Pins matching tag:Economy

The seven remaining OPEC+ countries hold their next monthly meeting on 4 October 2026 to decide required production for November, with Brent above $100 and Hormuz still restricting Gulf exports.

The October 6 release reports a $105.6 billion August goods-and-services deficit, up 13.7% from revised July figures. Imports rose faster than exports, reaching $420.8 billion.

The National Bank of Poland's Monetary Policy Council meets on 6-7 October 2026 and announces its rate decision on the 7th, with the reference rate at 3.75% after a cut in March and September inflation at 4.0%. Governor Glapiński's press conference follows on 8 October.

After talks in Beijing on 8-9 October 2026, the EU and China reached an understanding that Sefcovic said will halve Chinese hybrid and plug-in hybrid exports to the bloc, leaving the EV tariff dispute open.

CPCA preliminary data showed NEVs at a record 67.1% of China's September 2026 passenger-car retail sales on 1.141 million units; the final release put NEV retail at 1.084 million, down 16.7%, with penetration of 67%.

The IMF and World Bank Group gather more than 15,000 finance ministers, central bankers and development leaders at Bangkok's Queen Sirikit National Convention Center from 12 to 18 October 2026, Thailand's first Annual Meetings since 1991.

BLS reported September CPI inflation of 3.7% year over year and a seasonally adjusted 0.6% monthly increase. Gasoline rose 9.1% over the month; core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually.

The October 15–16 European Council meets in Brussels on energy costs, the next EU budget and support for Ukraine. Published previews describe negotiating positions; summit conclusions remain ahead.

China’s economy grew4.5% year on year in Q3 and4.6% over the first nine months, the NBS reported October19. The quarterly pace rose from4.3% in Q2; the full-year outcome is not yet known.

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry will publish its September 2026 export statistics on 20 October 2026, after August exports rose 9.1% to CHF 1.79 billion and pushed the first eight months of the year 1.7% above 2025.

The October 23 decision kept the key rate at 14%. The prior October 20 market snapshot had assigned a hold 86% probability on US$155,363.70 traded.

On October 21, Kalshi’s 25-basis-point hike contract quoted 71–72¢ versus 26–27¢ for a hold. Estimated dollar volume was US$156,982.09; the official decision is due October 28 at 09:45 Eastern, with the outcome still uncertain.

The Federal Reserve voted 10–2 on October 28, 2026 to hold its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00%. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point increase.

BEA reports September PCE prices rose 0.5% on the month and 3.6% from a year earlier; core prices rose 0.3% monthly and 3.1% yearly.

The ECB left its three key policy rates unchanged: deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing operations 2.65% and marginal lending facility 2.90%.

BEA’s advance estimate puts third-quarter real GDP growth at a 3.4% annual rate, up from 2.2% in Q2. The initial estimate is subject to revision.

Kalshi's KXWTI market for October 30, 2026 resolved on a WTI daily settlement price of US$104.12 per barrel, the December 2026 futures contract, up from US$90.42 a month earlier. Strikes up to US$103.99 resolved Yes and US$104.49 and above No.

Kalshi's October Brent contract settled at $112.35 per barrel, the one-minute close at 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026. The last pre-settlement book put its 50% point near $111-113, so the market was on point. Earlier forecast history is retained.

An October 30 Polymarket snapshot gives California Proposition 40 a 22.5% passage chance on USD 4.48 million reported volume. Voters decide November 3; competing measures could affect implementation.

A citizen initiative would lift the countywide sales tax from 7.75% to 8.25% for Tijuana River sewage fixes, wildfire and public safety, and health care, food aid and child care hit by federal cuts.

The 9th China International Import Expo runs 5-10 November 2026 at Shanghai's National Exhibition and Convention Center, with 53 national pavilions and more than 1,200 company exhibitors confirmed.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October 2026 Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on 6 November. On 3 November Kalshi priced payrolls above 0 at 82% and unemployment above 4.0% at 94%.

The one-year suspension of Section 301 fees on China-linked vessels expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on 9 November 2026 unless USTR publishes a new Federal Register notice, whatever the wider US-China truce says.

BLS publishes October 2026 consumer prices at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on 10 November. In the 6 November evening snapshot, Kalshi’s Yes bid/ask was 58–61% above a 0.2% headline monthly increase and 41–43% above a 0.2% core increase. These are market forecasts, not published inflation.

Organised by MAS, GFTN and the Association of Banks in Singapore, the festival runs 18-20 November 2026 with six stages themed 'The Coming Rewiring of the Financial System' and 70,000+ expected participants.

The 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting is scheduled for 18-19 November 2026 in Shenzhen, the third time China hosts, preceded by the APEC CEO Summit on 17-18 November.

OPEC+ ministers meet on 29 November 2026 for the group's twice-yearly ministerial, its second since the UAE left, with production levels agreed through December 2026 and maximum-capacity assessments due to set 2027 baselines.

Kalshi’s November Brent contract resolves to a one-minute closing price on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST. On the morning of November 10 Pacific, the Yes bid/ask crossed 50% near US$88 per barrel (52–54% above US$87.99, 42–44% above US$89.99, 30–32% above US$93.99), with about 112,470 traded contracts across 30 thresholds.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.

Polymarket's 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?' counts 25 bp cuts, including the December meeting. On November 2 traders priced zero cuts at 97.05%, with US$55.3 million traded.

The stopgap signed in September expires on 11 December 2026, the deadline for Congress to enact the twelve fiscal 2027 appropriations bills or pass another continuing resolution before agencies shut down.

Germany's statutory minimum wage goes up to €14.60 an hour on 1 January 2027, the second step of the largest increase the Minimum Wage Commission has recommended.

From 1 January 2027 plug-in hybrids, range extenders and electric commercial vehicles in China lose the annual vehicle and vessel tax exemption they have had since 2012; battery-electric passenger cars stay untaxed.

President Trump has said US tariffs on cars, trucks, auto parts and steel from Canada will rise to 50% on 1 January 2027, doubling the 25% now charged on Canadian autos, after trade talks collapsed in August.

The BLS Employment Situation report for December 2026, out at 8:30 a.m. ET on January 8, 2027, fixes the unemployment rate the year closes on. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had U-3 above 4.0% at 81% but only 5% above 5.0%, so traders expected a labour market that has loosened without cracking.

The October 2025 Busan truce (a 10-point cut to the US fentanyl tariff, general licences for Chinese rare-earth exports, US soybean purchases, paused port fees) now lapses on January 10, 2027. Scott Bessent announced the two-month extension from November 10 as Xi Jinping landed in Washington.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.

India's finance minister presents the Union Budget for 2027-28 in the Lok Sabha, by convention on 1 February at 11am.

The statutory deadline for the President to send the fiscal 2028 budget to Congress is the first Monday in February 2027 - a deadline no president has met in over a decade.

The 71st session of the UN Commission on the Status of Women runs from 8 to 19 March 2027 in New York, with the priority theme of speeding up gender equality under the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its April 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 63%, Cut 25bps 11%, Hike 25bps 8%.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.

Under the amended Olympic Wage ordinance, the minimum for Los Angeles hotel workers and LAX-area airport employees rises from $25.00 to $25.50 an hour on 1 July 2027, with the hotel health-benefit payment going from $4.25 to $6.00.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.

The United States federal fiscal year 2028 starts on 1 October 2027 - the date by which Congress must have funded the government or shut it down.

The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.