

BLS reported September CPI inflation of 3.7% year over year and a seasonally adjusted 0.6% monthly increase. Gasoline rose 9.1% over the month; core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually.

Money20/20 USA, billed as America's number-one fintech event, returns to Las Vegas on 18-21 October 2026 with 11,000-plus senior attendees, 3,400-plus companies and keynotes from Kalshi's CEO, Adyen's risk chief and PNC's chairman.

Kalshi’s October 21 page priced Si Woo Kim at 12%, Eugenio López-Chacarra at 10% and Sungjae Im at 8.1%, displaying US$1,007,881 volume. The tournament runs October 22–25 at Woo Jeong Hills; no golfer holds a majority.

The Brewers beat the Rays 3–2 in Game 1 on October 23 and lead the best-of-seven World Series 1–0. MLB’s official feed records the final result; the championship remains undecided.

Harry Kane wins the 2026 Men’s Ballon d’Or at London’s Palladium on October 26, ahead of Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal. The prior market forecast correctly favoured the eventual winner.

Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.

On October 21, Kalshi’s 25-basis-point hike contract quoted 71–72¢ versus 26–27¢ for a hold. Estimated dollar volume was US$156,982.09; the official decision is due October 28 at 09:45 Eastern, with the outcome still uncertain.

The Federal Reserve voted 10–2 on October 28, 2026 to hold its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00%. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point increase.

The ECB left its three key policy rates unchanged: deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing operations 2.65% and marginal lending facility 2.90%.

Kalshi's KXWTI market for October 30, 2026 resolved on a WTI daily settlement price of US$104.12 per barrel, the December 2026 futures contract, up from US$90.42 a month earlier. Strikes up to US$103.99 resolved Yes and US$104.49 and above No.

Kalshi's October Brent contract settled at $112.35 per barrel, the one-minute close at 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026. The last pre-settlement book put its 50% point near $111-113, so the market was on point. Earlier forecast history is retained.

October 21 market odds imply the largest remaining interval in November, but only 13% by November 30 on US$1,660,393.97 volume. November 1 is a low-confidence window boundary, not an announced release.

Voters nationwide decide control of the U.S. House and Senate in the first midterm election of Donald Trump's second term. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, along with the generic congressional ballot, have swung toward Democrats over the course of 2026, a reversal from the start of the cycle, as Trump's approval rating slid and voters cited cost-of-living pressures as a top concern.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October 2026 Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on 6 November. On 3 November Kalshi priced payrolls above 0 at 82% and unemployment above 4.0% at 94%.

The NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series championship is decided at Homestead on November 7, 2026, with a 5 p.m. Eastern start. Kalshi prices Justin Allgaier at 52–53% in the current bid–ask book.

On November 10, 2026 the House voted 211-204 to refer Rep. Thomas Massie's eight-article impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the Judiciary Committee, which CBS reports effectively ends the push for now. Kalshi had priced a recorded House vote before November 14 at 93% that morning; a motion to refer is a qualifying vote under its rules.

BLS published October 2026 consumer prices on 10 November: the CPI-U rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted and core (less food and energy) rose 0.3%. BLS did not publish 12-month rates for October. Before the release, on 6 November evening, Kalshi's Yes bid/ask was 58–61% above a 0.2% headline monthly increase and 14–15% above 0.3%, centring on a 0.3% headline and 0.2% core.

On November 12, 2026 Nvidia's board announced that Jensen Huang had resigned as president, CEO and director effective immediately, with CFO Colette Kress interim CEO and Harvey C. Jones its first board chair. Polymarket's announced-exit market, listed November 8 at about 11.5% for a December 31 deadline, had spiked to near-certainty by the filing.

Ti West's Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol, with Johnny Depp as Scrooge, opens in the US on 13 November 2026. On 10 November Kalshi gave a 76% chance of a Rotten Tomatoes score above 30 (about US$208,000 traded) and Polymarket 68% for 30 or higher.

On 13 November 2026 the FAA stopped all departures at US airports from about 3:54 p.m. Eastern after a telecommunications failure hit its 22 en route air traffic control centers; flights resumed in the early evening while the cause, reportedly a network update and reboot on an L3Harris-run system, remains unconfirmed. By 14 November Kalshi's cause market had about US$340,000 traded and Polymarket priced an Iran attribution at 1.4%.

David Leitch's heist thriller How to Rob a Bank, with Nicholas Hoult and Zoe Kravitz, opens in the US on 13 November 2026. On 11 November Kalshi gave a 52% chance of a Rotten Tomatoes score above 50 (about US$65,000 traded).

The League of Legends World Championship final pits LCK's Gen.G against LPL's Bilibili Gaming at Barclays Center in Brooklyn on November 14, best of five. Kalshi priced Gen.G at 63% on November 14 (about $598K traded, up from 62% and $418K on November 13).

Gen.G of the LCK and Bilibili Gaming of the LPL meet in a best-of-five final for the Summoner's Cup at Brooklyn's Barclays Center on November 14, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET; Kalshi traders favoured Gen.G at 63% when read.

The Recording Academy reveals the nominees for the 69th Grammy Awards, the first under ABC's new broadcast deal and the first with five new categories including Best Asian Pop Music Performance and Best Latin Song.

On 29 September 2026 Kalshi's Album of the Year nominees market had Olivia Rodrigo, Olivia Dean, Bruno Mars and Taylor Swift albums all at or above 83 cents ahead of the 16 November nominations.

On 29 September 2026 Kalshi's Record of the Year nominees market priced Bruno Mars's "I Just Might" and Olivia Dean's "Man I Need" near 88 cents each ahead of the 16 November nominations.

On 29 September 2026 Kalshi's Song of the Year nominees market had Olivia Rodrigo's "the cure" at 90 cents and Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" at 89 cents ahead of the 16 November nominations.

Dancing with the Stars season 35 holds its semifinal on Tuesday 17 November 2026 on ABC and Disney+, with six couples left. Kalshi's elimination market, read 13 November, priced 'None' at 42%, Maura Higgins at 34%, Tatyana Ali at 17% and Connor Wood at 7%, on about $21,500 traded.

Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by fewer than 700 votes with 74% counted on 6 November 2026, and Alaska will not run its ranked-choice tabulation before 18 November. On 13 November Kalshi gave 56% to an AP call before 18 November and 81% before 19 November.

Rockstar's return to Vice City, the most anticipated game release in years, after slipping from an earlier 2026 target. Announced date.

November 11 Polymarket odds put Anthropic’s IPO launch on November 19 at 85% (November 20: 8%), on $333K of volume. Kalshi’s announcement ladder agrees: 95% before November 20.

On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.

Kalshi's November Brent contract resolves to a one-minute closing price on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST. On the evening of November 13 Pacific the Yes bid/ask put the 50% crossing at about US$93.5 per barrel (58-59% above US$91.99, 47-48% above US$93.99, 28-36% above US$95.99), with about 137,000 traded contracts across 30 thresholds. October finalized at US$112.35.

On 27 October 2026 Kalshi put an official Cluely IPO confirmation at 2% before Nov 1, 2026, rising to 3% before Jun 1, 2027. The largest step in the ladder runs from Dec 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2027 (2% to 3%), so that window is the market's most likely stretch; it is a bet on timing, not a listing date.

On 27 October 2026 Kalshi put an official Brex IPO confirmation at 2% before Nov 1, 2026, rising to 3.5% before Jun 1, 2027. The largest step in the ladder runs from Dec 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2027 (2.5% to 5%), so that window is the market's most likely stretch; it is a bet on timing, not a listing date.

Formula 1's first season under the 2026 rules ends with the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina on Sunday 6 December 2026, the 24th and final round. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi priced the constructors' championship as all but over: Mercedes sat at 95-96%, with Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull all at 1-2%.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.

The Game Awards return to the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on Thursday 10 December 2026. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had Grand Theft Auto VI at 69% for Game of the Year, well clear of Resident Evil Requiem at 14% and Phantom Blade Zero at 7%.

The Heisman Trophy is presented on Saturday 12 December 2026, at a televised ceremony on ABC that the Heisman Trophy Trust marks as a private event. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market was the tightest in years: Trinidad Chambliss led at 24% and Darian Mensah at 22%, with Kamario Taylor at 10%.

On November 11, 2026 (Pacific; 00:41 UTC on 12 November), Kalshi's Yes bid/ask for an OpenAI Astra 6.1-or-newer public release before November 13 was 22–23%, down from 52–54% on November 7, versus 96–97% before December 31. The release date remains unannounced; these are forecast windows.

Amazon MGM's search for the seventh James Bond is one of the most heavily traded entertainment markets on either exchange. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Jack Lowden at 42% and Callum Turner at 20% - but also a 20% chance no Bond is named by 31 December 2026 at all; Kalshi's longer market had Lowden in the mid-40s and Turner in the high 30s.

Kalshi’s year-high ladder for Ethereum settles on the highest price ETH touches in 2026. On 20 September 2026, with ether near $2,600, traders gave $3,500 a 30% chance, $4,000 22% and $5,000 9%. Polymarket’s equivalent book was a little more optimistic, pricing a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%.

Kalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.

Kalshi's next-CEO-of-Nvidia market, listed November 11, 2026, gave Ian Buck about 42% and interim CEO Colette Kress about 20% on November 12, on about $0.5 million traded, hours before Nvidia announced Jensen Huang had resigned. A permanent successor must be named by January 1, 2029 for the market to settle.

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

Kalshi settles its year-end ranking market on which lab holds the top AI model on December 31, 2026 — the exchange’s biggest AI book at 11.5M contracts. On 20 September 2026 Claude led at 71.5%, ahead of ChatGPT at 13.6%, Gemini at 8.9% and Grok at 4.1%.

On 27 October 2026 Kalshi priced each of five big banks at about 4.5% to 5% to serve as a lead underwriter for a Kraken US IPO before 1 January 2027. Bids of 1 to 2 cents sit against asks of 8 cents, so the quotes are wide and carry little signal about timing; it is a bet on who leads the deal, not a listing date.