Labour09/21/2026@EconDesk
The UPS-Teamsters Contract Runs Out
UPS headquarters, Atlanta, Georgia, United StatesUnited Parcel Service…
Starts 07/31/2028SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 1.9 yearsThe contract agreed in 2023 runs to 31 July 2028; FreightWaves^[1] reports Teamsters president Sean O'Brien saying the union is ready to strike when it expires.
The five-year UPS-Teamsters agreement covering some 340,000 workers expires on 31 July 2028, and the union's president has already said a strike is coming.
0.66
Law09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Clinton Signs Permanent Normal Trade Relations With China
The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC, United StatesThe White House
Starts 10/10/2000CONFIRMED 78% CONFIDENCE26.0 years agoThe Statutes at Large text carries the note "Oct. 10, 2000 - [H.R. 4444]" against the enacting clause of Public Law 106-286.^[1]
Public Law 106-286 ended the annual congressional fight over China's trade status and cleared the last American obstacle to its entry into the WTO. It is the single act that opened the United States market to Chinese manufacturing on permanent terms.
0.66
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Trump Greets Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews
Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, United StatesThe White House
Starts 09/23/2026 10:01PMCONFIRMED 84% CONFIDENCE1 day agoIt happened: The Week^[2] reports Xi and Peng Liyuan "arrived at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland at 6.01pm local time", and AP via PBS^[6] describes Trump greeting them on the tarmac.
Trump and Melania Trump met Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan at the foot of a 100-foot red carpet at Joint Base Andrews at 6:01pm on 23 September 2026, a welcome US presidents almost never give a visiting head of state. As Xi landed, Scott Bessent announced that the US-China trade truce was extended to January 10.
0.64
Labour09/21/2026@EconDesk
The UAW's Detroit Three Contracts Expire
Detroit, Michigan, United StatesUnited Auto Workers
Starts 04/30/2028SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 1.6 yearsThe four-and-a-half-year agreements ratified in late 2023 expire on 30 April 2028, a date union leaders set deliberately so that workers could strike on 1 May, International Workers' Day.^[1]
The UAW's contracts with General Motors, Ford and Stellantis run out on 30 April 2028 - a date the union chose so members could strike on May Day.
0.64
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
The United States and China Establish Diplomatic Relations
Embassy of the United States, Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang, Beijing, ChinaUS Department of State
Starts 01/01/1979CONFIRMED 82% CONFIDENCE47.7 years agoThe Office of the Historian states that "the Joint Communiqué stated that the United States would begin official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China on January 1, 1979, and that the two countries would open Embassies on March 1". The agreement itself was announced on 15 December 1978.^[1]
From 1 January 1979 Washington recognised the People's Republic as the sole legal government of China and withdrew recognition from Taipei, ending thirty years in which the United States had treated the Republic of China on Taiwan as the government of all China.
0.64
Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Will the US-Iran Ceasefire Last Through October 31?
Starts 10/31/2026 ESTIMATED 68% CONFIDENCEin 37 daysOctober 31 is the latest date on Polymarket's^[1] ceasefire ladder, where traders price it at 46%; the ceasefire could end sooner.
Polymarket
Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.
0.63
Law09/24/2026@LawDesk
EU General Court Refuses to Suspend Commission's VMware Document Demand
Court of Justice of the European Union (General Court), Boulevard Konrad Adenauer, Kirchberg, 2514 LuxembourgBroadcom…
Starts 08/03/2026CONFIRMED 86% CONFIDENCE52 days agoThe order on EUR-Lex is headed "ORDER OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE GENERAL COURT 3 August 2026" and signed "Luxembourg, 3 August 2026"; EUR-Lex lists its date of document as 03/08/2026, and no time is published.^[1]
The General Court's President dismissed Broadcom's bid to suspend the Commission's demand for communications with in-house lawyers qualified outside the EU, finding no prima facie case and that the Commission's interest in enforcing competition rules prevails (T-280/26 R). The annulment action continues.
0.62
Economy09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
The United States and China Sign the Phase One Trade Deal
East Room, The White House, Washington, DC, United StatesThe White House
Starts 01/15/2020CONFIRMED 83% CONFIDENCE6.7 years agoUSTR^[1][3] states that "the United States and China signed an historic and enforceable agreement on a Phase One trade deal on January 15, 2020".
After eighteen months of escalating tariffs the two sides signed an 'historic and enforceable agreement' in the East Room on 15 January 2020 — purchase commitments, intellectual-property rules and a ban on forced technology transfer. Most of the tariffs stayed in place.
0.62
Policy09/21/2026@EconDesk
Homeland Security Goes Dark for a Record 76 Days
Department of Homeland Security Headquarters, St. Elizabeths West Campus, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of Homeland Security
02/14/2026 - 04/30/2026CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE222 days agoDHS was without routine funding from 14 February 2026 until the President signed the funding bill on 30 April 2026, a record 76 days.^[1]
A two-week stopgap for DHS alone ran out on 14 February 2026, and the department stayed unfunded for 76 days - the longest shutdown of a single agency in US history - until the President signed a bipartisan bill on 30 April.
0.62
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
The United States and China Issue the Shanghai Communiqué
Jinjiang Hotel, Maoming South Road, Shanghai, ChinaUS Department of State
Starts 02/27/1972CONFIRMED 87% CONFIDENCE54.6 years agoForeign Relations of the United States prints the joint statement under the dateline "Shanghai, February 27, 1972". It is often dated 28 February, the day it reached readers in the United States and the visit's last day; this pin follows the document's own dateline.^[1]
At the end of Nixon's visit the two governments published a joint statement setting out, separately, what each believed about Taiwan. Washington said it 'acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain that there is but one China' — the sentence US policy has rested on ever since.
0.62
Policy05/11/2023@ThePinGang
Xi Jinping's 48-hour plan to invade Taiwan, 2027 is the date that he wants the Chinese army to be ‘ready’ to take back Taiwan
Starts 01/01/2027 UNVERIFIED 78% CONFIDENCEin 99 days
Now, that doesn’t mean that they will invade in 2027, but certainly implies a significant milestone.
0.60
Architecture09/14/2026@BuildDesk
Goldin Finance 117 Targeted to Finally Complete in Tianjin
Goldin Finance 117, Xiqing District, Tianjin, China
Starts 06/30/2027ESTIMATED 65% CONFIDENCEin 279 daysGiven as scheduled, per the source^[1]: "In April 2025, it was announced that construction would resume and be completed in 2027."
After a decade standing unfinished as the world's tallest abandoned building, Tianjin's 597-metre Goldin Finance 117 resumed construction under a state-led rescue and is targeted to complete in 2027.
0.59

2 months late

Treasury Secretary Bessent, per NBC News^[1]: the Busan Agreement "that was scheduled to end on Nov. 10 — that is going to be extended until Jan. 10".

First promised for 11/10/2026; now 2 months later. Stated: the truce was "scheduled to end on Nov. 10" and on 23 September 2026 was "extended until Jan. 10", two months later.

Start: Jan 10, 202775% CONFIDENCEfrom the source

The Extended US-China Busan Trade Truce Runs Out

The October 2025 Busan truce (a 10-point cut to the US fentanyl tariff, general licences for Chinese rare-earth exports, US soybean purchases, paused port fees) now lapses on January 10, 2027. Scott Bessent announced the two-month extension from November 10 as Xi Jinping landed in Washington.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on 23 September 2026: "We will extend what we call the 'Busan Agreement' — the economic détente between the two countries that was scheduled to end on Nov. 10 — that is going to be extended until Jan. 10"^[1][2]
He announced it as Trump welcomed Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews for his 23-25 September state visit, after talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng^[2][3]
Bessent said a larger economic package might be agreed by January, or the truce could be extended again, with announcements on agricultural purchases and financial services also expected^[1]
The truce struck in October 2025 cut Washington's fentanyl-related tariff on Chinese goods from 20% to 10%, lowering the overall US tariff on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%^[3]
China agreed to issue general licences for exports of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite, and to buy at least 12 million tonnes of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tonnes a year through 2028; both sides paused shipping-industry investigations and port fees on each other's vessels^[3]

@EconDesk

References 377% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]75%
nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-china-extend-trade-truce-trump-rcna599525
nbcnews.com· Posted Sep 24, 2026· Starts Jan 10, 2027 ✓· 33% of score
Treasury Secretary Bessent, per NBC News: the Busan Agreement "that was scheduled to end on Nov. 10 — that is going to be extended until Jan. 10".
[2]85%
China's Xi kicks off state visit to Washington with a rare planeside welcome from Trump | PBS News
pbs.org· Published Sep 23, 2026· 33% of score
AP via PBS: Bessent said the truce, set to expire November 10, is extended "until January", specifically January 10.
[3]72%
US and China extend Busan trade truce to January 10 as Xi arrives for Trump summit
investinglive.com· Published Sep 23, 2026· 33% of score
Lists what the October 2025 truce covers (fentanyl tariff 20% to 10%, rare-earth general licences, soybean purchases, port-fee pause) and the new January 10, 2027 expiry.^[1]

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Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most.

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Labour09/21/2026@EconDesk
The UPS-Teamsters Contract Runs Out
UPS headquarters, Atlanta, Georgia, United StatesUnited Parcel Service…
Starts 07/31/2028SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 1.9 yearsThe contract agreed in 2023 runs to 31 July 2028; FreightWaves^[1] reports Teamsters president Sean O'Brien saying the union is ready to strike when it expires.
The five-year UPS-Teamsters agreement covering some 340,000 workers expires on 31 July 2028, and the union's president has already said a strike is coming.
0.66
Law09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Clinton Signs Permanent Normal Trade Relations With China
The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC, United StatesThe White House
Starts 10/10/2000CONFIRMED 78% CONFIDENCE26.0 years agoThe Statutes at Large text carries the note "Oct. 10, 2000 - [H.R. 4444]" against the enacting clause of Public Law 106-286.^[1]
Public Law 106-286 ended the annual congressional fight over China's trade status and cleared the last American obstacle to its entry into the WTO. It is the single act that opened the United States market to Chinese manufacturing on permanent terms.
0.66
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Trump Greets Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews
Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, United StatesThe White House
Starts 09/23/2026 10:01PMCONFIRMED 84% CONFIDENCE1 day agoIt happened: The Week^[2] reports Xi and Peng Liyuan "arrived at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland at 6.01pm local time", and AP via PBS^[6] describes Trump greeting them on the tarmac.
Trump and Melania Trump met Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan at the foot of a 100-foot red carpet at Joint Base Andrews at 6:01pm on 23 September 2026, a welcome US presidents almost never give a visiting head of state. As Xi landed, Scott Bessent announced that the US-China trade truce was extended to January 10.
0.64
Labour09/21/2026@EconDesk
The UAW's Detroit Three Contracts Expire
Detroit, Michigan, United StatesUnited Auto Workers
Starts 04/30/2028SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 1.6 yearsThe four-and-a-half-year agreements ratified in late 2023 expire on 30 April 2028, a date union leaders set deliberately so that workers could strike on 1 May, International Workers' Day.^[1]
The UAW's contracts with General Motors, Ford and Stellantis run out on 30 April 2028 - a date the union chose so members could strike on May Day.
0.64
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
The United States and China Establish Diplomatic Relations
Embassy of the United States, Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang, Beijing, ChinaUS Department of State
Starts 01/01/1979CONFIRMED 82% CONFIDENCE47.7 years agoThe Office of the Historian states that "the Joint Communiqué stated that the United States would begin official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China on January 1, 1979, and that the two countries would open Embassies on March 1". The agreement itself was announced on 15 December 1978.^[1]
From 1 January 1979 Washington recognised the People's Republic as the sole legal government of China and withdrew recognition from Taipei, ending thirty years in which the United States had treated the Republic of China on Taiwan as the government of all China.
0.64
Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Will the US-Iran Ceasefire Last Through October 31?
Starts 10/31/2026 ESTIMATED 68% CONFIDENCEin 37 daysOctober 31 is the latest date on Polymarket's^[1] ceasefire ladder, where traders price it at 46%; the ceasefire could end sooner.
Polymarket
Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.
0.63
Law09/24/2026@LawDesk
EU General Court Refuses to Suspend Commission's VMware Document Demand
Court of Justice of the European Union (General Court), Boulevard Konrad Adenauer, Kirchberg, 2514 LuxembourgBroadcom…
Starts 08/03/2026CONFIRMED 86% CONFIDENCE52 days agoThe order on EUR-Lex is headed "ORDER OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE GENERAL COURT 3 August 2026" and signed "Luxembourg, 3 August 2026"; EUR-Lex lists its date of document as 03/08/2026, and no time is published.^[1]
The General Court's President dismissed Broadcom's bid to suspend the Commission's demand for communications with in-house lawyers qualified outside the EU, finding no prima facie case and that the Commission's interest in enforcing competition rules prevails (T-280/26 R). The annulment action continues.
0.62
Economy09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
The United States and China Sign the Phase One Trade Deal
East Room, The White House, Washington, DC, United StatesThe White House
Starts 01/15/2020CONFIRMED 83% CONFIDENCE6.7 years agoUSTR^[1][3] states that "the United States and China signed an historic and enforceable agreement on a Phase One trade deal on January 15, 2020".
After eighteen months of escalating tariffs the two sides signed an 'historic and enforceable agreement' in the East Room on 15 January 2020 — purchase commitments, intellectual-property rules and a ban on forced technology transfer. Most of the tariffs stayed in place.
0.62
Policy09/21/2026@EconDesk
Homeland Security Goes Dark for a Record 76 Days
Department of Homeland Security Headquarters, St. Elizabeths West Campus, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of Homeland Security
02/14/2026 - 04/30/2026CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE222 days agoDHS was without routine funding from 14 February 2026 until the President signed the funding bill on 30 April 2026, a record 76 days.^[1]
A two-week stopgap for DHS alone ran out on 14 February 2026, and the department stayed unfunded for 76 days - the longest shutdown of a single agency in US history - until the President signed a bipartisan bill on 30 April.
0.62
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
The United States and China Issue the Shanghai Communiqué
Jinjiang Hotel, Maoming South Road, Shanghai, ChinaUS Department of State
Starts 02/27/1972CONFIRMED 87% CONFIDENCE54.6 years agoForeign Relations of the United States prints the joint statement under the dateline "Shanghai, February 27, 1972". It is often dated 28 February, the day it reached readers in the United States and the visit's last day; this pin follows the document's own dateline.^[1]
At the end of Nixon's visit the two governments published a joint statement setting out, separately, what each believed about Taiwan. Washington said it 'acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain that there is but one China' — the sentence US policy has rested on ever since.
0.62
Policy05/11/2023@ThePinGang
Xi Jinping's 48-hour plan to invade Taiwan, 2027 is the date that he wants the Chinese army to be ‘ready’ to take back Taiwan
Starts 01/01/2027 UNVERIFIED 78% CONFIDENCEin 99 days
Now, that doesn’t mean that they will invade in 2027, but certainly implies a significant milestone.
0.60
Architecture09/14/2026@BuildDesk
Goldin Finance 117 Targeted to Finally Complete in Tianjin
Goldin Finance 117, Xiqing District, Tianjin, China
Starts 06/30/2027ESTIMATED 65% CONFIDENCEin 279 daysGiven as scheduled, per the source^[1]: "In April 2025, it was announced that construction would resume and be completed in 2027."
After a decade standing unfinished as the world's tallest abandoned building, Tianjin's 597-metre Goldin Finance 117 resumed construction under a state-led rescue and is targeted to complete in 2027.
0.59

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