2026 U.S. Midterm Elections Decide Control of Congress

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• Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker

  United States Capitol, Washington, DC

  

  Starts 01/03/2027SCHEDULED72% CONFIDENCEin 102 daysThe Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi^[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.

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  The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.

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• Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Mexico Elects a New Chamber of Deputies

  Instituto Nacional ElectoralPalacio Legislativo de San Lazaro, Mexico City, Mexico

  Starts 06/06/2027SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 256 daysWikipedia^[1] states "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico on 6 June 2027", the first Sunday of June set by Mexican electoral law.

  Mexicans elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies on 6 June 2027, the midterm test of Claudia Sheinbaum's supermajority, held alongside state elections.

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• Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Argentina Votes for a President and Congress

  Camara Nacional ElectoralPalacio del Congreso, Buenos Aires, Argentina

  Starts 10/24/2027SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to take place in Argentina on 24 October 2027", the fourth Sunday of October that Argentine law sets for a general election.

  Argentines choose a president and renew Congress on 24 October 2027, the first presidential election since Javier Milei's 2023 win.

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• Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Texas Picks a U.S. Senator in the 2026 Midterms

  Texas State Capitol, 1100 Congress Avenue, Austin, Texas

  

  Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULED72% CONFIDENCEin 41 daysPolymarket^[1][2] resolves on "the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election"; federal law sets Election Day on November 3, 2026, and the market's own end date is that day.

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   Polymarket

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  Texas votes for a U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Democrat James Talarico at 60% against Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, and its companion market gave Democrats a 61% chance of taking the chamber.

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• Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Guatemala Votes for a President and Congress

  Tribunal Supremo Electoral (Guatemala)Congress of the Republic, Guatemala City, Guatemala

  Starts 06/30/2027ESTIMATED60% CONFIDENCEin 280 daysWikipedia^[1] gives "June and August 2027 (presumptive)" and states the first round will be held "in June 2027" with a runoff in August; with only the month fixed, the pin takes the last day of June.

  Guatemalans elect a president, all 160 seats in Congress and 340 municipal governments in June 2027, with a presidential runoff in August if nobody wins outright.

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• Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Americans Vote in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election

  The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC

  

  Starts 11/07/2028SCHEDULED72% CONFIDENCEin 2.1 yearsFederal law sets Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, which falls on November 7 in 2028.^[1]

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  Election Day for the 2028 U.S. presidential race is November 7, 2028, and Kalshi's winner market was still wide open on 20 September 2026: J.D. Vance led at 22%, followed by Jon Ossoff at 12% and Marco Rubio at 9.6%. The winner takes office on January 20, 2029.

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• Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk

  El Salvador Votes Under Its New Re-election Rules

  Tribunal Supremo Electoral (El Salvador)Legislative Assembly, San Salvador, El Salvador

  Starts 02/28/2027SCHEDULED82% CONFIDENCEin 158 daysThe Wikipedia^[1] article's infobox gives the election date as 28 February 2027, the same day as the legislative election.

  Salvadorans elect a president and the Legislative Assembly on 28 February 2027, the first national vote since the country scrapped presidential term limits in 2025.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  US Fiscal Year 2028 Begins

  United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury

  

  10/01/2027 - 09/30/2028SCHEDULED83% CONFIDENCEin 1.0 yearsThe federal fiscal year is the 12-month period beginning on 1 October and ending on 30 September of the next calendar year, so fiscal 2028 runs 1 October 2027 to 30 September 2028.^[1]

  The United States federal fiscal year 2028 starts on 1 October 2027 - the date by which Congress must have funded the government or shut it down.

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• Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Spain Holds Its Nationwide Local Election Day

  Madrid City Hall, Plaza de Cibeles, Madrid, SpainJunta Electoral Central

  

  Starts 05/23/2027SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 242 daysThe Wikipedia^[1] article's infobox gives 23 May 2027, the date fixed by Spain's electoral law for the simultaneous local and regional polling day.

  Every Spanish municipality votes on 23 May 2027, alongside regional elections in twelve autonomous communities on the same day.

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• Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Canadians Vote in the Next Federal Election

  Centre Block, Parliament Hill, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

  

  Starts 10/15/2029SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 3.1 yearsThe Canada Elections Act fixes polling day as the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election, which is October 15, 2029; Kalshi's^[1] event ticker carries the same date.

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  Canada's fixed-date law puts the next general election on the third Monday of October 2029, which is October 15. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had the Liberal Party at 60%, the Conservative Party at 38% and the NDP at 3.5%; a lost confidence vote would bring the date forward.

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• Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Germany Elects Its Next Bundestag

  Reichstag building, Platz der Republik 1, Berlin, Germany

  

  Starts 03/25/2029ESTIMATED60% CONFIDENCEin 2.5 yearsNo date has been set. Kalshi^[1] dates its event to March 25, 2029, the last day the Basic Law's 46-to-48-month window allows after the current Bundestag first sat on March 25, 2025; a snap election would come earlier.

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  The Bundestag elected in February 2025 first sat on March 25, 2025, and the Basic Law requires a new election 46 to 48 months later - March 25, 2029 at the latest. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's winner market had the AfD at 85% and the CDU/CSU at 12%.

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• Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Micronesia Elects Its Congress

  Palikir, Pohnpei, Federated States of MicronesiaFSM National Election Office

  

  Starts 03/02/2027SCHEDULED83% CONFIDENCEin 160 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in the Federated States of Micronesia on 2 March 2027", sourced to the FSM National Election Office.

  The Federated States of Micronesia holds general elections on 2 March 2027 for its 14-member Congress, including the four state senators elected every four years.

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