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The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 175 daysThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".KalshiThe FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.0.85The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 308 daysThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".KalshiThe FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.0.85The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".KalshiThe FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.0.84The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 357 daysThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".KalshiThe FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.0.84The Fed Sets Rates at the April 2027 Meeting
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 217 daysThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "April 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".KalshiThe FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its April 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 63%, Cut 25bps 11%, Hike 25bps 8%.0.84The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".KalshiThe FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.0.84The Fed Sets Rates at the January 2027 Meeting
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 126 daysThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "January 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".KalshiThe FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.0.84Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 77 daysThe Federal Reserve’s[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.KalshiPolymarketThe Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.0.77Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC
SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 35 daysThe Federal Reserve's[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.KalshiThe Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.0.77Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today pic.twitter.com/OWDq1ceIEx
— Jay Cal (@Jay__Cale) May 8, 2023Tweet from @Jay__Cale (8 May 2023): the market-implied probability of another 25bps Fed rate hike in June doubled in a day, from 8.5% to 16.6%.0.72The Fed's rate-setting body said it would raise its benchmark rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level since 2007
The increase is the 10th straight interest-rate hike since last March in what has been the most aggressive rate-hiking regime since the 1980s.
0.72US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury
SCHEDULED84% CONFIDENCEin 8 daysThe US federal fiscal year runs 1 October to 30 September, so fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026 and ends on 30 September 2027.[1]PolymarketFiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.0.69
