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Job growth totals 253,000 in April, beating expectations even as the U.S. economy slows
CONFIRMED94% CONFIDENCE3.4 years agoHappened as dated, per cnbc.com[1]: "…ollowing the jobs report. " Wall Street opened sharply higher following the jobs news, with the Dow…"Nonfarm payrolls increased 253,000 for April, beating Wall Street estimates for growth of 180,000.
The unemployment rate was 3.4% against an estimate for 3.6% and tied for the lowest level since 1969.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.5% for the month and increased 4.4% from a year ago, both higher than expected.
0.69The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".KalshiThe FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.0.62Microsoft to cut 18,000 jobs in the next year
CONFIRMED90% CONFIDENCE12.2 years agoHappened as dated, per wpcentral.com[1]: "Your membership journey starts here. Keep exploring and earning more as a member. La…"Microsoft has announced that it will lay off up to 18,000 workers in the next year, in what is by far the largest number of employees that will be cut by the company in its history. In a letter sent to employees earlier this morning that Microsoft also released to the public, company CEO Satya Nadella confirmed that 12,500 of the job losses will be due to the company's acquisition of Nokia's Devices and Services division in April, when it added 25,000 new workers.0.60US Fiscal Year 2028 Begins
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury
SCHEDULED83% CONFIDENCEin 1.0 yearsThe federal fiscal year is the 12-month period beginning on 1 October and ending on 30 September of the next calendar year, so fiscal 2028 runs 1 October 2027 to 30 September 2028.[1]The United States federal fiscal year 2028 starts on 1 October 2027 - the date by which Congress must have funded the government or shut it down.0.60Traders Weigh a US Recession Through 2027
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA
ESTIMATED74% CONFIDENCEin 1.3 yearsThe market asks only whether the two negative quarters fall anywhere between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, so there is no single day to hang it on; by the convention for a year-only date the pin takes the last day of 2027. Kalshi[1][3] does not expire it until January 31, 2028, when the advance estimate for Q4 2027 is due. The 25% is the chance on Kalshi’s trade panel, which sits beside a 24¢ Yes price.KalshiPolymarketKalshi’s recession market for 2027 prices the chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates — despite the KXRECSSNBER ticker, no NBER call is involved. On 20 September 2026 it sat at 25%, its 2026 contract at 6%, and Polymarket’s cumulative "recession by end of 2027" book, which also counts an NBER announcement, was higher still at 34.5%.0.59Babcock & Wilcox Reports Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
1200, East Market Street, East End, Goodyear Heights, Akron, Summit County, Ohio, 44305, United StatesBabcock & Wilcox…
CONFIRMED86% CONFIDENCE203 days agoStated as firm: the release is datelined "(AKRON, Ohio – March 4, 2026)" with no clock time, and the Form 8-K furnishing it as Exhibit 99.1 shows "Accepted 2026-03-04 06:40:37" (ET) on SEC[3][4][5] EDGAR, so the pin is timed to 06:40 ET (11:40 UTC); the call to discuss it came later, on "Monday, March 16, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET".Fourth-quarter revenue was $161.0 million and adjusted EBITDA $16.4 million, and full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose 107% to $43.7 million. Backlog reached $2.8 billion with the $2.4 billion Base Electron AI data-centre power project announced the same morning.0.59The UPS-Teamsters Contract Runs Out
SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 1.9 yearsThe contract agreed in 2023 runs to 31 July 2028; FreightWaves[1] reports Teamsters president Sean O'Brien saying the union is ready to strike when it expires.The five-year UPS-Teamsters agreement covering some 340,000 workers expires on 31 July 2028, and the union's president has already said a strike is coming.0.59Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 77 daysThe Federal Reserve’s[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.KalshiPolymarketThe Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.0.58Visa Cuts About 2,600 Jobs, 7% of Its Workforce
CONFIRMED88% CONFIDENCE57 days agoCNBC[1] (published 28 July 2026) reports Visa "plans to cut about 7% of its workforce" per a memo and that "Impacted employees will start to be contacted on Tuesday"; American Banker[3] (28 July) says McInerney discussed the cuts "during Tuesday's earnings call".Visa is eliminating about 2,600 roles, roughly 7% of its workforce and mostly in technology and product, with CEO Ryan McInerney saying AI is reshaping how work gets done.$563M0.58US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United States
SCHEDULED84% CONFIDENCEin 8 daysThe US federal fiscal year runs 1 October to 30 September, so fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026 and ends on 30 September 2027.[1]PolymarketFiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.0.58The Fed Sets Rates at the January 2027 Meeting
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 126 daysThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "January 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".KalshiThe FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.0.58Babcock & Wilcox Reports Q1 2026 Results, Revenue Up 44%
CONFIRMED85% CONFIDENCE135 days agoStated as firm: the release is datelined "(AKRON, Ohio – May 11, 2026)" with no clock time; the Form 8-K furnishing it (Item 2.02) shows "Accepted 2026-05-11 06:04:10" (ET) on SEC[4][5] EDGAR and Yahoo[6] Finance reports shares "surged more than 11% in premarket trading on Monday", so the pin is timed to 06:04 ET (10:04 UTC), ahead of the "Monday, May 11, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET" call.First-quarter revenue rose 44% to $214.4 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 296% to $16.1 million, while $81.8 million of non-cash warrant and stock costs left a $79.6 million net loss. Backlog stood at $2.7 billion and the pipeline passed $14 billion.0.58
