Poland's Rate Council Decides on the 3.75% Reference Rate

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the April 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 04/28/2027 6:00PM UTCSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 207 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "April 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

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  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its April 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 63%, Cut 25bps 11%, Hike 25bps 8%.

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• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the January 2026 FOMC Meeting With Two Dissents for a Cut

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 01/28/2026 7:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better248 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 28 January 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 27-28 January meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

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  The FOMC left the federal funds target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 28 January 2026 by a 10-2 vote, with Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller preferring a quarter-point cut.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 07/28/2027 6:00PM UTCSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 298 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.

  0.61

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 10/27/2027 6:00PM UTCSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 1.1 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.

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• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 3.50%-3.75% at the December 2025 FOMC Meeting With Three Dissents

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 12/10/2025 7:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better297 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 10 December 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 9-10 December meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

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  •   

  The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 10 December 2025 by a 9-3 vote and began buying shorter-term Treasury securities to keep reserves ample.

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• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Holds Rates at the July 2026 FOMC Meeting With Three Dissents in Favour of a Hike

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 07/29/2026 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better66 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 29 July 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 28-29 July meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC kept the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 29 July 2026 by a 9-3 vote, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan preferring a quarter-point increase.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 09/15/2027 6:00PM UTCSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 347 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.

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• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the March 2026 FOMC Meeting and Flags Middle East Uncertainty

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 03/18/2026 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better199 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 18 March 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 17-18 March meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 18 March 2026 by an 11-1 vote, adding that developments in the Middle East made the outlook uncertain.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 03/17/2027 6:00PM UTCSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 165 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.

  0.60

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the January 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 01/27/2027 7:00PM UTCSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 116 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "January 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.

  0.60

  11
• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 06/09/2027 6:00PM UTCSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 249 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "June 8-9" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.

  0.60

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• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Holds Rates at the June 2026 FOMC Meeting Under Chair Warsh and Removes the Easing Bias

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 06/17/2026 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins88% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 88%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better108 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3][4] statement is dated 17 June 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 16-17 June meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[5] and Polymarket^[6] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  At the first meeting led by Kevin Warsh, the FOMC voted 12-0 on 17 June 2026 to keep the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, and its projections moved from cuts to a hike by year-end.

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