The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
Polymarket[2] resolves on "the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election"; federal law sets Election Day on November 3, 2026, and the market's own end date is that day.
The chamber market prices the Democratic Party at 61% to win the Senate in the same election, which is why a Texas seat changing hands matters beyond the state.[1]
The Democratic nominee gives a campaign interview on August 29, 2026 framed as the Texas Senate race against Ken Paxton, which confirms the two-name contest the market prices.[1]
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