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The United States and China Sign the Phase One Trade Deal
CONFIRMED83% CONFIDENCE6.7 years agoUSTR[1][3] states that "the United States and China signed an historic and enforceable agreement on a Phase One trade deal on January 15, 2020".After eighteen months of escalating tariffs the two sides signed an 'historic and enforceable agreement' in the East Room on 15 January 2020 — purchase commitments, intellectual-property rules and a ban on forced technology transfer. Most of the tariffs stayed in place.0.71Clinton Signs Permanent Normal Trade Relations With China
CONFIRMED78% CONFIDENCE26.0 years agoThe Statutes at Large text carries the note "Oct. 10, 2000 - [H.R. 4444]" against the enacting clause of Public Law 106-286.[1]Public Law 106-286 ended the annual congressional fight over China's trade status and cleared the last American obstacle to its entry into the WTO. It is the single act that opened the United States market to Chinese manufacturing on permanent terms.0.68China Joins the World Trade Organization
CONFIRMED82% CONFIDENCE24.8 years agoThe WTO's[1][3] own member page states that "China has been a member of WTO since 11 December 2001", thirty days after the Doha Ministerial Conference approved the accession on 10 November.China became the WTO's 143rd member on 11 December 2001, fifteen years after applying. Its export share of world trade roughly quadrupled over the next two decades, and the bargain struck in Doha is still what the tariff argument is about.0.67China's Ministry of Commerce Cuts Rare Earth Export Quotas by 72%
CONFIRMED90% CONFIDENCE16.2 years agoBloomberg[2] reported the Ministry of Commerce's 72% cut to second-half 2010 rare earth export quotas, citing the official quota figures, on July 9, 2010.China's Ministry of Commerce slashed its second-half 2010 rare earth export quotas by 72%, tightening its grip on the roughly 97% of global rare earth supply it mined at the time. The move, framed as an environmental crackdown on unregulated mining, sent rare earth prices soaring within days.0.65US Export Controls Cut China Off From Advanced Chips
Herbert C. Hoover Building, 1401 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC, United StatesBureau of Industry and Security
CONFIRMED80% CONFIDENCE4.0 years agoThe rule's own DATES section reads "Effective on October 7, 2022, are the following instructions: 7 (§ 740.2), 9 (§ 740.10), 11 (§ 742.6), 17 (§ 744.23), and 25"; later instructions took effect on 12 and 21 October. No end date: the controls carry no sunset and have since been widened.[1]The Commerce rule that took effect on 7 October 2022 put advanced computing chips, the tools to make them and the Americans who service them behind a licence. It is the sharpest single break in the technology relationship since 1979.0.64China rolls out a further 1 trillion yuan in economic stimulus ($146 billion dollars)
CONFIRMED87% CONFIDENCE4.1 years agoHappened as dated, per the pin description: "…ng infrastructure projects. Tight rules were announced alongside the measures that require the proje…"Among the allowances, state policy banks were given an additional 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) focused mainly on financing infrastructure projects. Tight rules were announced alongside the measures that require the projects to be profit-making and targeted.
Local governments were given the green light to use more than 500 billion yuan ($73 billion) of existing special bond quotas and were promised reduced financing costs through interest-rate changes.
Amid an energy crisis sparked by severe droughts and heat waves, the cabinet said central-government-run electricity firms will be allowed to sell 200 billion yuan ($29 billion) in special debt to ensure adequate energy supply.
$146B0.64The United States and China Establish Diplomatic Relations
CONFIRMED82% CONFIDENCE47.7 years agoThe Office of the Historian states that "the Joint Communiqué stated that the United States would begin official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China on January 1, 1979, and that the two countries would open Embassies on March 1". The agreement itself was announced on 15 December 1978.[1]From 1 January 1979 Washington recognised the People's Republic as the sole legal government of China and withdrew recognition from Taipei, ending thirty years in which the United States had treated the Republic of China on Taiwan as the government of all China.0.62Goldman estimates the debt racked up by China’s provincial governments at $23 trillion — 126% of gross domestic product
Some context pic.twitter.com/t9eaGpfuuv
— Alexander Stahel ???? (@BurggrabenH) April 24, 2023Tweet from @BurggrabenH (19 April 2023) citing Goldman Sachs: the debt of China's provincial governments is estimated at $23 trillion, 126% of gross domestic product.0.62Qin Shi Huang Unifies China’s Border Walls Into the Great Wall
Lintao County, Gansu, China
ESTIMATED68% CONFIDENCE2246.7 years agoHistory.com[3] and the Qin dynasty's Wikipedia[2] entry date Qin Shi Huang's order to join the northern border walls into one system to around 220 BCE, without a more precise date surviving.Around 220 BCE, China’s first emperor ordered the rival kingdoms’ old border walls linked into one defensive line, the earliest version of what became the Great Wall.0.61Egypt Signs $4.5BN Contract for Its First High-Speed Rail Line
CONFIRMED88% CONFIDENCE5.1 years agoHappened as dated, per the source[1]: "The Siemens-led consortium was awarded a $4.5 billion contract to build the lines from Ain Sokhna to Marsa Matruh and to Alexandria in September 2021".A Siemens-led consortium signed a $4.5 billion contract to build Egypt's first electrified high-speed rail line, aiming to replace one of the world's deadliest rail networks.$4.500.60US and Taiwan Sign a $250 Billion Chip Investment Deal
CONFIRMED86% CONFIDENCE251 days agoCNBC[1], published 15 January 2026: 'The U.S. and Taiwan have reached a trade agreement ... the Department of Commerce announced Thursday'; USTR's[2] February fact sheet dates the 'Memorandum of Understanding signed by AIT and TECRO on January 15, 2026'. No signing time is given, so it is an all-day date.A memorandum signed in Washington commits Taiwanese chipmakers such as TSMC to at least $250 billion of new US investment plus $250 billion in Taiwan credit guarantees, in return for a 15% tariff cap and Section 232 chip-tariff exemptions for companies building US fabs.0.60Will China Invade Taiwan Before 2027?
Presidential Office Building, 122 Chongqing South Road, Taipei, Taiwan
ESTIMATED63% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysNothing is scheduled: the pin is dated to the market's own deadline, December 31, 2026, the last day the contract can resolve Yes, and the market page shows that only a 4% chance.[1]PolymarketPolymarketPolymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.0.60
