The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
The market asks only whether the two negative quarters fall anywhere between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, so there is no single day to hang it on; by the convention for a year-only date the pin takes the last day of 2027. Kalshi[3] does not expire it until January 31, 2028, when the advance estimate for Q4 2027 is due. The 25% is the chance on Kalshi’s trade panel, which sits beside a 24¢ Yes price.
Polymarket’s cumulative version of the same question prices 34.5%, a useful cross-check on Kalshi’s[1][3] 24% for a recession starting in 2027 specifically.
The 2026 event on the same Kalshi[1] series, at 6% on 3.5M contracts, is the baseline the 2027 market is priced against.
The NBER’s dating committee page explains the retrospective call these markets settle on, which is why the market runs well past the year it covers.
The July 4, 2026 episode reads small caps sliding while the S&P 500 makes highs as the market pricing in a 2027 recession — the same year Kalshi’s[1][3] NBER[4] market has at 24%.
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